Today is a good pick’em value day for Sleeper MLB, with a couple of good spots in the midafternoon. Keep in mind when making Sleeper entries today that games are starting all across the schedule — that said, the picks below all start at 3:10 p.m. ET or later. If you are new to Sleeper, you can use the Sleeper Fantasy promo code ‘STOKASTIC’ when you sign up to get a deposit match up to $100! Now let’s dive into some plays for Sleeper’s MLB pick’em contest.
MLB Sleeper Pick’em Predictions | Sept. 3
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Zac Gallen O/U 5.5 Strikeouts
Gallen is not on the short list of NL Cy Young contenders because of elite strikeout numbers, but he offers enough to believe that 5.5 is too low a number for him. His per-nine rate of 9.5 strikeouts is in the top 20 of baseball among qualified starters, as is his 26.2% strikeout rate. Plus, Gallen is the picture of consistency, as he ranks fourth in MLB in innings and has made it through six innings in 21 of 28 starts this year (75%). His per-nine average paces him to get his sixth strikeout in the sixth, so this line is right on track with his typical outing.
The Orioles strike out below league average — but just barely, as they are now at 22.0% compared to the MLB mean of 22.7%. Gallen also strikes out lefties at a slightly higher rate this year than he does righties, and Baltimore projects to have six lefties in the starting lineup. The main thing here is that Gallen has struck out six or more in 17 of 28 starts (60.7%), and the Orioles are not so elite at preventing whiffs that they should downgrade his projections that much. Stokastic has him at 6.5 strikeouts this afternoon.
Best MLB Sleeper Play: Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1.96x)
Whit Merrifield O/U 1.5 Total Bases
There are several spots one could go with the Blue Jays since they are on the road in Coors Field against a gettable starter in Chase Anderson, but Merrifield is the one popping in Stokastic’s projections right now. He may not be the power threat that other Blue Jays are, but he does lead the projected lineup in batting average and has three multi-base games in his last four. Merrifield also does not give up much in righty-righty matchups, as his batting average and slugging only dip a handful of points.
Now, since joining the Rockies, Anderson has been easy pickings for all hitters, posting a 1.563 WHIP and allowing an average over .300 and a slugging of .550. And that gets no better in same-handed matchups. Merrifield will be near the top of the order, so he will get at least two cracks against Anderson barring something out of the ordinary. A multi-hit game is well within the realm of possibility, but Merrifield is also live for an extra-base hit given the batter-friendly environment.
Stokastic projects him for 2.4 total bases, giving the over on 1.5 a 53% expected win rate.
Best MLB Sleeper Play: Whit Merrifield Over 1.5 Total Bases (1.69x)
All together, this two-pick entry comes with a 3.29x payout.
