College football Week 3 continues with a two-game Thursday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 3 DFS picks and projections for Thursday, Sept. 14.
CFB Week 3 DFS Picks and Projections | Thursday
Quarterback
Seth Henigan ($8,400): This slate has two clear-cut quarterback options, with Navy running a triple option and Bethune-Cookman using a rotation. Seth Henigan highlights this list in the more competitive game. Memphis is a 14.5-point favorite over Navy in a game with a 46.5-point total. The Tigers have a 43.1% pass rate this season, but do not be fooled: This team has played two cupcakes, and last year its pass rate exceeded 50%. Henigan has decent mobility, with 461 career rushing yards. He also averaged 273.8 pass yards last year, giving him the best floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
Tyler Van Dyke ($8,400): Miami takes on an FCS school in Bethune-Cookman as a massive favorite after beating Texas A&M 48-33 last week. In that game, quarterback Tyler Van Dyke threw for 374 yards and five touchdowns on just 30 attempts. Van Dyke could experience similar efficiency here, but he is less likely to play the whole game. He also doesn’t have any mobility, which makes him a slightly less attractive price-adjusted play.
Tai Lavatai ($6,600): For a pure GPP play, Tai Lavatai has a scary floor and lower ceiling due to Navy’s offense. He essentially needs multiple rushing touchdowns or a 100-yard bonus to hit value. With that said, Lavatai has 12 and 15 designed rush attempts over the last two weeks.
Running Back
Henry Parrish Jr. ($7,800): Henry Parrish Jr. has led a four-back committee through two weeks. However, his 22 touches are well ahead of Ajay Allen at 14 touches. Mark Fletcher Jr. ($5,900) sustained an injury last week, which may narrow this rotation to three backs instead of two. With elite efficiency projected, Parrish has one of the top projections on the slate.
Blake Watson ($6,300): The lead back for Memphis, Blake Watson has touched the ball 39 times over the last two weeks. This includes a 24-touch outing against Arkansas State last week. Sutton Smith ($5,800) still has 29 touches in that span, but Watson appears to have overtaken him. Smith can be used for GPPs, and Jevyon Ducker ($4,800) could even be a deep name to consider. However, Watson is the top price-adjusted play.
Ajay Allen ($4,700): Miami continues to deal with running back injuries. This could mean more work for change-of-pace backs Allen and Donald Chaney Jr. ($4,600). Allen has played ahead of Chaney, out-touching him 14-11 this season. While both are viable in GPP’s, Allen should get a slight edge over Chaney. For those getting off the board, playing two Miami backs could be contrarian.
Daba Fofana ($5,400): Navy’s triple option offense leads to multiple-back sets. Daba Fofana typically occupies the fullback position, leading to the second-most carries behind the quarterbacks. Fofana has little to no passing game role, but he already has 23 carries in two weeks. He functions as a touchdown-dependent GPP option.
Brandon Chatman ($5,200): For those looking at GPP running backs, the Navy slot backs are interesting options. Specifically, Brandon Chatman has 13 carries and five targets through two games. Chatman also has a 67% route participation. Amin Hassan ($4,500) and Alex Tecza ($4,900) occupy similar GPP roles in the offense.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
Wide Receiver
DeMeer Blankumsee ($5,500): Toledo transfer DeMeer Blankumsee has emerged as the early favorite for WR1 duties in Memphis. He led the team with an 85% route rate last week, which ranked narrowly ahead of Roc Taylor ($5,200) and Joe Scates ($5,000) at 82% and 64%, respectively. Some may be enticed by Tauskie Dove ($4,900) or Koby Drake ($4,500), but their route rates trailed at 18% and 36% last week. Blankumsee, Scates and Taylor should receive most of the attention in that order, with tight end Anthony Landphere ($3,800) being the top GPP play.
Xavier Restrepo ($6,200): Miami has played Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George ($6,400) and Colbie Young ($6,000) as its clear top three receivers. Restrepo leads the team with an 84.5% route rate and 15 targets. He is cheaper than George and well ahead of Young in terms of routes and targets. While all three are viable, Restrepo is the top price-adjusted play.
Daveno Ellington ($4,100): Bethune-Cookman hasn’t received much praise thus far. On top of its underdog status, it uses a four-running back committee and two quarterbacks. Daveno Ellington, Dacarri Allen-Johnson ($4,300) and Tink Boyd ($4,000) are the top three pass catchers. They all have route rates between 66% and 67% so far, but Ellington and Allen-Johnson are tied for the team lead with 11 targets. They can be sprinkled in GPPs.
Jayden Umbarger ($3,900): Navy uses Camari Williams ($4,200) and Jayden Umbarger as the clear top two receivers. Both have three targets, but Umbarger’s 78% route share is ahead of Williams’ 67% route share. Both are pure GPP fliers.
