MLB Underdog Pick'em Props: Twins-Guardians a Gold Mine (September 4)

MLB pick’em today turns to Underdog Fantasy for the best value on the slate, offering some great plays on the midafternoon and early-evening games and focusing especially on a couple correlative plays in the Twins-Guardians matchup. Today’s Underdog MLB pick has three picks, and the standard payout for getting every one right is 6x (all three have to hit). An insured play will pay out 3x if all three connect (1x if two of three hit).

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MLB Underdog Pick’em Predictions | Sept. 4

Mike Ford O/U 0.5 Total Bases

With a righty on the mound for Cincinnati, Ford is probably going to be in the lineup towards the back end of the order. Normally a platoon player at the bottom of the order is not the most favorable over play, but a few things are working here in Ford’s favor. The most obvious is the line being 0.5 instead of 1.5 since Ford needs just a lone hit to cash. Then there is also the matter of this absolute wild card of a pitching matchup in Tejay Antone.

Antone had been out of baseball for two years due to Tommy John surgery prior to a one-inning appearance a couple days ago. In that one Antone threw 10 whole pitches, allowing a baserunner and striking out one. For his total career, his numbers are solid: sub-1.000 WHIP, 2.44 career ERA — but this is still in only 70 career innings. And honestly, it could all be irrelevant since Antone is probably only going to open and Ford will get at most one shot at him. But Antone is the only confirmed pitcher today, so it is worth noting that Ford is hitting .261 with a .602 slugging for his career against right-handed pitchers.

Ford has also been seeing the ball well lately, with hits in four of his last six games. One crack at Antone in the first or second inning could be enough to cash this, but if not, any righty reliever will be a solid matchup for Ford. Pick’Em Pro has him for 1.8 total bases today.

Best MLB Underdog Play: Mike Ford Over 0.5 Total Bases

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Pablo Lopez O/U 5.5 Strikeouts

Lopez’s red-hot August came to a screeching halt his last two starts, as he surrendered a combined eight runs on 18 hits, including four home runs, all while failing to strike out more than five in either outing. That said, the four starts prior to that had Lopez as one of the best pitchers in the game — 0.36 ERA, .484 OPS against and six strikeouts or more in three of the four. He is also getting a solid matchup in the Guardians despite being on the road.

Though Cleveland has been one of the least strikeout-prone teams on the whole season, it has struck out the 13th most over the last couple weeks while posting a sub-.700 team OPS. Plus, Progressive Field is a considerably more pitcher-friendly ballpark than Lopez’s home stadium, and Lopez’s two recent blowups were both home games. He is striking out batters at a slightly higher rate on the road and is also allowing significantly less offense away from Minnesota. With Lopez projecting for 6.3 strikeouts today, Stokastic’s Pick’Em Pro gives him a 52% chance of exceeding 5.5 strikeouts.

Best MLB Underdog Play: Pablo Lopez Over 5.5 Strikeouts

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Steven Kwan O/U 1.5 Total Bases

For just a little bit of correlation, why not target an under play on one of the Guardians batters to go along with a Lopez strikeout over? Kwan is not exactly one to strike out much — in fact, his strikeout rate is the lowest on the team. However, he also offers very little in terms of power and does not have the multi-hit upside to expect a lot from him against Lopez, even with Kwan likely leading off.

One may point to Kwan’s 4-for-7 career mark against Lopez as a reason to back him tonight. However, there are two things wrong with that logic: One, as always, batter versus pitcher is moot in predictive analysis since sample sizes are too small to draw conclusions; two, all four hits were singles. And that is essentially the issue here with Kwan. He can get hits — his .272 average is pretty solid — but the .105 isolated power means that singles are typically his route to multiple total bases. Of his 58 overs on 1.5 bases, 42 were multi-hit games. Fifty-eight overs still only put him at 44.3% anyway.

Against a strikeout pitcher in need of a bounce back, Kwan is projecting comfortably under 1.5 total bases at 1.1 in Pick’Em Pro.

Best MLB Underdog Play: Steven Kwan Under 1.5 Total Bases

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.