Thursday night presents a huge 12-game slate, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections for the slate to see how to handle the high and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Nov. 4, including Tyrese Maxey of the Philadelphia 76ers.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
With Kyrie Irving (suspension) and Ben Simmons (knee) ruled out tonight, Stokastic is projecting Kevin Durant to be the most owned stud on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with an ownership projection around 30% for both sites. In this situation, going overweight on him makes the most sense. In the 716 minutes Durant has played without Irving, Simmons and James Harden (now with Philadelphia) over the last two seasons, his usage and assist rates have increased 4.8 and 8.0 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. Competing in a total of 223.5 points against the Wizards, Durant’s ceiling is over 60 fantasy points tonight and he owns a top-three optimal lineup percentage score for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Forecasted for single-digit ownership tonight in Stokastic’s projections, Ja Morant is a stud that needs be included in your player pool tonight. He ranks third in the league in usage rate (35%) and is producing 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. At home and facing a Hornets’ team that ranks fourth in pace, the Grizzlies present the highest implied team total on the slate (119.5 points). Morant is 54.2 DraftKings points per game in his last 10 with a team total of at least 115, including three efforts over 60 DraftKings points.
Also, Jaylen Brown continues to be an overlooked high-end option that remains far too cheap for his potential ceiling. Handling a career-high usage rate of 31.5%, Brown is contributing 1.2 DraftKings points per minute and has topped 40 DraftKings points in 5/7 starts this season. The Celtics are at home tonight and carry the fifth largest total on the board against the Bulls (115 points). Brown has exceeded 40 DraftKings points in seven of his past 10 home starts when the Celtics presented an implied team total of 115 points or higher and is rating highly as a leverage target for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
Value Tier
With Harden (foot) missing his first game of the season Friday, Tyrese Maxey is a name that should be on everyone’s radar. He has made big strides this season, already scoring at least 25 points in 5/8 games and with Harden missing, Maxey is going to see an incredible role and be a fantasy stud. In the 93 minutes he has played with Harden off the court, Maxey’s usage has skyrocketed 9.7 percentage points to a team-high 35.3%. If this were his usage for the season, Maxey would rank third in the league, only trailing Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Also, Maxey’s assist rate has more than doubled to a team-high 34%. With these massive rates, Maxey scores 1.5 DraftKings points per minute, which is a huge leap from his 1.0 DraftKings point per minute for the season.
Maxey also gets the luxury of playing way up in pace against Knicks’ club that ranks fifth in pace, compared to the 76ers, who rank dead last. While slated to be a top-three most rostered player on DraftKings, Maxey is a prime example of good chalk at his $6,500 price tag that in no way reflects life without Harden. On FanDuel, Maxey is priced more appropriately at $8,200, which is expected to translate into single-digit ownership according to Stokastic’s projections. He absolutely still has the potential to beat this season-high salary and is one of the best ways to gain leverage on FanDuel tonight.
With Gordon Hayward (shoulder) inactive tonight, Jalen McDaniels is expected to get the spot start against the Grizzlies and is anticipated to be easily the most owned player on the slate, according to Stokastic’s projections. Notably, McDaniels is expected to be over 50% owned on DraftKings. Joining the first unit is going to hurt McDaniel’s usage and his production has actually decreased to 0.9 DraftKings points per minute with Hayward off the court this season. The Hornets’ implied team total is the fifth lowest on the slate (108 points) and McDaniel’s potential ceiling just isn’t high enough to peruse with the type of ownership he is expected to garner. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool McDaniels is rating as a bottom-three play on the slate in terms of leverage score for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
A low-owned value play that needs to be considered tonight is Brook Lopez. After only logging 22.9 minutes per game last season, he has been relied on heavily this season, seeing 30.9 minutes per game. Unsurprisingly, this has translated into strong numbers for Lopez, with him scoring over 30 DraftKings points in 4/7 starts. Matching up against the twin towers of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert in Minnesota tonight, Lopez is guaranteed to see 30-plus minutes in this matchup that requires his size. The veteran is supplying 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season and 35.1 DraftKings points per game when he has cracked the 30-miniute mark over the last two seasons. Stokastic is projecting Lopez to come with single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Situations to Monitor
Anthony Davis (back) is questionable tonight and will be a sharp GPP play tonight if active, which seems likely. He played through the same tag this past Wednesday night and delivered 57 DraftKings points against the Pelicans. Given the questionable tag and the Lakers were competing the last game of the night, Davis was only rostered by 7.4% of the field in the Fadeaway on DraftKings on Wednesday. In the same exact situation tonight against the Jazz with this game the last of the night to start, he is guaranteed to see single-digit ownership if active and this is an outstanding spot for him, with Utah giving up the second-most points in the paint.
Fred VanVleet (back) is also an important name to monitor. He has missed the past two games and his absence would boost all the key Raptors’ fantasy stocks, specifically Scottie Barnes, O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. The latter would especially be an incredible target. In these last two sans VanVleet, Siakam has exploded for 59 DraftKings points per game. Overall, Siakam is averaging 1.6 DraftKings points per minute with VanVleet off the floor this year, and he has a team-high 34.2% usage rate. That is a 3.0-percentage-point boost from his season average.
