MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Seth Lugo Time (June 25)

In typical Tuesday fashion, we have a monster 12-game MLB slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, June 25

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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Marlins-Royals: Seth Lugo

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 10.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600

Even with 12 games and 24 pitchers in play tonight, ownership at pitcher is projected to be extremely concentrated. As of this writing, Hunter Brown and Hunter Greene are projected to be a combined 82.2% owned on DraftKings. Though Brown is getting almost double the ownership of Greene, both of them will be in a significant number of lineups. With Brown and Greene getting so much love, pretty much every other pitcher will be somewhat contrarian tonight.

Lugo is one of those pitchers, and he comes in averaging 20.1 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 2.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 104 innings. Among pitchers on tonight’s slate, only Atlanta’s Reynaldo Lopez is averaging more fantasy points per game, as Lugo has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball over the first half of the season. Although Lugo’s strikeout upside leaves a bit to be desired, he’s made up for it with 12 quality starts, which is tied for the MLB lead. Lugo’s underlying numbers show he’s benefited from a nice amount of good luck and that the regression monster is coming for him sooner rather than later. Facing the lifeless Marlins, however, that regression is unlikely to occur tonight, and he’s coming in severely underowned on DraftKings.

Lugo is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 10.1% of the time this slate plays out. With only 1.5% of lineups expected to roster him, Lugo is the top tournament arm tonight.

If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE — or watch the video below.


MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Cubs-Giants: Cubs

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 4.4%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.1%

Unlike at pitcher where two players are getting the majority of love, stack ownership is spread out. The Dodgers are the only team currently projected to be double-digit-owned as a stack, and facing Chris Flexen and the atrocious White Sox bullpen, that makes a lot of sense. The Dodgers themselves are only projected to be 10% owned, with pretty much every other team on the slate coming in between 2% and 7%. At the bottom of that group sits the Cubs as the top contrarian stack on the board.

Truth be told, the Cubs have been one of the most disappointing teams in the majors this season. As such, it’s not a huge surprise that the field has no interest in getting to them in a pitcher’s park in San Francisco. Matched up with Giants prospect Carson Whisenhunt, the Cubs are more or less getting pushed to the side for other offenses that aren’t in nearly as good of spots. Though there’s reason to be high on Whisenhunt for the long term, he’s struggled this season in the minors, putting up a 4.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. While those numbers must be taken with a grain of salt considering he’s pitching the hitter-friendly PCL, the Cubs represent a major step up in talent from the lineups he was facing in Sacramento.

As of this writing, the Cubs are projected to be the top stack 4.4% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 2.1% of lineups expected to stack them, it’s easy to get over the field on them in large-field GPPs.

Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider

Twins, A’s, Diamondbacks, Rockies

Today's MLB DFS picks, top stacks and pitchers on DraftKings and FanDuel include MLB DFS predictions for key talent like Tanner Bibee...
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Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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