Thursday’s slate is only seven games, but that makes it a great spot to utilize Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections to find the edges. The Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools will help you identify the top leverage plays and find MLB DFS value plays. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley and Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for the Los Angeles Angels so there’s a lot of pitching to breakdown, in addition to some offenses being overlooked. Let’s break down the MLB DFS value picks for Thursday’s main slate on DraftKings.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 15
Detroit Tigers (Matthew Boyd) at Minnesota Twins (Sonny Gray)
Sonny Gray looks like the best pitching option on the slate. He has an excellent matchup against the Detroit Tigers. Detroit’s active roster is dead last with a 77 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. They also have a 24.6% strikeout rate. Gray has struck out 25.2% of hitters this season, with a 3.59 xFIP. Boyd is only $5,800 on DraftKings, which makes him a reasonable value option at SP2 if you need to save money. The Twins’ lineup offers value as well. Byron Buxton is the only player north of $4,000 on DraftKings. The Twins are first in Stack Score thanks to an 18.4% chance of being the top value stack in addition to an 8.5% chance of being the top scoring stack on the slate.
Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland) at Atlanta Braves (AJ Smith-Shawver)
AJ Smith-Shawver offers value as an SP2 at $5,500. He’s in a favorable matchup against the Colorado Rockies. Smith-Schawver threw 86 pitches in 5.1 innings last start, so we shouldn’t be overly concerned about his ability to work somewhat deep into games. Colorado is one of the worst offenses in baseball and Smith-Shawver projects for a 22-23% strikeout rate for the rest of the season. Atlanta has a good matchup against Kyle Freeland, who has allowed a .218 xISO against right-handed hitters this season to go with a .354 xwOBA. The Braves lead the slate with about a 15% chance of being the top stack.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Johan Oviedo) at Chicago Cubs (Marcus Stroman)
We have great pitching weather in this game as the wind is blowing in at Wrigley and the temperature is about sixty degrees. Marcus Stroman is projected for the second highest ownership on the slate with the fifth highest chance of being a top two scoring pitcher. Johan Oviedo isn’t as good a pitcher as Stroman, but he is $1,500 less expensive on DraftKings which makes him a viable mid-range option, and decent MLB DFS value play.
Los Angeles Angels (Shohei Ohtani) at Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi)
This game is a battle of two aces in relatively difficult matchups. Texas is one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but Ohtani leads the slate with a 33.3% strikeout percentage this season. Eovaldi consistently works deep into games and has a healthy 24.9% strikeout rate of his own. The Angels active roster has struck out 22.8% of the time against right-handed pitching with a 111 wRC+ this season while the Rangers have a 122 wRC+ and 22.7% strikeout rate. There is low owned upside in the offenses given their talent, but the pitching projects as the better side of the game with Ohtani leading the slate with a 26.2% chance of being a top two pitcher and Nathan Eovaldi ranking fourth at 19.2%. It’s possible that all four sides of the game come in underowned as people are scared off by the difficult matchups for everyone involved.
Washington Nationals (MacKenzie Gore) at Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
Javier has a tough strikeout matchup as the Nationals have only struck out 19.3 percent of the time against right-handed pitching this season, but they are also the second least productive offense with an 83 wRC+. Javier is projected to go slightly underowned with a 21.3% chance of being a top two pitcher at 18% ownership. Gore has a difficult matchup as Houston’s active roster has a 125 wRC+ and 16.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. Gore has made substantial improvements this season, striking out 28.2% of hitters with a 3.63 xFIP. He is inexpensive and low owned, which makes him a viable contrarian play in tournaments, but he will have his work cut out for him tonight. He has also struggled a bit with power this season, allowing 1.43 home runs per nine innings with a .163 xISO allowed to righties and a .233 xISO allowed to lefties. The Astros rank fourth in top stack percentage at 8.2%.
Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen) at San Diego Padres (Ryan Weathers)
This is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball which limits the interest in the offenses a bit. Weathers is one of the weaker pitchers on the slate, but Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball. Individually, however, Jose Ramirez and Amed Rosario stand out as excellent plays at $4,500 and $3,200, respectively. Allen is having a strong rookie season, striking out 22.8% of hitters with a 3.89 xFIP. The Padres are a difficult matchup, but he is projected for a 17% chance of being a top two scoring pitcher and a 21.5% chance of being a top two value pitcher at just 11% ownership.
Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Michael Grove)
Grove is only $5,200 on DraftKings and is facing a Chicago club that has an 88 wRC+ and 22.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Grove has struck out 22.3% of hitters with a 4.31 xFIP this season and has a 30.9% chance of being a top two value pitcher in the Top Pitchers tool. Cease is only pulling about 6% ownership, which makes him an interesting mid-range target in tournaments at just $8,200. He has struggled a bit to start the season, with a 4.30 xFIP and a 25% strikeout rate that is well below what we typically expect from him, however. The real issue is that he will have to face a Los Angeles squad that has a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The Dodgers rank second in top stack percentage at 9.1 percent, but they are also expensive with just a 1.9 percent chance of being the top MLB DFS value stack.
