We are coming into the third major of the season with a little first-round leader momentum after we chopped an Aaron Rai first-round leader bet last week and also hit a full top-5 at +1000.
The course for this year’s U.S. Open looks very non-traditional. The Los Angeles Country Club is going to play with one cut of thick Bermuda rough and plenty of natural impediments (barrancas) that may work to swallow up golf balls or give out the odd lucky break here and there. Chambers Bay and Pinehurst No. 2 may be good comparables. The course will play as a long par 70 and feature plenty of back-breaking tests of par (like two 280-yard par 3’s) and some chances for scoring as well (drivable par 4’s). All in all, expect this course to offer a few more decent scoring opportunities than usual at a U.S. Open, and for more players to (potentially) shoot some decent scores here.
As always, this column will use the OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for U.S. Open first-round leader selections.
U.S. Open First-Round Leader Bets
The weather looks mostly benign, with temperatures in the low 70s for the afternoon wave and minimal wind. The greens should play somewhat quicker in the afternoon as the weather warms, though, and lower scores may come from the morning wave both days. For first-round leader bets, splitting between waves is fine, although if you are stuck between two players, leaning to the morning tee time is preferred.
Bryson DeChambeau First-Round Leader (+5000) at DraftKings
Bryson DeChambeau led the PGA Championship after Day 1, and given the way he is playing of late, there is no harm in taking a shot on him repeating that feat at the Los Angeles Country Club. DeChambeau has slimmed down but is still ripping it off the tee and gained a ginormous 7.5 strokes off the tee alone for the week at Oak Hill. It is hard to say if his kind of power will provide him the same kind of advantage at the Los Angeles Country Club, but even in a non-traditional setup, some of these holes are brutally long (and the rough extra thick). That should favor DeChambeau, who will likely have an easier time scoring on the shorter par 4’s and par 5’s than the field. Given the early tee time he has for Thursday, he makes sense as a mid-tier play and looks incredibly undervalued at 50-1 for a fast start given the U.S. Open setup.
Si Woo Kim First-Round Leader (+7000) at DraftKings
Si Woo Kim First Round Top 5 (+1300) at DraftKings
Si Woo Kim did everything but win in his last start at the Memorial. He gained 12 strokes tee to green at Muirfield and tied with eventual winner Viktor Hovland for the week in birdies or better made (19). Kim’s ball striking has been immaculate over his last few starts, and if he brings any kind of positivity with the putter, he could shoot a low score on this tougher layout. Thursday rounds have been one of Kim’s best this season as well, as he comes into the U.S. Open ranked 14th in first-round scoring. He has played well in California before at numerous stops (including Riviera in 2019 when he finished top 5) and is playing too well to overlook at this price for Thursday. An early tee time should give him a great chance at cracking the top 5 and getting in contention for his first major win.
U.S. Open First Round Leader Longshot Bets
Longshots often hit in the first-round market and are worth adding to betting cards. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.
Justin Suh First Round Leader (+11000) at BetMGM
Justin Suh First Round Top 5 (+2500) at BetMGM
Suh endured a roller coaster in his last outing at Muirfield Village. He went into Round 3 as the tournament leader and then proceeded to fall apart on the biggest stage of his career, shooting rounds of 77 and 79 to finish in 41st. While his ball striking did not hold up for four rounds, Suh did look good in that aspect of the game on Thursday and Friday, and for first-round leader purposes, a hot start is really all that matters. He has shot under par in four straight Thursday rounds and might be putting better than almost anyone on the PGA, as has gained over three strokes putting in six of his last seven PGA Tour starts. Suh is a California native who has experience playing at the Los Angeles Country Club, and that advantage could help him early on. Despite a later tee time on Thursday, he is a solid back at this price given his recent surge.
Patrick Rodgers First Round Leader (+13000) at DraftKings
Patrick Rodgers First Round Top 10 (+1000) at DraftKings
Rodgers is another California native who knows this track and, as a Stanford graduate, also has some experience playing the venue. It is worth mentioning the players who know the Los Angeles Country Club a little, as this venue is basically off limits to the public and most pros will be stepping on the venue for the first time ever. Rodgers also has a few other things going for him (more than just course history) that make him a good target at this price. He is in the midst of one of his best seasons ever from a stat perspective and gained over a stroke on approach, around the greens and putting at the Memorial. His finish there was not what he had hoped for given where he started Sunday, but he has made three cuts in a row and was 29th at Oak Hill for the PGA. An early tee time makes Rodgers a great longshot to target for Thursday, especially in this major given he is a career 4-for-4 in made cuts.
