Saturday MLB does battle with primetime CFB in the form of an elite 11-game featured slate with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, LHP Blake Snell is a strong pitching selection and Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox look like a strong alternative to the Coors Field Extravaganza.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Blake Snell vs. San Francisco Giants — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,300 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $54
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool is once again recommending that we buckle up for another rollercoaster ride with LHP Blake Snell. After posting a combined sub-1.00 ERA through June and July, the 30-year-old southpaw “struggled” in his five August starts with a 3.00 ERA. Of course that was against a gauntlet of top-tier offenses, so we should have zero concerns with his current form.
The splendiferous southpaw currently leads the league with a 2.60 ERA, while ranking third with his 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings rate. San Francisco will be running out a righty-laden lineup and though the projected collection of batsmen has a stellar .187 ISO against lefties over the last season-plus, it is accompanied by a 23.9% strikeout rate. Even with the Coors Field Extravaganza eating up the salary cap, gamers will want to find a way to have Snell in their “main” lineups tonight.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown vs. New York Yankees — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $9,600 | Yahoo $35
The Yankees caught lightening in a bottle last night, knocking four home runs off of RHP Justin Verlander in a 6-2 road victory in Houston. DFS gamers should not let that dissuade them from going right back to the well with RHP Hunter Brown. The rookie is adding to his career high workload (153.1 innings) every time he takes the mound and over his last 10 games he has struggled his way to a 6.07 ERA and a .318 batting average against, while ceding nine round-trippers. The silver lining is a 4.46 FIP which indicates he has been rather unlucky and his supporters can take solace in his 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings during this timeframe.
New York is likely to be starting four rookies tonight and that inexperience at the plate can result in elevated strikeouts. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres all have power-upside in same-handed matchups, but that comes with a 25% strikeout rate as the cost of doing business. Shout out to D.J. LeMahieu who is locked in at the plate with six of his 14 longballs coming in the last 10 games. The two-time batting champion is still carrying a career-worst .243 batting average and his 22.7% strikeout rate is nearly double the 13.0% of the three preceding seasons.
Depending on how popular Brown ends up being in the large-field tournaments, it is probably worth having a roster or two with the New York power bats as the direct leverage against the Brown lineups will be the key to the slate if he melts down tonight.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP David Peterson vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,300 | FanDuel $6,200 | Yahoo $28
Tomorrow is LHPÂ David Peterson’s 28th birthday, so hopefully he celebrates with a strong fantasy outing against the Mariners tonight. The southpaw has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation, as well as spending time with the New York Triple-A club. He should be a mainstay in the rotation down the stretch with the #LOLMets jettisoning their frontline aces at the trade deadline. Inefficiency is the main knock against Peterson and while he has averaged 96 pitches per outing in his last three appearances, he has logged only 15.1 innings.
There is no need to roster the middling-lefty on FanDuel as he is highly unlikely to earn a quality start and those bonus points are crucial on the blue site. Instead gamers can employ him as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo, while using the freed up salary cap to upgrade bats. The Mariners have capable hitters, but their core of Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez each have a 31% or higher strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Caveat Emptor.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox at RHP Alec Marsh — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
After being embarrassed last night in a 13-2 drubbing, hopefully the Boston bats will be on point tonight. It is going to be in the upper-80s for most of the game tonight, with a 7-to-10 mph breeze out to right field. This should give a nice boost to the offense, in a highly desirable matchup against RHP Alec Marsh. The 25-year-old is one of the top prospects in the Kansas City farm system, though he does not even come close to sniffing a spot on the league-wide prospect sheets. He has allowed back-to-back two-home run games and that is in play again tonight, particularly if his fastball stays below 95 mph.
Rafael Devers, Adam Duvall, Triston Casas and leadoff man Alex Verdugo all profile well against Marsh’s pitching repertoire. The salaries for this quartet compare favorably to the bats in the Coors Field Extravaganza, which makes the BoSox a strong tournament stack that could easily keep pace with the Blue Jays and Rockies.
Main Slate Primary Target: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Scrubs — 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Currently the listed starting pitcher for the Pirates is RHP Thomas Hatch, who is currently celebrating his 29th trip around the sun. He was drafted in the third round of the 2017 MLB Draft after two seasons at Oklahoma State. Since then he has been with three different organizations, including Toronto and Pittsburgh this year. Tonight he will likely pitch for an inning or two, before giving way to another nondescript Bucs hurler. It would not be a surprise to see LHP Bailey Falter end up as the starter or the “bulk” option tonight as he last pitched on Sunday. If he finds his way onto the mound tonight, it will provide a dramatic boost to the right-handed Redbirds.
Despite being on pace for the fewest wins in the last 30 years, the St. Louis struggles should not be pinned on the offense. The Cardinals are in the middle of the pack averaging 4.46 runs per game and they have the eighth most home runs in the league this season. Crappy pitching and a variety of injuries to several key hitters have derailed the playoff hopes of this proud franchise.
If we get word that Falter is going to be involved tonight, we may not see Lars Nootbaar or Nolan Gorman in the starting lineup. There are still plenty of Cards to play with Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tyler O’Neill and catcher Willson Contreras comprising the shortlist. Depending on where he is in the lineup, Tommy Edman is also a bat to target if the switch-hitter is towards the top of the order.
Main Slate Wild Card Target: Houston Astros vs. RHP Luis Severino — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
It will be interesting to see which version of RHPÂ Luis Severino is on the mound tonight. The one that has allowed seven or more earned runs four times in his last 15 starts or the one that is working on a 13.2 inning scoreless streak. For full transparency, the last two teams that the 29-year-old enigmatic hurler has face have been the Nationals and the Tigers. The Houston offense is a full standard deviation better than those hapless clubs, so it makes sense to trust the Astros tonight.
Power has been the main issue for Severino this season and he has been hammered by both righties (.216 ISO, 196 PAs) and lefties (.287 ISO, 382 PAs). Look to the usual suspects tonight with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman as the core four stacking ingredients. Chas McCormick is an interesting discount dandy and while we really do not need to ride with Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley in DFS, they are the icing on the cake for this loaded real world lineup.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
RHP Zack Littell is someone to consider in the sports wagering market, with his over/under of 15.5 outs. Currently Little has +100 to close out the fifth inning and then watch the rest of the game from the dugout. Looking at the True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see the -103 expectation of this outcome gives a slight tick of expected ROI in our favor.
In each of his last five starts, the 27-year-old righty has at least 16 outs. However, it is important to note that he has been incredibly efficient with his pitch counts of 92, 80, 79, 73 and 74 in reverse chronological order. He does not issue many walks, with only three free passes in these 29 combined innings. Additionally, he does not get many strikeouts either, with just 21 during this timeframe. That means most of his offerings are put in play, which can be disastrous for a pitcher with fly ball tendencies.
The Tampa Bay bullpen is well rested with only Jalen Beeks seeing action over the last 48 hours. That means the tinkering ways of manager Kevin Cash will have a full complement of fresh arms to choose from if Littell shows even the slightest sign of struggling tonight.
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Final Thoughts for Saturday, September 2 | MLB DFS Picks
Saturday once again brings good weather and minimal precipitation risk across the various MLB venues hosting action.
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