Once again, Sleeper Fantasy is offering up the MLB pick’em value, with a solid discount on one of the game’s best strikeout pitchers. There are also a couple of other huge-name arms with massive values on their higher/lower strikeout numbers, so we are going to dive into all of these and figure out how to attack these pitchers. And don’t forget: If you are new to Sleeper, you can use the Sleeper Fantasy promo code ‘STOKASTIC’ when you sign up to get a deposit match up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Sleeper’s MLB pick’em contest.
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MLB Pick’em Predictions for Sleeper MLB | Aug. 23
Kevin Gausman O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
Obviously, the best place to start is the Sleeper Fantasy promo discount on Gausman’s strikeouts:
🚨 PICK ON SALE 🚨
We discounted Kevin Gausman’s Ks pick by 30%!
6.5 ➡ 4.5 Ks 🤝 pic.twitter.com/2zFBDJrO2Q
— Sleeper Picks (@SleeperPicksHQ) August 23, 2023
Gausman’s 6.5 line was already pretty achievable, and the 30% discount only makes this all the more lockable. After all, Gausman is second in all of baseball in pretty much every strikeout metric, and the matchup with Baltimore on the road is not affecting that much. Sure, the Orioles strike out below league average, but the difference is not great (22.1% vs. 22.7% MLB mark). There also is not much discrepancy between Gausman’s home and away numbers, both in terms of strikeouts and offense allowed.
For those who are still on the fence, just know that Gausman has struck out at least five in 19 of 24 starts this year, and only one of those has come since the start of July. Stokastic projects Gausman for 6.6 strikeouts tonight, easily clearing the 4.5 mark. Lock in Gausman over 4.5 strikeouts to start your Sleeper entry and move on.
Note that this is a one-time use, and the max entry amount allowed is $20 if using this Sleeper discount.
Best MLB Sleeper Play: Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1.77x)
Sale has worked himself back to being a top-of-the-rotation starter, and his 10.7 strikeouts per nine are a testament to him finding his swing-and-miss stuff again. He has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in nine of 13 starts this season, and after a length absence that spanned all of June and July, Sale has struck out 10 and allowed four earned runs across his last two starts.
That said, there has to be some concern about Sale’s workload, especially with the Red Sox still pushing for Wild Card position. Sale has not eclipsed 75 pitches in any of his last four starts, and though he managed to hit this over in two of those, it seems clear the Red Sox are playing it safe with him. Tonight he gets a tough Astros lineup as well, one that strikes out well below league average and has several massive power spots.
Right now Sale is getting a projection of 5.3 on Stokastic, which makes this a close play, but the under is getting the edge with a 54% win expectancy.
Best MLB Sleeper Play: Chris Sale Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1.75x)
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Clayton Kershaw O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
Who would have ever thought Kershaw would be getting a 4.5-strikeout line in our lifetime? Alas, coming off three straight unders on 4.5, Kershaw is now entering the “average strikeout pitcher” pool of higher/lower numbers. The matchup with the Guardians is not helping things either, as they have the lowest strikeout rate in all of MLB.
However, Cleveland also hits for less power than any team in baseball, with an ISO 13 whole points lower than the second-worst team. So even if Kershaw is not blowing away the Guardians at a high rate, he should be able to hang in the game long enough to get a fifth strikeout.
Kershaw is averaging 9.5 strikeouts per nine in 2023; that paces him to reach his fifth whiff in the fifth, and he has finished five innings in 15 of 18 starts (83.3%). He has also struck out at least five in 13 of 18, so despite the cold streak, Kershaw is due for some positive regression. Stokastic projects him for 5.3 tonight.
Best MLB Sleeper Play: Clayton Kershaw Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1.80x)
All together, this three-pick entry comes with a 5.57x payout.
