Saturday has early baseball, doubleheaders, matchups in Mexico City and Coors Field, plus Mother Nature will be visiting various venues. The action starts at 12:10 p.m. ET and culminates in a 5-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Corbin Burnes in a home matchup against the Angels. It also looks like we should ride with the Texas Rangers once again as they take on inexperienced RHP Jhony Brito of the Yankees.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes vs. Los Angeles Angels — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,500 | FanDuel $10,300 | Yahoo $43
While it is never fun tangling with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, RHP Corbin Burnes is borderline matchup-proof and his bona fides the 2021 National League Cy Young Award. Though his strikeouts are down through five appearances this season, since becoming a full-time starter, he has averaged 11.3 per nine innings.
We can also consider LHP Clayton Kershaw who will be going against a right-handed heavy St. Louis lineup in Dodger Stadium. The veteran of 16 MLB campaigns is still highly effective with a strikeout per inning and with the powerful offense behind him, he is always in the mix for a win.
LHP Reid Detmers rounds things out on the featured slate and for those of you streaming SPs in season long leagues, go scoop him up this morning before your league mates beat you to it. Since the beginning of last year, the current collection of Brew Crew batsmen have a 27.2% strikeout rate against southpaws, which is by far the highest in the land.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Greene at Oakland Athletics — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $42
The Oakland offense treated us well last night against RHP Luis Cessa, but after that brief respite – we are back to picking on them for both games this weekend. The Reds are rolling out a righty/lefty combination of strikeout artists with RHP Hunter Greene today and LHP Nick Lodolo tomorrow.
Last year Greene allowed his fair share of longballs when challenging opposing hitters, however, he also brings a wicked fastball that helped him notch nearly a dozen strikeouts per nine innings. The A’s projected lineup has a 25.3% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers over the last season and change and while they do have some pop, this collection of journeymen and marginal prospects is one have and will continue to pick on all season.
RHP Spencer Strider is also in play, but only if the weather cooperates in the Big Apple. Be sure to understand the scoring system on your DFS site of choice, because those who rolled with RLHP Max Fried yesterday got bonus points for a shutout and a complete game, even though it was called after five innings.
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Early Slate Pitching Target: LHP Rich Hill at Washington Nationals — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $5,800 | FanDuel $8,000 | Yahoo n/a
The Pirates and Nationals were rained out on Friday, so they are playing a doubleheader today. This recommendation is for DraftKings only as it is based on salary and matchup. LHP Rich Hill is still getting by with a variety of breaking balls in his age-43 season. He mostly relies on his curveball – which he can present from a variety of arm slots and release points – along with a slider. These pitches are a rarity for today’s hitters as they tend to be in the upper-60s and lower-70s, which in turn helps out Hill’s mid-80s fastball catch batters off guard. If he can coax enough weak contact, he should be able to flirt with a quality start this afternoon.
RHP Dean Kremer and LHP Eduardo Rodriguez are squaring off in Detroit in the first game of a doubleheader. Both are in play on DraftKings as SPs. On FanDuel they enter the mix around lineup eight or nine, but RHP Bailey Ober is a better alternative against the Kansas City Royals.
Ober is likely to be called up to start today and he is not in the DraftKings player pool. Though Ober began the season in the minors, we saw him get a spot start last Sunday against the Nationals where he was effective allowing one run across 5.1 innings with four strikeouts.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Texas Rangers vs. RHP Jhonny Brito — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
In his last three starts, RHP Jhonny Brito has cleared the third inning only once. Across these 7.2 innings, he has seven walks, four strikeouts and a 12.91 ERA. For those Yankees fans searching for a silver lining, at least he has allowed just one round-tripper this season.
Look to the power trio of Marcus Semien, Nate Lowe and Adolis Garcia as the foundation of any Texas stack. Josh Jung returned to action and he has above average pop and switch-hitting catcher Jonah Heim does as well and he also takes care of the pesky backstop requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo. Regression is coming at some point for this offense, however, it is unlikely to happen tonight.
There is also a Coors Field Extravaganza with a projected run total that is cresting toward 13 and we should absolutely pepper our lineups with players in this matchup. Look to the Colorado hitters swinging the stick from the right-side of the plate against LHP Tommy Henry who produces Coors Field results, regardless of where he plies his trade.
For the Diamondbacks, look to the lefties first against RHP Noah Davis who has no redeeming pitches and is barely among the top 50 prospects in the Colorado organization. He turned 26 last Saturday and the next few starts are likely his only shot at sticking in The Show before being released or designated for assignment.
Mexico City Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres — 14.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:05 p.m. ET
All we need to know is that this game is being played in Mexico City at Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium. While this venue has similar dimensions to Coors Field, it also is at another 2,000 feet of elevation. This CBSSports article does a nice job of breaking everything down that we need to know about this game. For those that fall into the TLDR category, play ever hitter in what is projecting to be a batting practice environment, despite LHP Sean Manaea and RHP Joe Musgrove being top of the rotation starters.
Early Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Chris Flexen — 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
It has been a fun ride for RHP Chris Flexen who washed out of the Mets organization, spent 2020 pitching in the KBO and getting a chance from the pitching starved Seattle Mariners in 2021 after he reinvented himself. Flexen survived the last two seasons on a variety of junk pitches looking for hitters to just not quite get good contact on his marginal stuff. That helped him avoid too many home runs, which was what got him washed out of the league the first time.
Unfortunately, it seems that the clock is striking midnight on this Cinderella story and the 28-year-old has seen his home run rate nearly double through five starts this season as compared to the prior two. Yes, it is still a small sample size, but the margin for error is so small here, that we can also infer that the league knows what to expect and are just sitting on their preferred pitch in the zone.
DraftKings has done a good job with boosting the salaries for the key Toronto hitters and even the FanDuel salary algorithm has taken action in a rare moment of competence. This is likely going to funnel gamers towards the Pirates bats in a delightful matchup against LHP Patrick Corbin. That in turn means George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman are probably going to be underrepresented in tournaments.
For those on a budget or looking for differentiation, Brandon Belt, Danny Jansen and Kevin Kiermaier will provide just that from the bottom of the order. Yes, Belt has been struggling this season, but he is too good of a hitter to give up on this quickly.
Final Thoughts for Saturday, April 29 | MLB DFS Picks
There are several weather concerns today in the Midwest and Atlantic regions. Games in Chicago, Detroit (Game 2) and Minnesota could see some delays. Boston and New York will definitely have rain, however, as we saw last night – the Mets may be willing to roll the dice and play anyway.
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