Tuesday has a pair of doubleheaders, which means day baseball leading to a robust featured slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Tonight RHP Justin Verlander has a stellar matchup against the Oakland Athletics, and Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr., along with Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez and Teoscar Hernandez, look like solid stacking components to counter the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Justin Verlander vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $47
After allowing four home runs to the New York Yankees to start the month, RHP Justin Verlander righted the ship with a seven-inning performance against the Rangers in Texas, where he allowed two runs (one earned) and struck out half a dozen. Tonight the 40-year-old veteran ace has a softer matchup against the visiting Oakland Athletics.
The A’s projected lineup does have some pop, but that comes along with a 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, a low 6.2% walk rate during the same period and an overall lack of baserunners. The key will be for the bases to be empty when the inevitable extra-base hits occur, so we can enjoy the fruits of the strikeout upside in this matchup.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Freddy Peralta vs. Miami Marlins — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $40
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Freddy Peralta looking like a strong tournament option against the Miami Marlins. Over his last eight games, the veteran pitcher has been outstanding with a 2.09 ERA, 1.97 FIP and a .162 batting average against. Most impressive is the 73 strikeouts across these 47.1 frames for 13.9 per nine innings.
Over the last 30 days, Miami has averaged only 3.92 runs per game, courtesy of an 87 wRC+ that is the fifth lowest in the league during this period. Josh Bell (17.6%), Luis Arraez (7.1%) and Joey Wendle (12.3%) keep the overall strikeout total low for the team, but there are still four Marlins in the projected lineup that strike out at a 23% rate or higher against right-handed pitchers.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo vs. Los Angeles Angels — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,900 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $35
Tonight RHP Bryan Woo looks like a delightful SP2 play on DraftKings and Yahoo. After struggling last Monday against the Reds in Cincinnati, allowing five runs in five innings with zero strikeouts, Seattle pushed the rookie back a few days in the rotation. Woo missed close to three weeks at the beginning of August with forearm inflammation. In his two starts after returning from the injured list, the 23-year-old tossed 10 innings of one-run ball in games against Oakland and in Chicago versus the White Sox.
Last night the Angels rallied to beat the Mariners in Seattle, with an 8-5 victory in the 11th inning. The Mariners are now half a game behind the Texas Rangers for the final Wild Card berth in the American League and one game behind the Toronto Blue Jay. Anaheim saw Shohei Ohtani (oblique) as a late scratch, missing his eighth consecutive game. The projected lineup down the stretch for the Halos is filled with declining veterans and inexperienced prospects. Even when Ohtani returns to action, this is going to be a team to regularly pick on with opposing pitchers.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres at RHP Lance Lynn — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
What is old is new again, and then it reverts back to equilibrium. Sadly for RHP Lance Lynn, that means allowing lots of extra-base hits and runs. When the 36-year-old veteran of a dozen MLB campaigns first donned the Dodger blue, he was treated to a series of smooth matchups, including games against Oakland, Colorado, Milwaukee and a depleted Boston squad. In his first five appearances for Los Angeles, he had a pristine 2.03 ERA, but the 4.68 FIP indicated he was getting lucky. Over his last two starts, he has allowed 15 runs in nine innings, with six home runs and a scant two strikeouts. Yikes!
Look to the power-bat trio of Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto and Manny Machado as the foundational build blocks for any San Diego stack. This crew is going to be underrepresented in tournaments with the spendy pitching options on the slate and, of course, the Coors Field Extravaganza boasting a 12.5 projected run total.
Main Slate Wild Card Target: Seattle Mariners vs. LHP Patrick Sandoval — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Walks have been a major issue for LHP Patrick Sandoval, and in his last five starts, he has issued 20 free passes in just 22 innings of action. Additionally he has a 6.55 ERA during this stretch that is not inclusive of an additional eight unearned runs. For the season, Sandoval has a low 19.8% strikeout rate and an inflated 10.8% walk rate. The only saving grace is his ability to limit power with a ground ball rate approaching 50%, but that cannot bail him out every start.
Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez are the obvious Mariners in the middle of the order. The lineup should get a boost with Jarred Kelenic able to suit up once again, and he has held his own in lefty-lefty matchups this season, with a .361 wOBA and .230 ISO in 78 plate appearances. Dylan Moore is a fine discount dandy, and he has a solid track record against southpaws. The Anaheim bullpen is not particularly daunting, and most of the relievers have seen action in the last two days.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Though the Mets were not a featured stack for their matchup against RHP Ryne Nelson, they do look good against him tonight. We can also look to go against Nelson in the sports wagering market for his strikeout prop.
Currently, the wager is listed at -160 for under 4.5 strikeouts. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the -178 “true odds” of Nelson failing to record five strikeouts against the Mets indicates this line is inefficient by nearly 4%.
In his last nine starts, Nelson has recorded five or more strikeouts on only two occasions. During these 40 innings of action, he has just 21 total strikeouts, barely notching one every other inning. While this under has a heavy tax, it does have a 64% probability of coming to fruition. For those looking to spice things up, this can be employed as part of a straight or same-game parlay to create a higher payout potential.
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Final Thoughts for Tuesday, September 12 | MLB DFS Picks
There is a fair amount of rain in the forecast, and as we saw yesterday, there can be poor outcomes even when things seemed to be OK just a few hours before. The doubleheader in Boston could see some rain, but the teams should get both games in today. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have higher risk for precipitation, so it is all about timing. Be sure to monitor the analysis from your favorite DFS weather resources closer to first pitch.
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