Summer sun has been accounted for in the MLB schedules and we are back to Saturday night baseball with a giant 13-game featured slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, look to RHP Aaron Nola as a tonight, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves bats are a fine Coors Field counter-strategy.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Aaron Nola at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $9,900 | Yahoo $51
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool is going right back to the Philadelphia starter after RHP Zack Wheeler racked up 11 strikeouts while allowing just one run across 6.2 innings. Tonight it will be veteran and fellow righty Aaron Nola looking to see if he can match the masterpiece authored by Wheeler on Friday night.
Nola has had some rough stretches in his age-30 season and his 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings is the lowest ratio since his rookie season back in 2015. There is some positive news though as his 4.25 ERA is semi-inflated by bad luck as evidenced by his 3.68 xERA and 3.76 xFIP. The Pirates are running out a very inexperienced lineup with rookies Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Jared Triolo and Nick Gonzales now everyday starters. This quartet has combined for 213 plate appearances in The Show against right-handed pitchers. Expect to see opposing pitchers recommended against this youth movement more often than not down the stretch.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Logan Allen at Chicago White Sox — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $9,100 | Yahoo $39
The preferred option would be RHPÂ Bailey Ober in Kansas City against the Royals, however, the weather is uncertain so we can look to LHPÂ Logan Allen as an alternative option.
The 24-year-old faced the Royals in Cleveland on Monday, with mediocre results, allowing four earned runs and a pair of round-trippers, while logging five strikeouts in seven innings. The rookie is the third best prospect in the Guardians’ farm system and he is a top-75 prospect on most industry lists.
Allen has an intriguing changeup and he is one of four pitchers who have less than 1,000 rpm on the pitch. This means that the seams are not spinning as fast, which in turn allows for odd movement from the pitch, particularly outdoors. This would be similar to a knuckleball in that the flight trajectory of the ball is “unstable” with the lower spin rate keeping the ball from “boring” into a groove as it heads towards the batter.
Changeups are intended to appear similar to a fastball upon release, but then they “drop” down in the batter’s zone because gravity has a little more time to influence the slower pitch. Allen’s changeup not only drops, but it then has more side-to-side movement, which is something rarely seen by big league hitters.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Brandon Pfaadt vs. Seattle Mariners — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,200 | FanDuel $6,200 | Yahoo $26
The salary is intriguing for rookie RHPÂ Brandon Pfaadt and while the highly touted youngster has disappointed in The Show with an 8.81 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 12 home runs allowed in 31.2 innings, pickings are slim on the late-slate. The 24-year-old is a top-5 prospect for the Diamondbacks, who are in the thick of the playoff race and he is just inside the top-25 of most league-wide lists.
Brandon fought (that is the easiest way to remember how to pronounce his name) was sent back to the minors earlier this month to work on his mound positioning, moving from the far third base side of the rubber to the first base side in the hopes it makes his 94-mph fastball less of a meatball crossing the plate and more like that of early-career LHP Madison Bumgarner. There are a couple articles out there that break this down in more detail, but essentially he moved almost a full foot to his left, compared to pre-mechanical adjustment mound positioning.
In his return to The Show last Saturday, he served up a trio of taters to the Reds in Great American Ballpark, so this is going to be one of those “play both sides” matchups. The goal is to get 4-to-5 innings, with only a couple of earned runs and half a dozen strikeouts. Do not be afraid to take a Seattle bat or two against Pfaadt on the same roster.
For those not feeling frisky, RHPÂ Yu Darvish is at home against the Rangers and rookie RHPÂ Bryan Woo is facing the D’backs, though those matchups are far from easy.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets vs. LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
This season LHPÂ Patrick Corbin has been merely horrible instead of absolutely awful. That is saying something when his 5.01 ERA and 1.55 WHIP are semi-palatable, though the recent home run binge portends of disaster ahead. In his 62 starts during the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Corbin allowed a 6.05 ERA, with a 5.14 FIP and a jaw-dropping 64 home runs across 324.1 innings. This year the strikeouts are down, but so are the walks – however, pitching to contact is not a sustainable strategy. Hang in there Nats fans, there is just one more season and $35 million left on this albatross of a contract.
Though we do not want to hang our hats on BvP, the projected lineup for the Mets has a .305/.380/.450 triple slash line against Corbin with six home runs and 12 overall extra-base hits in 169 at bats. Pete Alonso leads the way and he is 14-for-40 (.350/.469/.775) with five home runs and nine walks against Corbin. Jeff McNeil also has had sustained success with 10 hits in 32 at bats, though he has only one double in this lefty-lefty matchup.
Focus on the righties with power, which means Mark Canha, rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez who already has 19 home runs this season and Tommy Pham. Finally, switch-hitter Francisco Lindor is always an option and he does his best work from the right-side of the plate, with a .363 wOBA and .264 ISO.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Julio Teheran — 6.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
It has been absolutely stunning that the reclamation project that is RHP Julio Teheran has been as successful as it has been. Despite washing out of the league with an 8.92 ERA, 8.31 FIP and 13 home runs against only 23 strikeouts in 36.1 combined innings for the Angels and Tigers, Teheran is back in a rotation.
Teheran was a mostly solid contributor in his nine season with Atlanta, but Father Time is of course still undefeated. The only change since we last saw the 32-year-old in The Show is the addition of a cutter. Well, that is not all, he changed his release point and stance on the mound, shortening his windup, while also tweaking his curveball. Hitters will catch up to this deception as they have more video to study and we have already seen this begin to happen. Yes, he did hold Atlanta to one run across six innings in his last start on Sunday, but in the three games prior to that he allowed 17 earned runs in 20.1 innings, with just a dozen strikeouts.
DraftKings and Yahoo have done a good job boosting the baseline salaries for Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Ozzie Albies, but with a little creativity we can stack this fearsome foursome. Atlanta will be underrepresented in tournaments tonight with the poor pricing for players in the Coors Field Extravaganza, which makes this stack the perfect countermeasure against The Masses.
The back of the lineup is also strong, which is no surprise considering this is a veritable All-Star team and Marcell Ozuna, Eddie Rosario Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II are the components for a solid secondary stack.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Luke Weaver — 6.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool has been looking forward to this matchup for the Dodgers against RHP Luke Weaver. There is bad, horrible, gawdawful and whatever the hell Weaver is producing this season. The soon-to-be 30-year-old baseball nomad has made 17 starts this season, while allowing four or more earned runs 11 times. This has resulted in a 7.20 ERA, 5.99 FIP, and a 5.98 xERA. Oh and he is allowing 5.4 extra-base hits per nine innings, with a career worst 2.25 home runs.
Literally anyone in a Dodgers uniform is playable. Heck, even the back-half of the lineup with outfielders David Peralta, Jayson Heyward and James Outman, along with recently acquired Amed Rosario would be an appealing stack. Happy Luke Weaver Day!
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Okay, so wunderkind Elly De La Cruz may not be impervious to big league pitching, but we have already seen him start to make adjustments to the recent pitching strategy adjustments made by the league.
Looking to the rookie in the sports wagering market with his +680 odds to hit a home run, is an intriguing wager. When using the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see that his “true odds” should be closer to +595, and though that is still a long-shot outcome, we are getting nearly a 12% boost in expected value due to the inefficient line.
It is going to be a warm one in Los Angeles and while Dodgers Stadium is not exactly a home run paradise, the temperatures will still be in the mid-80s for most of this game with the 6:10 p.m. local start time. There is also a 7-to-12 mph breeze out to right-center, which is an added bonus in this matchup against the inexperienced rookie RHPÂ Emmet Sheehan.
Did you know that you can get one free month of Stokastic+ Platinum for signing up and making your first bet at BetMGM? Claim here today!
Final Thoughts for Saturday, July 29 | MLB DFS Picks
Once again there are several spots to monitor for the Saturday night action, but with 26 teams in action, we have plenty of pivots. Baltimore, New York and Pittsburgh are once again the East Coast focus, though the game in the Big Apple is really the one to watch as there is around a 10% chance of a postponement based on the early forecast. In the Midwest, Kansas City is the trouble-spot with outcomes ranging from things being a non-issue all the way up to severe weather warnings and a postponement. Be sure to check in with your favorite DFS weather sources closer to first pitch.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Strategy Show, at 11:00 0.m. ET, brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. New users sign up through this link and receive a first deposit match up to $100. Full details here.
