Best Saturday NFL DFS Week 16 Picks on DraftKings & FanDuel

Saturday NFL returns for a second consecutive week, along with a robust Sunday and then Monday aka Christmas Day docket. Continuing our NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing Saturday DFS picks and analysis for the double-header, with extra attention paid to running back Austin Ekeler.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the DFS action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and Saturday DFS analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Saturday slate featuring the Bengals at the Steelers and the Bills at the Chargers. so get ready for the Saturday NFL triple-header, DFS-style!

NFL DFS Picks at DraftKings & FanDuel: Saturday

NFL DFS Picks for Saturday: Quarterbacks

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Josh Allen with three fewer points than Easton Stick and Mason Rudolph combined under both the FanDuel and DraftKings scoring systems.

Josh Allen has rushing touchdowns in 10 of his last 12 games, with 11 total in this span. The main question is how close will Los Angeles keep this game. Currently OddsShopper shows that Allen is fifth in the MVP race, finally moving ahead of Tyreek Hill, but still trailing one other position player. It is not like the team is going to be having him pad his stats, particularly after we saw the Bills eschew the pass (15 attempts) and embrace the run (49 carries) as the team curb stomped the visiting Dallas Cowboys.

Jake Browning has started just four games in his career, though he has already faced the Steelers, nearly taking the Bengals to the promised land in Pittsburgh in his first start for the injured Joe Burrow. The former 2016 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year has won each of his last three outings and coach Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have lost three in a row. These teams are heading in opposite directions and while Cinci is 2.5-point road favorites, this is shaping up to be another AFC North rock fight with Ja’Marr Chase out with an injury.

Easton Stick was not the reason the Chargers allowed the Las Vegas Raiders to roll up a franchise record 63 points, but he didn’t really move the ball until garbage time – which was basically the second half as the Raiders had 49 points at the break. Do not expect another 79-yard touchdown strike, but the relatively new signal-caller could put up a couple scores.

Mason Rudolph has 10 career starts, but just one game with more than 251 aerial yards and four below 200. He is not much of a rusher, but could end up with a couple dozen yards on the ground on scrambles during broken plays. All but one of his starts has resulted in double-digit fantasy points. Though his high is 22.7, he only has 15 or more in half of his appearances.

1. Josh Allen: Will be on two-thirds of the small-field rosters.
2. Jake Browning: Go Huskies!
3. Easton Stick: Dysfunctional team, but a better offense than Pittsburgh, if they let Ekeler play a typical role.
4. Mason Rudolph: Heck, after Will Levis won a short slate, we can’t count anyone out.

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NFL DFS Picks for Saturday: Running Back

James Cook has at least 100 combined yards in each of the last five games, including a pair of 100-plus rushing performances, while also scoring a trio of tuddies in the passing game. He missed Wednesday’s practice with an illness, but is not expected to miss Saturday’s game. The only risk is that the team crushes early and he gives way to one of his counterparts.

Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris faced the sixth-worst rushing DVOA last week, with the former getting 10 carries for 40 yards and the latter getting a dozen totes, but just 33 yards and also losing a fumble. Harris was dinged up and missed some time in-game, but he is not carrying an injury designation heading into Saturday. Warren also added five catches for 28 yards on six targets, but a touchdown will be the real separator between this duo.

Joe Mixon has four rushing scores in the last three games and seven in over his last eight appearances along with a receiving touchdown. Still, he is getting competition from Chase Brown as the team looks to see what it has in reserve for next year. Brown was on the injury report with a chest/sternum issue, so keep tabs on his status. If active, he should see 10 or so opportunities and be a potential differentiation play.

Austin Ekeler has not had a good season and the high-ankle sprain that cost him a month at the beginning of the year was not helpful. He is a pending free agent, so you can craft a variety of storylines for how his season ends. Perhaps the team gives him the rock and lets a franchise favorite audition for a new contract from another team, or maybe the organization wants to ease off the workload and lower his signing value next year in an effort to keep him. Best guess is that he is around for the high-value touches and in the passing game as a safety valve for his inexperienced field general.

1. James Cook: Easy peasy.
2. Jaylen Warren: Gets the nod on DraftKings in full-PPR.
3. Joe Mixon: Move ahead of Warren on FanDuel.
4. Chase Brown: Differentiation play, with upside.
5. Austin Ekeler: How the mighty have fallen.
6. Najee Harris: Though incredibly unlikely, he could fall into the end zone twice and break the hearts of his haters.
7. Isaiah Spiller: Saw a whopping 16 carries last week, had 18 total heading into the game.
8. Latavius Murray: Minor stand alone value, but if his backfield-mates are not healthy, he has a slim path to relevance.
9. Ty Johnson: Returns kickoffs and could see half a dozen carries, dealing with a sore shoulder, so confirm status.
10. Joshua Kelley: Better pass-catcher than Spiller, could fill that role if Ekeler is banished to the bench.

NFL DFS Picks for Saturday: Wide Receiver

This is where we can make or break things from a differentiation standpoint. While only two receivers had more than 100 yards, 14 different pass-catchers had at least 47 receiving yards, including tight ends and running backs. The NFL game is about passing, even with subpar quarterbacks at the helm of two of the four offenses in action this afternoon.

1. Stefon Diggs: Duh.
2. Tee Higgins: Did you see that catch last week?!?! Will be the primary option with Chase out of the mix.
3. Tyler Boyd: Very affordable salary and he should see half a dozen targets, makes sense to go over the field and up to  65-70% of our rosters should have him.
4. Dionte Johnson: The degree of difficulty for a fourth-straight game with a touchdown has been ratcheted up with Rudolph under center, but Johnson is a far safer option than any of his teammates.
5. Joshua Palmer: Can score from anywhere on the field, particularly in garbage time when defenses start getting careless.
6. Gabriel Davis: Just one target last week, though the team did not need to pass. Two targets the week before is a little concerning; however, that should keep casual gamers away and this is a good matchup for Davis.
7. Quentin Johnston: By the time the season is over, he will have been barely passable for a first-round selection, but that is a dramatic improvement as he was on a trajectory to be a bust. Injuries helped him out, but he still has a stink on him that has many fantasy gamers holding a grudge.
8. George Pickens: Head case and immaturity are not winning him many friends, particularly after he decided not to make a red zone block that may have helped Warren get in the zone.
9. Khalil Shakir: We should worry about Knox and Kincaid eating into his target opportunities. He is a similar play to Davis, but less of a track record at being efficient.
10. Trenton Irwin: Minimum salary on DraftKings ($3,000) have him in play for “cash” games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.
11. Allen Robinson III: The Ghost of Holidays Past deserves his own line, do not expect more than a couple of low aDOT looks out of the slot.
12. Jalen Guyton and Alex Erickson: Last of the wideouts that are not complete longshots.

NFL DFS Picks for Saturday: Tight End

Each team has a viable option with the top quartet all within a two fantasy point range in half-PPR scoring and three in full-PPR formats.

1. Dalton Kincaid: ZOMG he had two targets and no receptions last week, panic-time! Of course that is not as big a deal when we remember that Allen attempted just 15 passes as the Bills rolled up 266 rushing yards and three touchdowns on Dallas last week. The prior week, Kincaid had eight targets and Dawson Knox played nearly half of the snaps in his return from the injured reserve. Knox is viable, and actually ranks above Freiermuth at one-third of the popularity.
2. Pat Freiermuth: In his last four games with a variety of quarterbacks, he has 27 targets, 18 receptions, 183 yards and a two-point conversion. He at least has a little familiarity with Randolph, plus we know that inexperienced quarterbacks often lean on their tight ends.
3. Gerald Everett/Donald Parham Jr.: Live for a red zone look, if the Chargers ever get that close. Slight lean towards Everett, but both are in play and Parham will be on less than 5% of all lineups.
4. Tanner Hudson: Likely to pick up popularity in Cincinnati stacks and end up on around one-third of all lineups. He does have 17 targets, 15 catches, 123 yards and a touchdown in his four games with Browning, but Drew Sample played four years in college with Browning at the University of Washington.

NFL DFS Picks for Saturday: Defense

Five of the six defenses are within a two-point median fantasy projection. The Broncos are the cheapest unit and have been in decent form.

1. Buffalo D/ST: For those tired of hearing about the Bills, this will be the last time they are mentioned in this article. It looks like they are projecting to be on between 30%-and-40% of all rosters on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This makes sense going against a green QB who was sacked three times last week. The only thing in Stick’s favor is that this game in is Los Angeles.
2. Cincinnati D/ST: The Bengals have averaged three sacks per game over their last five tilts and they will be going against a third-stringer this afternoon. In his career on just over 400 drop backs, Rudolph has a 4.2% sack rate. That is not too shabby, but the crappy offensive line and fact that he has just three total pass attempts over the last two years, means this is going to be a long row to hoe.
3. Pittsburgh D/ST: In his four starts, Browning has been sacked 4, 0, 2 and 4 times, with just three interceptions. Over the last four games, the Steelers are averaging nearly three sacks per game, but they have just a pair of picks on the turnover front.
4. Los Angeles D/ST: The Chargers have two or fewer sacks in half their games and one or zero in five of those matchups. In the last six weeks, this defense has one interception and one fumble recovery and it has produced negative fantasy points twice. Lady Luck can smile on a defense at any time with a pick-six or scoop-and-score, but she likely has other plans this holiday weekend.

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