Saturday brings three waves of tournaments, with the first two launching at 1:05 p.m. ET and then 4:05 p.m. ET before the sites coalesce around a four-game 7:15 p.m. ET docket on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Logan Gilbert as the early-slate ace, with Tyler Glasnow leading the way for the evening action. The Dodgers, Brewers and, of course, the Coors Field Extravaganza will provide plenty of stacking options tonight, while the Phillies are popping for the afternoon affair.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 22
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD vs. LAA)
Dodgers vs. Angels – 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$11,800 at DraftKings
$11,500 at FanDuel
$61 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool approves of the DFS sites giving RHP Tyler Glasnow the Cy Young treatment with salaries. Yahoo has the 30-year-old cracking the $60 barrier, and you know the DraftKings salary algorithm is serious when it goes higher than FanDuel on a pitcher. Glasnow is currently battling Ranger Suarez and Zack Wheeler for the National League Cy Young award.
In a fun fact moment that should have you thinking “Hey, that can’t be right!” — Glasnow’s 93 innings this year are the third-most he has compiled in a single season. In 2023, he had a personal-best 120, topping his 2018 season when he had 111.2, which is wild. This is his ninth MLB campaign, and yet the ace has a total of 622.2 innings in The Show, or about three seasons worth for a frontline starter.
Glasnow currently leads the National League with 12.1 strikeouts and 5.8 hits per nine innings. He does have a league-high 11 wild pitches, but if wild pitches and lack of overall season-long health are the worst things to consider about Glasnow, we should be rostering him full steam ahead tonight.
Brandon Drury is back, but Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are still out for the Angels. That means Taylor Ward, Willie Calhoun, Luis Rengifo and Logan O’Hoppe will be trying to hold the offense together. This motley crew would be hard-pressed to be considered a top-four bat on half the teams in the league, which clearly is validated by their implied team total threatening to slide below three in this matchup.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA at MIA)
Mariners at Marlins – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$9,200 at DraftKings
$10,600 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
This has been an excellent season for RHP Logan Gilbert, who is getting some Cy Young buzz, despite still searching for his first All-Star appearances. The 27-year-old leads the American League with a stellar 0.915 WHIP, along with his typically sublime run prevention 2.93 ERA, 3.35 FIP, while also recording nearly a strikeout per inning.
Friday night, Miami snuck away with a win in the 10th inning, besting Seattle 3-2. The Marlins still have the second-fewest runs and total bases in the league. The team does a reasonable job of limiting strikeouts, but they are tied for last with 61 home runs and are above only the Chicago White Sox for total bases. Jazz Chisholm is the best bat, followed by Bryan De La Cruz and switch-hitter Joey Bell, who had back-to-back home runs last night, in a rare moment of concentrated power.
The projected lineup for Miami has a collective .140 ISO and a 22.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last season. Gilbert is tied atop the leaderboard, with a dozen quality starts this year and with a little luck, he could move ahead of the back this afternoon.
Early Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bailey Ober (MIN at OAK)
Twins at Athletics – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
This has been a mercurial season for RHP Bailey Ober, who has seen results all over the board. Three of his 14 starts have resulted in him allowing at least five earned runs, including two that saw him cede a trio of taters. His efficiency has also been lacking, which has cost him outs, and only once in his last six games has he gone beyond the fifth inning.
Ober’s last start, which came against the Athletics, saw him go past the fifth inning for the first time all year. He struck out eight with six hits, two walks and one earned run, a solo shot by Daz Cameron. Luck has also not been on Ober’s side as his underlying metrics are similar to last year, which was good enough for a 3.43 ERA, nearly an earned run and a half better than what he has contributed to the Twins this season.
Oakland has some power, with the sixth-most home runs in the league, but the team rarely connects with ducks on the pond, leading to the third-fewest runs in the league. The team also has the second most strikeouts in the league, trailing only the K-happy Mariners in that category. The .223/.295/.368 triple-slash line is nothing to fear either, so feel free to roll the dice with Ober this afternoon.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Wild Card Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Angels – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Zach Plesac
DK Top Stack %: 16.8%
FD Top Stack %: 16.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool loves this four-game featured slate since it is loaded with stacking options. Of course, we have the Coors Field Extravaganza, the Yankees hosting venerable veteran RHP Charlie Morton and the Brewers in San Diego against RHP Randy Vasquez, who is about as effective on the mound as Randy of the Redwoods.
Also in play is RHP Zach Plesac who has no “K” in his name or his game. The pitching-desperate Angels were forced to call upon the 29-year-old to fill out their rotation. Over the last two seasons, Plesac has just 27.1 innings in The Show, with a scant 4.94 strikeouts per nine innings and a whopping 21 “Ernies” and five round-trippers. His production in the minors was not much better with 6.6 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine innings, with 34 dingers in 169.1 innings.
Last night the Dodgers lost 3-2 in extra innings, with two runs being the lowest output for the team in the last eight games. This is a get-right spot for them with the usual suspects in play. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman lead the way, with rookie Andy Pages getting a bump in the order with Mookie Betts on the injured list. Catcher Will Smith should be in the mix as well, making him a fine option on DraftKings and Yahoo, where a backstop is required per the rules.
Veteran Jason Heyward is on a tear, with a .417 wOBA and .264 ISO in his last 65 lefty/righty matchups, with Teoscar Hernandez posting nearly identical numbers with a .407 wOBA and .260 ISO in the same timeframe in his 82 plate appearances against same-handed hurlers. The back of the order is far from sexy, but discounts are available with infielders Cavan Biggio, Gavin Lux and Miguel Rojas.
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Early Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks – 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Tommy Henry
DK Top Stack %: 11.8%
FD Top Stack %: 11.9%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool loves the forecast in Philadelphia, with game-time temperatures around 90 degrees and a 10-to-15 mph breeze out to center field. On the bump for the Diamondbacks is LHP Tommy Henry, who has close to a 30% fly ball rate across his last 545 batters faced, with 1.82 home runs per nine innings allowed this season. Giggity!
Just as J.T. Realmuto ended up on the injured reserve, Trea Turner (hamstring) was activated after a six-week absence. Turner has hits in all three games since returning, with two multi-hit games, plus a two-run homer last night. The 30-year-old, along with fellow righties, Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm all profile well against Henry’s pitch mix.
Even though Philadelphia lost last night, Bryce Harper won the internet. Henry has struggled in lefty-lefty matchups, and Harper, along with Kyle Schwarber, have tremendous upside potential with their extra-base hit abilities in this matchup. Utility man Edmundo Sosa is having a strong season, with a .465 wOBA and .367 ISO in 56 plate appearances against southpaws. Finally, Whit Merrifield and Cristian Pache can be sprinkled across stacks for discounted differentiation.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
This is a good time to pick on RHP Jameson Taillon in the sports wagering world for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop, which is currently available on Unibet and Bet Rivers at +108.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -102 “true odds,” so the +108 odds bring a terrific 4.9% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This is evident with “sharp” book Pinnacle all the way down at a punitive -128, which works out to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Today, Taillon is projected for 4.2 strikeouts, which is below the five needed for the under on this wager to fail. We can see by the 50% expected win rate for this under, that getting this at even odds or better is key, and per OddsShopper‘s calculations, that needs to be at least -102. The projected lineup for the Mets has a 22.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, with Taillon cobbling together a shaky 16.4% combined strikeout rate. This is down from Taillon’s 19.9% strikeout rate last season, representing a career-low. It is going to be in the mid-80s with a 12-to-15 mph breeze out to centerfield in Wrigley, which bodes well for the New York batsmen.
Taillon has three, five and six strikeouts in his last three starts and on the season he has five or more whiffs in three of 11 (27.2%) appearances, but it is important to note that four of those outings had him recording four strikeouts.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Saturday, June 22
Heat and humidity rule the day with some terrific hitting weather across the Midwest and East Coast games. There are minor precipitation risks, but they do not even warrant calling out the cities. Though as always, be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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