The 3M Open once again acts as the follow-up event to the year’s final major and the second-to-last tournament of the 2022-23 regular season. Eleven of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will be in the field, headlined by the defending champion Tony Finau, who blitzed this course to the tune of 17 under par last season. Finau has won three more times since then, and two of those wins have come on similarly easy courses. Joining him at the top of the field will be Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young and Justin Thomas to headline potential 3M Open DFS picks.
This is the fifth year that TPC Twin Cities will be hosting this tournament, and the Arnold Palmer/Steve Wenzloff design/redesign has some course history. It has seen an interesting group of winners, and the main theme among them has been power. Champ, Finau and Wolff are some of the longest hitters in the game, and the wide-open venue has given them a chance to exploit the layout using their best club. Given it is the week after a major, this will mostly be a wide-open event, and while a favorite in Finau won this last season, multiple 100-1 winners have hit at TPC Twin Cities over the last four seasons as well.
There are still several massive prize pools in PGA DFS available throughout the industry and has never been a better time to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, to get an edge. But before you do, make sure you keep reading as the full preview for the 2023 3M Open DFS picks.
2023 3M Open DFS Preview & Picks
The top 5 finishers at the British Open the week prior were as follows:
- 1st – Brian Harman
- 2nd – Jon Rahm / Sepp Straka / Jason Day / Tom Kim
All of the top names in the field will be flying in from England, so there will be an adjustment period for some, although Finau and Im last year had to deal with the same travel schedule and finished first and second, respectively. It is worth noting that, in the first season this event was played after the Open Championship in 2021, Cameron Champ won, and he did not take part in the Open the week prior.
In terms of betting targets and under-the-radar players for DFS lineups, it is not a bad time to take some shots down the board. Michael Thompson and Champ both went off at massive betting numbers when they won in Minnesota, and even Wolff was in the 125-1 arena when he grabbed a surprise win in 2019.
The larger fairways and easier greens mean aggressive play can pay off (despite the amount of water on the course), and players who can navigate around the penalty areas may have low rounds. Last year Finau erased a massive deficit in Round 4, and it would not be shocking to see some big swings in the leaderboard on Saturday and Sunday this year again.
3M Open Betting Trends
- Three of the four winners of this tournament have gone off at 100-1 or longer in the outright betting odds.
- Two of the last three winners did not play the week prior to winning in Minnesota.
- Each of the past three winners had placed 12th or better in one of their four prior starts on the PGA.
Below are some of the top players in the field to watch given their recent form and course history:
- Sepp Straka: Straka carried in his good play from the John Deere into the Open, where he finished in a tie for second. He is striking his irons as well as anyone on the PGA.
- Lucas Glover: Glover is another player who is showing some insane form with his irons. He has finished top 10 in three straight events and has also benefited from a change in putting style/stroke.
- Nicolai Hojgaard: Hojgaard has looked extremely good in his last few starts, grabbing a 23rd at the Open after a sixth in Scotland. He is a potential dark horse candidate to compete for the win.
- Cameron Young: Young again came close to grabbing his first PGA win but came up just short. It is a quick turnaround for him, but no one may be more motivated than him to get back at it.
- J.T. Poston: Poston has quietly been playing very well of late. He ranks third in strokes gained total over the last six weeks and has placed 11th and 28th at the 3M Open the past two seasons.
Field Notes: It sounds strange to say, but it will be interesting to see how Justin Thomas performs. He has been overtly terrible since May and may be on the verge of losing a Ryder Cup position. Sahith Theegala is another player to keep an eye on. He has missed a few cuts in a row as well but placed 27th at the U.S. Open just a month ago. Last week’s unlucky playoff loser at the Barracuda, Patrick Rodgers, is also here. He has made the cut at Twin Cities in both previous attempts.
3M Open Past Winners
2022: Tony Finau
- Lead-in: 28/13/MC (played Open week prior – 28th)
- SG: TTG – 16.6 | SG: APP – 7.9 | SG: OTT: 4.9 | SG: ATG: 3.9 | SG: PUTT: 0.8
2021: Cameron Champ
- Lead-in: 11/MC/MC (did not play Open week prior – 11th in final start a Deere)
- SG: TTG – 4.1 | SG: APP – 0.8 | SG: OTT: 3.7 | SG: ATG: -0.8 | SG: PUTT: 8.5
2020: Michael Thompson
- Lead-in: MC/64/46 (off the week prior – Covid Schedule, not played prior to Open)
- SG: TTG – 5.9 | SG: APP 7.3 | SG: OTT: 0.5 | SG: ATG: -1.0 | SG: PUTT: 7.1
Two of the last three winners of this tournament have gained over seven strokes putting for the week, which obviously goes to show where a lot of the money will be made. Ultimately, TPC Twin Cities is pretty simple off the tee and around the greens, so players will really be making most of their hay here on approach and the greens. Longer hitters can gain some ground off the tee, but both Champ and Wolff also gained over three strokes on approach (Wolff gained 9.5 strokes). A big hitter who is trending well on the greens and with his iron play is the preferred kind of prototype. However, as Thompson proved in 2020, even if a golfer is just neutral or average off the tee and around the green, he can make up strokes in other areas.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
3M Open Course Preview
TPC Twin Cities: Par 71, 7,431 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Designer: Arnold Palmers (2000), Steve Wenzloff (2018)
Similar Courses: TPC Scottsdale, TPC Craig Ranch, Detroit GC
TPC Twin Cities has turned into one of the more fun venues on the circuit. When the wind is down and the greens are soft, it can turn into a bit of a birdie fest, as was the case in 2019 when Thompson won going away at 19 under par. However, the longer par 71 has plenty of water — so much so, in fact, that there are only three holes on the course where water does not come into play. There are also plenty of traps to navigate, and when the wind is up and the greens are firm, this course can bite a little. Scott Piercy looked like he was going to win by a million strokes last season and then completely fell apart in the final round thanks to the course toughening up a bit.
That is not to say that Twin Cities cannot be beaten either. Finau played in the same conditions as Piercy last year and blitzed the course to grab his first of two wins that summer. Finau was on another level of ball striking, though, as his off-tee game overpowered Twin Cities and set himself up for far easier approaches into the water-protected greens. Wolff used a very similar strategy in 2019 when he won.
The course itself has plenty of longer holes, including three par 5’s that all play around 580 to 600 yards. While the holes here have length, they do not carry a lot of bite off the tee, as players can happily use the driver and have large landing spots. Driving accuracy tends to be super high, but the greens can be hard to hold if they firm up, which again favors players with a high ball flight.
Winners here have tended to gain most of their strokes on approach and on the bentgrass greens, with around-the-green play being almost a complete non-factor. That means keeping a keen eye not just on ball striking but also on those players who may be heating up a little with the flat stick, or who can at least spike in that area.
Key Stats: SG: Approach / SG: Off the Tee / Par 5 efficiency 550-600 yards
2023 3M Open Recent Form Watch
Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 24 Rounds)
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Mark Hubbard
- Lucas Glover
- Gary Woodland
- Aaron Rai
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (Last 50 rounds)
- Brent Grant
- Keith Mitchell
- Cameron Young
- Luke List
- Gary Woodland
Top Strokes Putting (Bentgrass) (Last 50 Rounds)
- Justin Lower
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Beau Hossler
- Patrick Rodgers
- Alex Noren
2023 3M Open Weather Update
Thursday morning: 80-90 F, winds 2 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation.
Thursday afternoon: 95-100 F, winds 6-8 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation.
Friday morning: 70-80 F, winds 8-10 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation.
Friday afternoon: 85-90 F, winds 10-15 mph/ 0% chance of precipitation.
The weather is going to be a complete shift from last week. Minnesota has some hot, Midwest temperatures, and the highs on Thursday are set to hit 100 F. That in and of itself could create some issues for players, and Friday also sees the wind pick up a bit in the afternoon. It is not going to be Open-level wind, but gusts up to 20 mph could be on tap, which may create several issues on a course with a ton of water. Deciding which afternoon wave to fade (Thursday heat or Friday wind) could be crucial to lineup building.
2023 3M Open DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets
Cameron Davis | BetMGM Outright
Davis comes in having missed the cut in five of his last 11 starts, but he also landed three top-10 finishes in that span as well. He missed the cut in Scotland (and did not play last week) but was 17th at the Rocket Mortgage the week prior to that and gained over six strokes ball striking in the process. Despite TPC Twin Cities having plenty of water, it also has massive landing spots off the tee, which has is great for a player who can absolutely launch it like Davis. He has played this event in each of the past four seasons (since inception) and has gained over two strokes off the tee in two of the past three years.
While there is always a risk of ruin with Davis, who has missed more cuts than usual this year, he has also shown that his A-game is good enough to beat these kinds of fields before. His win in Detroit in 2019 came on the same course where Finau won last year — and there is no doubt that Davis’ career-best fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship in May will help him down the stretch in these weaker-field tournaments. Ranked sixth in overall par-5 efficiency in this field, Davis being off the last couple of weekends should get him a decent number when the odds are released Monday morning. He makes for a solid selection to start betting cards and is approaching “overdue” territory to grab his second PGA win.
Davis Thompson | BetMGM Outright + Top 5/10/20
Thompson shares a lot of the same player characteristics and upside with Davis but should at an even better price. It may seem like ages ago, but Thompson nearly won early in the year at the American Express, when he had a putt rattle out late in his round on Sunday and had to settle for second, one stroke behind Rahm. Thompson may not have gotten the job done there, but he proved he belonged and will likely be able to draw on that experience this week.
In terms of form, Thompson may be in a perfect spot. His approach game has been picking up a bit of steam of late, gaining him over 1.5 strokes in two of his last five starts, and he has also been helped along by a hot putter that has gained strokes in four straight events. Like Davis, Thompson is a monster off the tee, and the large fairways and easy-to-chip-around greens at TPC Twin Cities should fit him very well. Given that he is well rested and coming off 31st- and 24th-place finishes, Thompson looks like a solid ladder betting target and a player who could potentially get solid outright odds as well.
