On a DFS slate that features 11 games, it’s important to nail high-priced options while finding leverage value with high-upside at a lower price. There are plenty of busts out there, which makes our Boom/Bust tool extremely useful.
There are 11 players on DraftKings with a salary above $10,000, including Shai-Gilgeous Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight, as there are a ton of injuries to monitor. This article features three ‘boom’ candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.
Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today
NBA DFS Boom: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $10,100 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel
33.0% DraftKings Boom/26.9% FanDuel Boom
This slate is flooded with pay-up options, so picking the best way to spend your salary is going to be very important. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looks like one of the best options given that his backcourt mate Josh Giddey is questionable tonight due to an illness. In four games without Giddey this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.5 points and 7.3 assists per game. During that time he is also scoring 55.9 DraftKings points with a 34.3% usage rate. An unleashed Gilgeous-Alexander is a priority on this 11-game slate.
Gilgeous-Alexander has the second-highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. This matchup against the Trail Blazers features the second-highest total on the slate at 235 points. It is a rematch from Monday night when the Thunder won 123-121 due to another game-winning basket as time expired from Gilgeous-Alexander. Over his last four games, Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 51.6 DraftKings points while making double-digit field goals in each game and shooting 50% from the field and 34-of-36 from the charity stripe.
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NBA DFS Boom: Nikola Vucevic: $7,100 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel
32.2% DraftKings Boom/11.7% FanDuel Boom
Similar to Deandre Ayton last night, Nikola Vucevic looks fantastic in the mid-range for centers. Vucevic is coming off of a 29-point, 12-rebound double-double where he had 50.5 DraftKings points. Vucevic is averaging a double-double for the third-straight year for the Bulls and the 10th out of his last 12 seasons. Prioritize Vucevic on DraftKings where he has the fifth-highest boom percentage on the slate. He also has the fifth-highest projected ownership on DraftKings in this juicy matchup against the Hawks.
One of the main reasons Vucevic looks so good in this spot is Clint Capela is out. Many will flock to Capela’s backup Onyeka Okongwu, but don’t forget Vucevic will get a huge boost in this spot. The Rockets are already allowing 53 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks as the fifth-highest in the league. Taking Capela out of the equation only amplifies the spot for Vucevic in the paint. Expect the Bulls center to dominate a frontcourt that looks very depleted and add to his double-double totals.
NBA DFS Boom: Thomas Bryant: $5,300 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel
48.2% DraftKings Boom/26.4% FanDuel Boom
The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to get their first division win of the season against the Kings tonight. They will have to do so without their star big man Anthony Davis who is out for around a month. No Davis means Thomas Bryant will move into the starting lineup, which makes him arguably the best value on the slate. In our Stokastic projections, Bryant has the highest value on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel. The same can be said for Bryant in our Boom/Bust Tool where has the the highest on DraftKings and third-highest on FanDuel.
In his four starts this season, Bryant is averaging 14.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 28.3 DraftKings points per game while shooting 55.9% from the field. The Kings have been dominated by opposing big men this season and their center Domantas Sabonis is questionable to play with an injury. They already rank 27th in points allowed in the paint allowing 53.6 per game. Similar to the Hawks with Capela, if Sabonis is out for the Kings, Bryant should have a field day. He is an elite value play on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
NBA DFS Bust: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,400 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel
61.0% DraftKings Bust/51.2% FanDuel Bust
The Bucks are a league-best 22-8 this season, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging a career-high in points with 31 per game. He is also averaging double-digit rebounds for the sixth consecutive year. It is tough not to get exposure to that type of upside, but the salary on Giannis (especially on DraftKings) is way too high. At $12,400, Giannis has a 61% bust percentage on DraftKings while also being above 50% on FanDuel. There is no reason to pay this salary with so many other pay-up options.
The Bucks are two-point road underdogs against the Cavaliers who have the third-best record in the league this season. This is going to be a defensive battle as both the Bucks and Cavaliers have the top two defensive ratings in the league. The Cavaliers allow the second-fewest points per game in the paint as well as the fewest total points by far. Khris Middleton is out for the Bucks, which should help the upside for Giannis, but this is a brutal matchup. This game total is tied for the lowest on the slate at 216.5 points. Use your money elsewhere.
