Sunday brings all-day baseball, with the featured action getting underway at 1:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel, and Yahoo looking at a 4:07 p.m. ET main slate. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Sandy Alcantara at Washington Nationals — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $45
Across his last dozen appearances, RHP Sandy Alcantara has been chugging along with a 3.22 ERA, 4.28 FIP and a .248 batting average against. The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner has allowed four multi-home run efforts during this stretch, but he also has a pair of complete games and another eight-inning shutout in that timeframe. Though he does not have the strikeout stuff to be a frontline DFS ace, the soon-to-be 28-year-old is live for a quality start every time he takes the mound.
Over the last 30 days, Washington has averaged 3.78 runs per game and a subpar 93 wRC+ along the way. The projected lineup is a dumpster fire after CJ Abrams, Lane Thomas, Joey Meneses and Keibert Ruiz. This is not a particularly sexy recommendation, but Alcantara is the best building block on the featured slate.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: LHP Tarik Skubal at Chicago White Sox — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $9,100 | Yahoo $40
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes this matchup for LHP Tarik Skubal, and he rates out favorably from a fantasy-point-per-dollar perspective. Over his last five starts, he has tallied 28.2 innings, 32 strikeouts and just three home runs allowed, resulting in a 3.45 ERA and a 1.114 WHIP.
Chicago has been mediocre over the last 30 days, and today’s projected lineup looks like it has more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese. Once upon a time, Tim Anderson was a noted lefty-masher, but that looks like it was a mirage, as the White Sox leadoff hitter has an inexcusable .104 ISO in his last 172 plate appearances against southpaws. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez are still elite options that could hurt Skubal, but the back of the lineup presents three-up, three-down potential, with rookies Oscar Colas, Lenyn Sosa and Korey Lee all looking lost at the plate.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Seth Lugo vs. San Francisco Giants — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $9,600 | Yahoo $42
For the late-afternoon slate, the decision at pitcher is a tricky one. Ultimately, RHP Seth Lugo gets the nod over RHP Zac Gallen as the best option. Gallen should still be part of our plans, as the 28-year-old is quietly among the top 3 potential National League Cy Young candidates per OddsShopper.com. The tougher matchup against the Orioles and his higher salary have him a tad behind Lugo.
In his first season away from the Mets, Lugo has been a strong contributor for the Padres. Over his last four starts, he has a 1.57 ERA, 3.17 FIP and a .233 batting average against. During this stretch he has ceded only two home runs and issued just five walks. Opposite-handed power is his main weakness, but if he can navigate the likes of Joc Pederson and Mike Yastrzemski, he should be able to flirt with a quality start and a handful of strikeouts. Though that does not seem like much, it should be enough to secure a top-3 fantasy point effort among the late-slate pitchers.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Boston Red Sox at RHP Zack Greinke — 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
It is going to be a warm one in Kansas City, with game-time temperatures in the low-90s and a 9 to 12 mph breeze out to right field. It looks like RHP Taylor Clarke will be inserted as an opener in front of venerable veteran RHP Zack Greinke. After Greinke was effective last season, the Royals brought him back for one last hurrah. Sadly, things have not been going well for the 39-year-old, who is having the worst season of an otherwise glorious career. Back in 2009, aka the dark days before DFS, Greinke won the American League Cy Young Award while leading the league in ERA, WHIP and FIP. Across his 20 seasons, he has a 3.49 ERA, five All-Star appearances, six Gold Glove Awards and even a Silver Slugger earned in his final season in the National League.
Accolades aside, Greinke is going to try to get by with guile, smoke and mirrors, which just is not a good mix against the likes of Rafael Devers, Tristan Casas, Adam Duvall and Alex Verdugo, who are the core four stacking targets. Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida can be employed for full five-man stacks. There is always a chance that Greinke could stymie the Red Sox offense, but that is not a likely outcome.
Mid-Afternoon Slate Target: Detroit Tigers at RHP Michael Kopech — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
The Tigers have won three consecutive games, which is something they have only done four times this year. They also have a chance to take the weekend series against the White Sox, AND they are even favored in this matchup. RHP Michael Kopech was once a heralded prospect who was a first-round selection in the 2014 MLB Draft as a high schooler. Sadly, the bloom is off that rose, and over his last dozen games, Kopech has been an unmitigated disaster, with a 6.62 ERA, 8.11 FIP, 51 walks and only 42 strikeouts in 50.1 innings. That is not a typo — he is issuing one free pass per inning.
Spencer Torkelson is finally looking like he was worthy of being the first overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft, and rookie Andre Lipcius hit his first career home run in his first big league start last night. Sadly, Riley Greene (elbow) is on the injured list, but we can still consider Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows and Akil Baddoo as above-average options in this matchup. Aside from Torkelson and Carpenter, the rest of the options are all available at favorable salaries. We can consider this group as a viable lead stack on the main and afternoon slates. Break one off for the Motor City Kitties!
Late Slate Target: Tampa Bay Rays vs. RHP Xzavion Curry — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Perhaps the beginning of a new month will help RHP Xzavion Curry reset and regroup. August was a rough stretch for the 25-year-old, as he was smacked for 17 runs in his 21.2 innings, resulting in a 7.06 ERA and a .322 batting average against. The 3.72 FIP during this timeframe does indicate he had some bad luck, but it is no excuse for the rookie being chased from his last two starts prior to the third inning.
It is a small sample size, but across 182 same-handed matchups, Curry has ceded a .238 ISO while striking out a low 13.7%. Yandy Diaz (.396 wOBA, .171 ISO, 393 plate appearances), Randy Arozarena (.372 wOBA, .164 ISO, 444 PAs) and Isaac Paredes (.381 wOBA, .272 ISO, 360 PAs) have all been outstanding against fellow righties this season. Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe (no relation) and Luke Raley can be employed to fill in the gaps for maximum synergy when creating full stacks.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
This afternoon Yandy Diaz is a strong DFS option and also someone to consider in the sports wagering market for his home run prop. Currently, Diaz has a +420 payout if he can park one in the stands. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the +373 expectation of this outcome indicates this line is inefficient by nearly 10% in our favor. That is like getting a booster from the sportsbook without having to do any of the legwork.
While home runs are not really part of Diaz’s game, he does have 12 of his 18 on the season against right-handed pitching, and he got one yesterday. Opposing pitcher RHP Xzavion Curry struggles against same-handed hitters, so this looks like a good spot to drop a few shekels for entertainment purposes.
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Final Thoughts for Sunday, September 3 | MLB DFS Picks
Sunday looks like another pleasant day for baseball. There are no major weather concerns, though it is always good to doublecheck closer to first pitch to verify that nothing substantial has materialized in the forecast.
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