Friday, November 4 closes out the workweek with a tantalizing 12-game main slate locking at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s look at the player pool and discuss the top NBA DFS picks today for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. As always, you can head over to the Stokastic NBA DFS & Fantasy Basketball home page for all the fantasy basketball content you need for any given slate. Now we shall dive into our NBA DFS Building Blocks.
NBA DFS Building Blocks Today: Friday, November 4
Core Play of the Day — Kevin Durant: Brooklyn Nets-Washington Wizards
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 56.61 | FanDuel: 54.62
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 27.1% | FanDuel: 32.7%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,300 | FanDuel: $10,400
Brooklyn has become a laughingstock in the NBA with a myriad of player and internal front office issues. Clearly this is not what the team envisioned when signing both Kevin Duran and Kyrie Irving during free agency prior to the 2019-20 season. Durant missed that entire year with an Achilles issue, and he has played in just 98 of 156 (63%) possible games. Irving has missed time for both injuries and idiocy playing in only 111 of 228 (49%) games and now he is suspended indefinitely for anti-Semitic remarks.
Durant is coming back to his hometown tonight to take on the Wizards in Washington, DC. Once again, the 34-year-old has been his typically efficient self and he is averaging just over 50 fantasy points per game. Since the beginning of last year, Durant has averaged 1.27 fantasy points per minute with Irving on the court and 1.38 without per NBA WOWY.
Second-year head coach Wes Unseld Jr. has helped improve the Wizards defensive efficiency to a middle-of-the-pack unit each of the last two years after they languished in the bottom two slots the three seasons preceding his arrival. They are still allowing 110.0 points per 100 possessions, but no longer playing at a breakneck pace. Durant should thrive in this matchup as Washington is more of a team/system defense than one with a lockdown defender.
The absence of Irving along with Ben Simmons (knee) also solidifies minutes and additional opportunities for Royce O’Neale, Edmond Sumner and Nicolas Claxton via the trickledown effect. They can be sprinkled in across lineups or as part of a mini-game stack with Durant for added synergy.
Finally, the discount dandies are plentiful today and it is easy to pair Giannis Antetokounmpo or Luka Doncic on lineups with Durant that are less than 5% below the current optimal lineup based on the first run median fantasy projections.
Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors-New Orleans Pelicans
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 45.98 | FanDuel: 43.77
- Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 6.6% | FanDuel: 1.9%
- DFS Salary: DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $10,200
Tonight is a back-to-back for the Warriors and the final game of a five stop East Coast swing. Currently Stephen Curry and his compadres are on a four-game losing streak, though it is certainly not a reflection of his production.
In these games, Curry is averaging 36.7 minutes with 53 fantasy points. He is averaging 20.5 field goal attempts, including 10.3 from beyond the arc which has resulted in 31.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 1.0 steals per game.
The Warriors are 3-6 with tanking teams like Oklahoma City and San Antonio outpacing their record. Golden State does not play against until Monday when they host the Kings and then they are off until next Friday when the Cavaliers come to town. While this is a back-to-back and the third game in four nights, coach Steve Kerr needs to lead his team to a win and he cannot do that without Curry. Tournaments only, but do not let Curry go overlooked in the scramble leading up to lock. It appears that coach Steve Kerr is going to take a likely schedule loss as Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins have all been ruled out tonight. This moves the rest of the ambulatory Warriors into prominent consideration as value plays.
Additional NBA DFS Picks Today – Sports Wagering Opportunities
Ayo Dosunmu has a 3.5 over/under rebound prop for his matchup against the Celtics tonight. The Stokastic NBA player projections have him for 4.3 rebounds which works out to a 63% win rate, but a hefty 29% xROI with this wager currently available at +106 on the over. Dosunmu has at least four rebounds in seven of his eight games this season. This season Dosunmu is averaging 5.2 rebounds per 36 minutes and for his career he averages 3.8 per 36 minutes.
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Philadelphia 76ers Value Plays
James Harden could miss up to a month with his foot injury and Joel Embiid (illness) has missed the last two games and is questionable tonight. The DraftKings salary algorithm apparently was unaware that Harden is missing time as it inexplicably has Tyrese Maxey with a paltry $6,500 salary. FanDuel at least was paying attention and they have Maxey listed at $8,500.
Over his last five games, the third-year guard is averaging 38 minutes and 19.4 field goal attempts with 8.2 from beyond the arc. While his torrid conversion rate is likely to dip below 50%, in this stretch he is averaging 29.8 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.2 combined blocks and steals.
De’Anthony Melton missed Wednesday’s game with a sore back, though in his four preceding outings he averaged 26.7 minutes with 12.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.1 combined blocks and steals. This works out to 1.08 fantasy points per minute, and he is an excellent value option tonight. Tobias Harris also stands out on DraftKings while a healthy Embiid looks good on both of the main NBA DFS sites.
Charlotte Hornets Value Plays
LaMelo Ball (ankle) is joined by Gordon Hayward (shoulder) as being listed out tonight. Cody Martin (quad) and Terry Rozier (ankle) are both doubtful and have not played in over two weeks. Dennis Smith Jr. is still a solid selection, despite is rising salary and now we can look to Jalen McDaniels and James Bouknight to see north of 30 minutes for the now extremely shorthanded Hornets. PJ Washington, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Mason Plumlee are all in the mix as value plays depending on your particularly DFS site of choice along with salary cap and positional needs.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Today
Tonight should be a wild one with nine games tipping off in the first 90 minutes of the slate, followed by a trio of late games starting at 10:00 p.m. ET and wrapping up with the Jazz in Los Angeles taking on the Lakers at 10:30 p.m. ET. Be sure to keep tabs on the breaking news and one easy way to do that is to follow the Stokastic NBA Twitter handle. Plus if you are a premium member, be sure to check out the Stokastic Discord for all up to the minute analysis.
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