Thursday brings a travel day with early MLB action starting at 1:05 p.m. ET, leading into a seven-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups. Including RHP Marcus Stroman, who is in the midst of a career year and a pair of unlikely stack recommendations in the Guardians and White Sox.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $47
Tonight it is going to be on the colder side in Chicago with game-time temperatures likely to dip into the upper-50s and a 12-17 mph breeze blowing in from left-center field. That combined with the high groundball rate for RHPÂ Marcus Stroman against a substandard offense, creates an excellent foundation piece.
Stroman typically induces a groundball rate in the mid-50% range, while limiting power and providing just enough strikeouts to keep things interesting from a fantasy perspective. The 32-year-old is having his best season in years with a 2.42 ERA and 1.04 WHIP that are well below his career averages (3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP). He also has 12 quality starts in 14 opportunities which leads the league and those bonus points are why his FanDuel salary is elevated for this matchup.
Pittsburgh has a decent offense, but the lack of a terrifying hitter makes them a team to pick on. Over the last 10 games, the Pirates have scored more than five runs only twice. The projected lineup has been mediocre at best against right-handed pitchers. During the last season-plus, they are just above the bottom-third of the league with a 93 wRC+, .148 ISO and 21.3% strikeout rate.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Cristian Javier vs. Washington Nationals — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $49
RHP Cristian Javier continues to be a steady starting pitcher for Houston, though his strikeouts are down to just over one per inning after averaging 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings in the two prior seasons – albeit in a hybrid starter/reliever role. Washington has lost eight of nine games and over the last 20 games, the Nationals have scored more than four runs on just six occasions.
The Nats projected lineup does a good job of limiting strikeouts, though they have a .135 ISO over the last season-plus, which is the fourth lowest in the league. They also have a 6.0% walk rate against right-handed pitchers during this timeframe which is the lowest in the league. Javier’s backers will be paying full-freight tonight, though he does have a good chance at his eighth victory on the season with Houston installed as -200 favorites to garner the win.
Keep an eye on the Atlanta forecast, if it improves then rookie RHPÂ AJ Smith-Shawver is an excellent secondary pitching option in his matchup against Colorado.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Taj Bradley at Oakland Athletics — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:37 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $9,800 | Yahoo n/a
After the Athletics put up three runs in the second inning against RHP Tyler Glasnow, it looked like Oakland was on the way to an eighth straight victory. Fortunately for the Glasnow backers, that was all the A’s offense could muster on the night. This afternoon they will be wrapping up the series against Tampa Bay with RHP Taj Bradley getting the honors.
Bradley was a fifth round selection in the 2017 MLB Draft and like many young players, his development was put on hold when the pandemic resulted in the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season. The Rays continued to ease Bradley into a larger workload each season while steadily moving him up the farm system ranks. The injury to veteran LHPÂ Jeffery Springs left a void in the Tampa rotation, so Bradley was promoted to The Show, despite only 75 combined innings at Triple-A over the last two seasons.
The 22-year-old right-handed hurler is the second best prospect in the Tampa Bay system and he landed just inside the top 50 MiLB prospects as ranked by various industry publications. Bradley has an outstanding fastball that averages 96 mph that meshes well with his 88 mph cutter/slider. Do not expect the 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings to continue as this has been across a very small eight-start sample size, but one whiff per inning is a reasonable expectation, with some upside in this particular matchup.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Chicago White Sox at RHP Michael Grove — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Whoa, when I woke up this morning, I had no idea that I would be recommending the Chicago White Sox as the top stack of the day. Of course the matchup against RHPÂ Michael Grove is rather enticing after struggling in his first two games since returning from a groin injury. While the 26-year-old was solid in a pair of rehabilitation outings for Triple-A Oklahoma City, the Yankees and Phillies each found success in their respective matchups. Across nine combined innings, Grove was tattooed for eight earned runs and five extra-base hits, including a pair of round-trippers.
The ChiSox have dealt with a variety of injured players this season, though the offensive is finally intact. Andrew Vaughn, Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert Jr. all have ample power against right-handed pitching. For the late-slate, Jake Burger and Gavin Sheets are the discount dandies who also have some pop in their bats. Lastly, we can look to longtime Dodger Yasmani Grandal to fill out the pesky backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Cleveland Guardians at LHP Ryan Weathers — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks tool has identified the Cleveland Guardians as one of the better fantasy point per dollar stacks for tournaments tonight. This is heavily driven by switch-hitting Josh Bell who is only $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel. The journeyman does his best work from the right-side of the plate and while this will cost us our first base slot on DraftKings, it unlocks all sorts of potential lineup configurations.
Poor LHPÂ Ryan Weathers has already had a rough season. After three decent starts, he was relegated to the bullpen and then sent down to Triple-A for a pair of outings. He has been back up in The Show for his last five starts, though in his last three he has failed to make it beyond the fourth inning, with only 8.2 total innings in this trio of tilts. Home runs have been an issue with the 23-year-old ceding four during this stretch.
Cleveland sets up well against southpaws with shortstop Amed Rosario typically batting second and switch-hitting superstar Jose Ramirez working out of the three-hole. This duo along with Bell are the main targets, with catcher Mike Zunino in the mix for his light tower power, if he does make contact. Because of the low implied run total and DFS gamers typically avoiding the Guardians, Cleveland is a great secondary stack tonight.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Unfortunately the precipitation risk in Atlanta has this game looking risky from a DFS perspective as there could be a post-lock postponement. Of course we can still take advantage of the Atlanta bats against LHP Kyle Freeland in the sports wagering market, since often times when there is a delayed start, that gives extra time to watch the forecast – where as in the DFS contest, players are locked.
Austin Riley and Ronald Acuna Jr. both stand out for their power against southpaws. Looking at the new true odds feature from OddsShopper, we can see that there is a little inefficiency in their respective home run lines of +300 and +305 each granting an extra 2-3% upside based on the projected likelihood of a longball.
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Joey Meneses of the Nationals stands out with the biggest discrepancy between his +750 wager to hit a home run and his “true odds” of +664 indicating there is nearly a 10% expected ROI upside in this line. While he is a longshot to hit a home run off of RHPÂ Cristian Javier, the way this line currently sets up, it is like the sportsbook is giving us a 10% booster, without us having to do any legwork.
We can also flip the sorting feature to look for the worst home run numbers and using Kevin Kiermaier as an example, the books have him as a +950 long shot against RHP Tyler Wells, but with “true odds” of +1400, we can see that the books are looking to take advantage of someone who is not savvy enough to use tools and a little effort to suss out bad lines.
Early Slate Target: Philadelphia Phillies at RHP Ryne Nelson — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:40 p.m. ET
The Phillies are likely to be sad that this is their last game in Chase Field, after plating 27 runs through the first three tilts of this series. In his first season as a regular in the rotation, rookie RHPÂ Ryne Nelson has been adequate with a 4.95 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and a 1.07 home run per nine innings rate. Unfortunately his 5.5 strikeouts per nine innings do not help him get out of jams and that is a major red flag for a pitcher with fly ball tendencies. Plus, looking at his collective total extra-base hit rate of 3.9 per nine innings, it is only a matter of time before se see Nelson spontaneously combust on the mound.
Look to the typical power bats with Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos being the preferred plays. Considering this is a day game after a night game, we could see Brandon Marsh or Kody Clemens slide up a slot or two in the batting order if one of the regulars receives a reprieve before the team heads to Oaklands for a weekend series.
Final Thoughts for Thursday, June 15 | MLB DFS Picks
Atlanta is the only weather spot to watch today and it is too far out to determine just how risky it will be to roster players from that game tonight. It is important to monitor this situation as this game as one of the best point per dollar pitching options on the board as well as some intriguing home run options.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Deeper Dive Live Before Lock Shows, at 5:45 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper.
