Monday wraps up the holiday weekend with a full day of MLB action starting at 2:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, while Yahoo is running out a 4:05 p.m. ET main slate. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $33
Life certainly can move quickly, and RHP Lucas Giolito has been in a vortex of change. After posting a solid 3.79 ERA and 117 ERA+ through 21 starts with the White Sox, Chicago dealt the 29-year-old to the Angels at the trade deadline. Giolito struggled during his six starts in Anaheim, with an embarrassing 6.89 ERA and 66 ERA+ across 32.2 innings. After their playoff push collapsed in spectacular fashion, the Halos put half a dozen players through waivers, including Giolito, who was claimed by the Guardians, which brings us to the present as the baseball nomad makes his debut for Cleveland.
Over the last 30 days, the Minnesota Twins have produced at a top-10 rate of 4.88 runs per game and a 121 wRC+ through 26 games. Fortunately for DFS gamers, they have provided ample strikeouts with a 26.3% rate during this stretch. The projected lineup for today has four different players who have struck out 30% or more this season against right-handed hurlers, and three more are just above 24%. This lineup does pack a wallop with a collective .193 ISO against righties this season, which does give some pause to over-rostering Giolito. The $33 salary on Yahoo takes out most of the risk, while DraftKings ($8,600) is neutral and FanDuel ($9,400) is a borderline avoid.
Fortunately, there are ample alternatives on this slate, with RHPs Grayson Rodriguez, Corbin Burnes and a struggling Pablo Lopez viable plays.
Afternoon Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Merrill Kelly vs. Colorado Rockies — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $48
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes this matchup for RHP Merrill Kelly, who should bounce back after being curb stomped by the Dodgers in Los Angeles last Tuesday in a game that saw him allow seven runs across five innings, with one lonely strikeout. Kelly has always been a solid real-life pitcher, though far from a DFS darling. That has changed this season, as his 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings are well above his 8.1 career mark and closing the last gap in his pitching profile.
Over the last 30 days, the Rockies have struck out at a league-high 28.4% rate, and their 71 wRC+ is the second worst during this timeframe. They also spent the last week in the thin Denver air, and we know that it often takes teams a day to get reacclimated to breaking balls after Coors Field series. The projected lineup has a strikeout rate approaching 30% against right-handed pitchers this season and a below-average .149 ISO. Kelly looks like a strong option in all formats across the various DFS sites this afternoon.
Afternoon Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Jose Berrios at Oakland Athletics — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $37
A matchup against the Oakland Athletics is just what the doctor ordered to get RHP Jose Berrios back on track after his recent four-game slide. In his last 22 innings, the 29-year-old righty has scuffled to a 5.73 ERA, a 6.08 FIP and a .275 batting average against. He also has allowed six of his 21 home runs during this stretch, which is a blemish on an otherwise sterling season that has the erstwhile ace among the top-25 fantasy producers.
The A’s had a great weekend in Oakland, sweeping the Angels and scoring 21 runs during the three-game series. However, this is only the second time this season that the Athletics have won more than two consecutive games, which almost seems impossible. While the team has likely dodged the ignominy of posting the worst 162-game record in MLB history (43-119, 2003 Detroit Tigers), the A’s would need to win half of their remaining games to avoid landing among the 10 worst teams of all-time.
The Athletics do have some pop in their lineup, but it is accompanied by a 26.3% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. If Berrios can keep the bases relatively clean, he should survive the inevitable home run while coasting to a quality start with a half dozen or more strikeouts.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles at LHP Kenny Rosenberg — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Rookie LHP Kenny Rosenberg has been recalled from Triple-A Salt Lake to slot into the Los Angeles rotation. The 28-year-old rookie was chosen in the eighth round of the 2016 MLB Draft by Tampa Bay after spending three years at Cal State Northridge. He bounced between the rotation and the bullpen, never quite being able to break through, and he was subsequently claimed by the Angels after the Rays granted him his release. Walks have been an issue in his brief MLB career, with 13 in 17.2 innings across five appearances. Though he has not been particularly impressive in the minors, Los Angeles is running short on arms with Shohei Ohtani (elbow) relegated to offense only, Giolito now with the Guardians and Chase Silseth (concussion) on the injured list. Rosenberg is stretched out, but this feels more like a sacrificial lamb situation, as he profiles better as a reliever.
We should see a righty-laden lineup from the Orioles tonight, as they look to hold the platoon advantage up and down the batting order. This means Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays should be in prominent slots in the top half of the order, with switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander nestled in between. James McCann is a cheap power bat who also fulfills the catcher requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo. Jorge Mateo should be in the lineup as well, though he is always a pinch-hit risk when a right-hander comes in the game.
Afternoon Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHP Peter Lambert — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Over his last five appearances, RHP Peter Lambert has been a below-replacement-level pitcher. In his 31 innings, split between Coors Field and various road venues, he has a 5.23 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, half a dozen home runs and only 23 strikeouts. Since moving into the rotation, he has done a good job of limiting walks, but the tradeoff has been way too many balls in play. This is not a good mix when facing a well-rounded team like Arizona that has patience, power and, of course, speed on the basepaths.
Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Christian Walker are the trio to target, with outfielders Tommy Pham, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Alek Thomas in the next wave for those looking to craft five-man stacks. Keep tabs on the status of Pham (finger), who was a late scratch yesterday, and Walker (elbow), who did show out with his 30th home run of the season on Sunday.
Afternoon Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners at RHP Tejay Antone — 5.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
The Mariners get a major boost from their pitching-friendly home park to the cozy confines of the Great American Ballpark, which is one of the most homer-happy venues in the league. Even better, they will be facing a depleted Cincinnati pitching corps missing Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, Ben Lively and Fernando Cruz (COVID), Nick Lodolo (leg) and Graham Ashcraft (toe). The Reds used six relievers yesterday, and Sam Moll and Buck Farmer worked on Friday and Saturday. There will likely be a callup or two from the minors, but the cupboard is barren there as well.
Pretty much anyone donning an M’s uniform today is a viable stacking candidate. The obvious plays, of course, are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh and leadoff man J.P. Crawford. Towards the back of the order, Dominic Canzone and Mike Ford can be utilized as discounted differentiators.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Well that is annoying, RHPÂ Luis Medina is starting this afternoon for Oakland. Pivot to a fun wager with RHPÂ Merrill Kelly taking on the Colorado Rockies. Currently he has a 7.5 strikeout prop, that is +125, though that is slightly unfavorable with “true odds” of +132. This is a reasonable situation for a “ladder” if your sportsbook of choice offers alternate lines. Something along the lines of say $10, $5, $3, $2 and$1 (proportionally adjusted for your bankroll size) with 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 strikeouts.
While LHP Ken Waldichuk is far removed from DFS consideration today, we can look to him in the sports wagering market for his strikeout prop. Currently, Waldichuk has a +128 payout to record more than five strikeouts. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the +130 expectation of this outcome is relatively neutral, but taking the plus money against the Toronto Blue Jays — who are halfway through their road trip, having spent the weekend in Coors Field — looks like a savvy move.
The Jays projected lineup has a low 19.7% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. However, Waldichuk is usually good for around 90 to 95 pitches, and he is averaging a strikeout per inning on the year. We just need him to be effective for five innings, and he should be able to surpass today’s strikeout threshold.
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Final Thoughts for Monday, September 4 | MLB DFS Picks
Most venues are looking at warm weather for the afternoon action, with no notable precipitation risks. Chicago, Cincinnati and Kansas City should see temperatures in the low-90s, and Cleveland is not too far off, with the mercury settling in the mid-80s during the game window.
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