NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

Something about being snowed in just leads to sleeping late, which leads to getting into the NBA DFS day a little later and feeling behind from the get-go. My favorite way to catch up is putting this column together because it requires me to peruse the boom/bust tool, which tells the story of the slate in no uncertain terms. Reading through narratives is great, catching up on all the local beat writers and coach speak can be important, but in the end we’re solving a math problem; getting down to the numbers is what truly matters. With a 10-game Monday slate, we’ll stay focused on the key plays without getting too cute about being sneaky, while still looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimal lineups in DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA contest simulations. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets

DraftKings – $10,900 – C / FanDuel – $10,900 – C

I’m oddly happy to be able to talk about one of my favorite players to watch in the league. Something about how the big man plays the game just appeals to me, but he’s rarely in a position to be discussed in terms of what this space is about. Jokic is always a dynamite point producer; there’s no arguing with his monster 1.59 fantasy points per minute this season. The daily issue is how to fit him into lineups at his high salary. Typically, if we pay up for Jokic, we are tragically limiting several other positions. For tonight’s big slate, that story is a bit different.

With enough value on the board on both sites, the Denver big man looks to be in play. He’s not exploding off the page in terms of the metrics on our boom/bust, but no centers — and few players overall — are today. On a relatively flat day with plenty of available value, I think it makes sense to put Jokic in play and consider getting to him in a fair share of lineups. The big man averages 35.8 minutes a game, scoring 26.8 real-life points on 29.6% usage, to which he adds a 37% rebound percentage and a 41.3% assist percentage — an absurd mark for a center.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Jokic ranks fifth overall with a 16.8% optimal-lineup rate, tops among centers on the singular-center site. His $10,900 salary would normally be somewhat prohibitive, but there are enough options to fill out value at other positions that Jokic fits in with some of the slate’s other top plays. His 27% boom probability on a salary that high tells us what we need to know about the potential for production, and Jokic will not be overly popular at just a -0.10 leverage score. That means we can easily push above his public exposure with safety.

In Awesemo’s DraftKings NBA simulations, Jokic appears in the optimal lineup with less frequency. He is hurt slightly by the site’s positional flexibility as well as some values created by pricing differentials between the two. At just a 12.0% optimal-lineup rate, he ranks 10th overall on the slate but just fourth among center-eligible players. This tells us that the optimal construction path on DraftKings is more likely to find value at the center spot and spend up at other positions. However, 12% is not zero, and we can certainly get there with Jokic as well. The big man offers a 19.0% boom score probability and a -0.4 leverage score. With the ability to flex rosters, we can get above the field on the Jokic play and differentiate some lineups without too much penalty to our overall slate of entries.

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Luka Doncic – Dallas Mavericks

DraftKings – $10,800 – PG / FanDuel – $10,700 – PG

It appears to be spend-up day in this space. Another top option on the NBA DFS board and another amazing player to watch on the hardwood, Doncic is one of the most expensive pieces on any slate for which the Mavericks have a game. Doncic earns every penny of our fantasy dollars, however, posting a huge 1.55 fantasy points per minute, one of the top marks in the league. The point guard sees 34.6 minutes per game and is the focal point of the Dallas offense, contributing a little bit of everything.

On tonight’s slate Doncic checks in with just an 8.2% optimal-lineup rate in DraftKings NBA contests. This is not a great mark for the salary that Doncic requires. He ranks 34th overall and 17th among eligible guards despite being the highest-priced player on the slate. The boom score probability of 16.7% is the one saving grace in making Doncic look appealing, but the correct way to see that alongside such a low optimal-lineup rate is to intuit that he will potentially produce a big game on his own but will still prevent you from unlocking the correct combination of other big games via his high salary. That will leave you with a lineup with his big score and middling value scores, well out of the money.

In FanDuel NBA contests, the story is different. Doncic ranks second on the site by optimal-lineup rate at 21.2%, which is largely attributable to the requirement to roster two point guards. The high salary is still in play, and Doncic has a 21.9% boom score probability that ranks just 12th on the slate, but he seems a much more mandatory play. If he hits the ceiling score on the blue site, you’re likely going to need him in lineups. Doncic will be popular, but not quite enough. His leverage score of 2.5 is a green light to buy additional shares.

Luguentz Dort – Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings – $4,200 – SG/SF / FanDuel – $4,400 – SF

Taking a step down into the value range to help pay for all these stars, we find Dort as a semi-interesting mix-and-match value play. He looks more appealing on DraftKings, where we can move him between two positions while picking up an additional $200 in salary savings from FanDuel, though he is in play on that site as well.

Dort averages 29.1 minutes per game, and Awesemo has him projected for a 32-minute night with some absences in the Thunder rotation. He has had a productive start to his season, at least in terms of our NBA DFS picks, putting up 0.72 fantasy points per minute as a value play. For the overall salary, we should do fine with that rate, assuming Dort makes his minutes.

On FanDuel the small forward slots in next to some similar options. He looks like a good play to mix and match in the low end of your lineup’s salary requirements and is an excellent movable piece with his 13.3% optimal-lineup rate and 26.5% boom score probability. The field will be on him, and he is carrying a -5.7 leverage score, however, which is the one thing that might make me consider some of the other similar values like Will Barton. This one comes down to what ownership looks like 10 minutes before lock.

In DraftKings NBA contests, the play looks far stronger. Dort comes in with a 25.7% optimal-lineup rate to lead the entire slate on that site. He is getting popular, up to a 36.1% ownership share in the most recent update, which pushes him will into negative leverage territory. But Dort seems like a value play that will be more building block than optional piece tonight. With a 25% boom score probability, we can see the clear upside, and I think there is still room to push above his projected public popularity.

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D’Angelo Russell – Minnesota Timberwolves

DraftKings – $7,000 – SG / FanDuel – $7,100 – SG

Russell is a player who tends to elicit eyerolls when discussing him for NBA DFS picks. I would wager that there isn’t one of us he is yet to burn with an underproductive night. Still, I can’t quit him, and he looks like a quality option again tonight with some of the Timberwolves feature players still missing in action.

Russell has produced 1.10 fantasy points per minute this year, down from his 1.18 rate last season. His salary on both sites reflects the current-year production and could be considered slightly low given the known upside. Russell sees 30.4 minutes per game and averages 20 real-life points on 29.7% usage. The opportunity is there on a nightly basis for Russell to put up a giant score. He just needs to deliver, something that a low .539 true shooting percentage has hampered.

On DraftKings Russell comes up in 17.3% of optimal lineups in simulations, good for second overall on the entire slate. He carries an 18.4% boom score probability for the reduced salary, a mark that ranks ninth overall and fourth among guard-eligible players. He will be somewhat popular, but not to a degree that restricts us from getting well over the field on a play that has a good chance of landing us further down the path toward building the optimal lineup.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Russell is the sixth-ranked option with a 16.6% optimal-lineup rate, though two of the higher-ranked players are at the same position. He pulls in a 23.6% boom score probability, which also ranks behind the other two shooting guard options, though not far enough to push him off the board by any means. Russell is firmly in the mix as an option to get slightly different at an important spot while retaining other metrics, though he also carries a slightly negative leverage score at -0.60. I think it makes sense to get beyond that and distribute the majority of our shooting guard shares between the three top-ranked players, including Russell.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.