NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Jonathan Kuminga a Rare Healthy Warrior

Wednesday presents an 11-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Wednesday, Dec. 21.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 21

High-End Tier

With Anthony Davis (foot) out for tonight’s slate-high total against the Kings (239.5 points), LeBron James is the best high-end value on the slate. With Davis off the floor this season, James’ usage has increased two percentage points to 33.4%, lifting him to 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. Plus, in the three starts James has made without Davis this season, he is averaging 58 DraftKings points per game. Particularly on DraftKings, where James’ salary has dropped to $9,900, he needs to be a core play tonight, regardless of the heavy ownership coming his direction in Stokastic’s projections. Also, note that Russell Westbrook (foot) is questionable for tonight, and if he joins Davis on the sidelines, James will go from a great spend to a must-play. with Westbrook and Davis off the court this season, James’ usage rises even further to 36% and he scores 1.6 DraftKings points per minute.

As for lower-owned high-end players to roster tonight, LaMelo Ball is standing out with Terry Rozier (hip) doubtful, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is slating him for single-digit ownership. In his first start of the season without Rozier on Monday, Ball delivered 50.25 DraftKings points against the Kings in only 27.3 minutes of work. His playing time was limited to early foul trouble, which is highly unlikely to happen again tonight. Ball should get back to his usual 30-35-minute workload and has a ceiling near 60 fantasy points, regardless of this difficult matchup against the Clippers, who rank fifth in defensive efficiency. Mostly attributed to his usage jumping 4.4 percentage points to 32.2%, Ball is generating 1.5 DraftKings points per minute with Rozier off the floor this season.

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With Stokastic projecting him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Joel Embiid is also a terrific stud to attack in GPPs. The 76ers are 11.5-point favorites tonight against the Pistons, but if this game were ever to stay competitive enough that he sees his normal workload, Embiid has the potential to be this slate’s leader in fantasy points scored. Ranking third in the NBA in usage this season (38%), he is contributing 1.6 DraftKings points per minute. The 76ers will be at home tonight – where Embiid has notably been 11.4 DraftKings points per game better than when on the road this season – and this Detroit defense they are facing ranks second-to-last in efficiency. Philadelphia’s implied team total is the sixth highest on the slate in this juicy spot (117.25 points) and Embiid has topped 60 DraftKings points in three of the five home starts he has played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season.

Value Tier

Jonathan Kuminga is expected to be chalky on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, but he is good chalk given the large role he should garner with the Warriors understaffed. Tonight, they will be without Stephen Curry (shoulder), Andrew Wiggins (groin), Klay Thompson (rest), Donte DiVincenzo (illness) and JaMychal Green (health protocols). Regardless of if he starts or not, Kuminga should approach 30 minutes with his team so depleted, which is more than enough time for him to beat his current salaries. With Curry, Wiggins and Thompson off the floor since the start of last season, Kuminga is averaging 1 DraftKings point per minute with a 23.5% usage rate. Also, in the two contests the Warriors have played without those three starters this season, Kuminga has supplied 31.3 DraftKings points in 38.4 minutes per game.

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Hovering around 10% expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections, Tim Hardaway Jr. is an excellent value play tonight. He will return from a one-game absence due to an illness and is competing in the fifth highest total on the slate against the Timberwolves (230 points), who rank fourth in pace, compared to the Mavericks, who rank dead last. This is the second largest total Dallas has been a part of this season and before sitting out Monday, Hardaway was averaging 28.6 DraftKings points per game in his previous 11 starts, including five performances over 30 DraftKings points.

An interesting full punt that Stokastic is expecting to come with essentially zero ownership is Damian Jones. With Davis unavailable, Jones has been starting center Thomas Bryant’s direct backup and in the last three contests Davis has missed over the last few weeks, Jones has provided 20 DraftKings points in 21 minutes per game. He is averaging 0.9 DraftKings points per minute this season and will be facing his former team in the Kings tonight, who are a great spot for opposing big men, with their defense yielding the fourth most points in the paint this season. Jones has the potential for over 20 fantasy points tonight and is a sneaky, cheap way to gain another share of this slate-high total between the Lakers and Kings (239 points).

Situations to Monitor

For the fourth consecutive game, Rudy Gobert (ankle) carries a questionable tag tonight, while Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) remains out. Gobert has missed each of these last three contests despite being initially listed as questionable, and if he remains sidelined, Naz Reid will be a free square in this matchup against the Mavericks that presents the fifth highest total on the slate (230 points). For the two full starts he has made without Gobert and Towns this season, Reid is scoring 51 DraftKings points in 38.1 minutes per game. Furthermore, with Gobert and Towns off the floor, Reid supplies 1.3 DraftKings points per minute and ranks second on the team in usage at 25.2, only trailing Anthony Edwards. Speaking of Edwards, he will be an outstanding expensive target if Gobert continues to sit. Edwards has generated a whopping 66.5 DraftKings points per game in these last two sans Gobert and Towns and scores 1.5 DraftKings points per minute with the two centers off the floor this season, with a 28% usage rate. Additionally, Kyle Anderson (back) is questionable for the Timberwolves, and with him inactive Monday, Jaden McDaniels logged 37.1 minutes. While he only finished with 22.3 DraftKings points, the huge amount of playing time was very encouraging for McDaniels, and he will have to be considered if Anderson misses his second straight. McDaniels produces 0.8 DraftKings points per minute with Towns, Gobert and Anderson off the floor this season and was averaging 27.1 DraftKings points per game with a 30+ minute role this season before Monday night, including six efforts over 30 DraftKings points.

Lastly, as noted above, Westbrook is questionable tonight against the Kings, and if he ends up being inactive, Dennis Schroder will be a compelling value play in this projected shootout. With Davis and Westbrook off the floor this season, Schroder has handled a 23% usage rate and scored 1 DraftKings point per minute.

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