MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Hunter Brown + Astros Bats (June 25)

Tuesday keeps the week moving along with a 12-game featured slate locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is reaching forward to grab the three earlier games for a 13-gamer with a 6:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Hunter Brown and MacKenzie Gore as the staff aces for Tuesday. Kansas City has another strong home matchup against a weak Miami righty, and the Astros should feast on lefty Austin Gomber.

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 25

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown (HOU vs. COL)

Astros vs. Rockies – 3.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,000 at DraftKings
$9,200 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo

The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool easily has RHP Hunter Brown at the top of the list for DFS hurlers tonight. The 25-year-old seems to have figured things out after an early season swoon, and he is at home against one of the worst offenses in the league.

Since the beginning of May, Brown has made eight appearances, with a 2.45 ERA, 3.72 FIP and 3.20 xFIP. During these 51.1 frames, he has 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Plus, in his five most recent starts, the erstwhile ace has allowed three home runs while walking just five.

When the Rockies are on the road, they have an 84 wRC+ this season, which indicates they are scoring 16% fewer runs than league average. This is also a bottom-5 mark in the league. The team drops down to a bottom-three mark with an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, with a 25.5% strikeout rate that is the fourth highest in the league.

The projected Colorado lineup has a 27.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed hurlers this season and above-average pop (.157 ISO), but that includes its Coors Field production. Catcher Jacob Stallings (17.8%) is the only hitter who has a strikeout rate below 25% against righties this season. Enjoy!

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP MacKenzie Gore (WSH at SD)

Nationals at Padres – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$9,500 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo

This has the makings of a breakout season for LHP MacKenzie Gore. Through 15 starts, he has a 6-6 record — which isn’t bad considering the offense behind him — a strong 3.49 ERA, 3.74 xERA, 2.88 FIP and 3.27 xFIP. Even better, the 25-year-old has 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings and a scant six home runs in 80 frames.

Fernando Tatis Jr. landed on the injured list yesterday, and catcher Luis Campusano was reserved on Friday. Xander Bogaerts is still out, which means three key hitters are missing for the Padres. Last night was a wild one as the Nationals scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning, only to have RHP Hunter Harvey melt down in the bottom of the frame, ceding four runs as the Friars stole the game 7-6 with only two extra-base hits on the night.

This will be the third time that Gore has faced the team that drafted him, having come over as part of the Juan Soto trade with shortstop CJ Abrams. Abrams was outstanding last night, going 3-for-5 with two runs scored and a pair of steals.

The only knock against this matchup for Gore is that the active roster for the Padres has only a 17.3% strikeout rate against southpaws, which is the third lowest in the league. It is also in the bottom 10 for power against lefties, so this will be a great test to see if Gore can generate his own luck tonight.

Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bobby Miller (LAD at CHW)

Dodgers at White Sox – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo

Prior to missing two months with shoulder inflammation, RHP Bobby Miller put together 11.2 middling innings over three appearances. Last Wednesday, he was roughed up for five runs in Coors Field, walking three and ceding three extra-base hits while striking out only two in 6.1 innings.

To his credit, he did throw 79 pitches, and with the extra day of rest, he should be in the 85-pitch range tonight if things go well. In his two minor league rehabilitation outings, he logged 85 and 93 throws. This is only the 27th start of Miller’s career, so there are still unknowns about his actual talent level.

Fortunately, the 25-year-old is going against the worst offense in the league tonight, which should help him stick the landing on his elevated FanDuel and appropriate DraftKings salary. Yahoo has him at a bargain $38, which makes him stand out as a top-5 point-per-dollar option tonight.

Today's MLB DFS picks, top stacks and pitchers on DraftKings and FanDuel include MLB DFS predictions for key talent like Tanner Bibee...
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros

Astros vs. Rockies – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Austin Gomber
DK Top Stack %: 8.8%
FD Top Stack %: 8.6%

June has not been kind to LHP Austin Gomber, who has scuffled his way to a 9.68 ERA, seven walks and 11 strikeouts in 17.2 innings. The five home runs are bad, but what makes this worse is that the 30-year-old southpaw has been on the road for three of the four games in this stretch.

The only silver lining for the southpaw has been a 4.36 ERA for the season, which is his best mark since he was with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2020. This does seem like it was an aberration, and now the Regression Monster has arrived for dinner at the all-you-can-eat buffet.

Gomber has hemorrhaged power to righties (.190 ISO, 731 plate appearances) and lefties (.287 ISO, 190 PAs) alike since the start of last season. Yes, a lot of those results were in Coors Field, but much of the production also came in road games.

Yordan Alvarez seems all but preordained to hit a home run tonight, with Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, catcher Yainer Diaz and infielder Jeremy Pena being the first wave of batters to target. Jake Meyers offers discounted power upside, and depending on where he lands in the lineup, Mauricio Dubon is also in play.

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Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals

Royals vs. Marlins – 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Yonny Chirinos
DK Top Stack %: 6.6%
FD Top Stack %: 6.5%

The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is back for more Kansas City Royals with another strong matchup in glorious hitting weather. Despite him being in the league since 2018, today will be just the 71st game that has seen RHP Yonny Chirinos take the mound.

The 30-year-old has been both a starter and a long reliever, becoming one of the main bulk options out of the Tampa bullpen when the team was popularizing the opener concept. Last July, Atlanta claimed Chirinos off waivers after the Rays released him, though it was far from a match made in heaven. Chirinos had five appearances for Atlanta, spanning 22.1 innings, with a 9.27 ERA, 5.27 FIP and 3.77 xFIP. He allowed five home runs during that stretch, though four came in one ill-fated start in Pittsburgh.

In 66 innings for Triple-A Jacksonville, Chirinos has a 3.00 ERA and a 1.258 WHIP in 66 innings. The 23 walks and 47 strikeouts are not in his favor, and that is why gamers are once again flocking to the Royals.

Look to the lefties first, with Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey as the first pairing, followed by the combination of stalwart Salvador Perez and budding superstar Bobby Witt Jr. MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe and Nelson Velazquez are discount dandies from deeper in the batting order.

Late Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Angels

Angels vs. Athletics – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Mitch Spence
DK Top Stack %: 4.9%
FD Top Stack %: 5.0%

Prior to being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, RHP Mitch Spence was in the Yankees organization. Sparing all the details of this fun MLB quirk, essentially Spence needs to stay on the A’s active roster for the entire season in order for them to retain his rights.

Most pitchers selected in the Rule 5 Draft tend to work out of the bullpen with occasional spot starts. Keep in mind that, if Spence were truly talented, he probably would have made the Yankees roster at some point instead of being unprotected in the draft each of the last two years. Spence was a 10th-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft after three seasons in the college ranks with USC Aiken. The now-26-year-old has 214.1 non-descript innings at Triple-A. He is basically a create-a-player who has NPC-level talent and may have a moment or two in the sun but will otherwise be cannon fodder most starts.

Speaking of create-a-players, that is also a good way to describe the Anaheim lineup with Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon on the injured reserve and Brandon Drury ailing. Luis Rengifo, Taylor Ward, switch-hitter Willie Calhoun and catcher Logan O’Hoppe are really the only hitters worthy of being named from this motley crew.

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Yesterday it was LHP Bailey Falter, today it is teammate RHP Mitch Keller in Cincinnati. Keller is a good pitcher, but the under 6.5 strikeouts prop, well, it is crazy. Currently this is available at -130 on Hard Rock.

OddsShopper shows this bet has -138 “true odds” for under 6.5 strikeouts, which works out to a +2.6% expected ROI.

While that may not seem overly exciting, Keller is projected for 5.7 strikeouts tonight, which is well below the seven needed for this under to fail.

We can also see several books offering plus money at under 5.5, so this bet is likely to be adjusted or pulled at some point as more money comes in at Hard Rock.

 

 

 

Keller is averaging 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which is under both last year’s 9.7 rate and his career 8.8-per-nine ratio. Over his last eight starts, he has had seven or more strikeouts four times, including in his most recent start against the Cincinnati Reds. Of course, that game was in Pittsburgh and not the cozy confines of the Great American SMALLpark. The projected lineup for the Reds has a 23.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season and change. This collection of hitters also has a .167 ISO in the same timeframe, and the favorable hitting weather could help them knock Keller off the mound early tonight.

Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.

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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Tuesday, June 25

After several days of fun in the sun, there are several precipitation risks on Tuesday’s slate. Most are in the Midwest, so keep tabs on Chicago, Cincinnati, Detroit and St. Louis. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.

Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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