Saturday brings staggered MLB action with a trio of featured-slates, culminating in a four-gamer with a 7:15 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups for today, including the San Diego Padres in a great matchup against enigmatic LHPÂ David Peterson.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. Seattle Mariners — 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $52
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Framber Valdez grading out as the best all-around fantasy pitcher for the four-game featured slate. There are several options, though with RHP Spencer Strider facing juggernaut Tampa Bay offense and rollercoaster LHP Blake Snell against the New York Mets endless sea of right-handed hitters, Valdez bubbles to the top.
It has been 10 days since Valdez took the mound as he was pushed back in the rotation after experiencing soreness in his right ankle. Considering how close we are to the All-Star break, it makes sense to treat him as if he is at full health since Houston easily could have given him another seven days off.
Though Valdez has seen his groundball rate drop do 57.7% this season, down from 66% over the last three years, he has a wicked 26.3% strikeout rate. Fantasy gamers will happily take this tradeoff every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Seattle does set up well against southpaws, though they are buoyed by platoon-specialists A.J. Pollock, Dylan Moore and catcher Tom Murphy who are all well beyond their pedestrian primes.
Tonight Valdez should be in line for six or seven mostly clean innings and an equal number of strikeouts. Plus he has a good chance at recording his 13th quality start in 17 outings, which makes him that much more valuable on FanDuel where they reward that milestone.
Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: LHP James Paxton vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,600 | Yahoo $46
This afternoon LHPÂ James Paxton is returning from the paternity list to take on the Oakland Athletics in Boston. The Big Maple has had a couple extra days since his last start, when he blanked the Blue Jays in Toronto across 7.2 innings with a solid seven strikeouts. Despite debuting with the Mariners all the way back in 2013, tonight will be only the 147th start in The Show for the Canadian and only his 16th in the last four seasons.
This year the A’s have had the second worst scoring efficiency against southpaws with a top-10 strikeout rate. Look to the oft-injured lefty in all formats this afternoon as a strong fantasy building block.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. Chicago Cubs — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $10,400 | Yahoo n/a
On the early-slate, RHPÂ Gerrit Cole ever so slightly edges out RHPÂ Kevin Gausman who is on the road against the pitiful Detroit Tigers. This season Cole has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any start and while his strikeouts are at a six year low with 9.7 per nine innings, that is still just inside the top-20 among qualified starters. The Cubs are an average offense against right-handed hurlers with a 100 wRC+, but they have below average power (.148 ISO) and above average strikeouts (23.8%) this season. Again this is basically a coinflip, so enjoy the aces in the early afternoon action.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: San Diego Padres vs. LHP David Peterson — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
We will not be alone in looking to target the Padres in San Diego against LHP David Peterson tonight. The soon to be 28-year-old southpaw has already been demoted to the minors twice and his 4.86 ERA and 1.622 WHIP are not offset by his 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings when adjusted for Triple-A competition. Across 49 innings in The Show, Peterson has a 6.61 ERA, with a career low 1.67 ERA while allowing eight longballs.
Peterson allows more than his fair share of power to fellow lefties, which should elevate our interest in Juan Soto and Jake Cronenworth. Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado are still the primary trio to target, but with catcher Gary Sanchez and likely leadoff man Ha-Seong Kim also profiling well against Peterson, there are plenty of ways to create unique full-stacks loaded with Friars.
Afternoon Slate Slate Target: San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Connor Seabold — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
Today RHPÂ Connor Seabold is bringing Coors Field results to San Francisco for this early afternoon game. Keep in mind this is a 1:05 p.m. local start time, which means it will be a little warmer by the Bay than it typically is for baseball games. Seabold was last seen allowing eight runs in Colorado on Sunday and while it is never fun pitching in the Mile High City, this disastrous outing was against the Detroit Tigers of all teams, who also hit a trio of taters.
Aside from Joc Pederson, all o the Giants are receiving mega-discounts on DraftKings, which makes them an excellent supporting stack while loading up on the likes of the Texas Rangers in Washington against RHP Jake Irvin or the Red Sox in Boston against RHP Paul Blackburn. Plus on the early slate, it makes it very easy to roster both Cole and Gausman in “cash game” lineups (aka H2Hs, double-ups, 3-mans, etc.).
Colorado has only one left-handed reliever in the bullpen, which means the pinch-hit risk will be low for the Giants. Michael Conforto, LaMonte Wade Jr. and J.D. Davis are appealing at the top of the order and pesky Brandon Crawford is a steal on DraftKings at shortstop for just $2,700, even at the bottom of the order. Additionally, Mike Yastrzemski is healthy for the time-being and if he is in the heart of the lineup, look to him as yet another option.
Early Slate Slate Target: St. Louis Cardinals at RHP Touki Toussaint — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool loves the St. Louis Cardinals in the early action against RHP Touki Toussaint. Still only 27-years-old, Toussaint looks like the classic Quad-A pitcher. The longtime Atlanta prospect never quite put everything together with multiple chances in The Show across four seasons. Since the Braves flipped him to the Los Angeles Angels for cash considerations back in 2022, Toussaint has also appeared for the Guardians and White Sox this season. There is still time for him to carve out a role as a multi-inning reliever or occasional spot-starter, but he is simply not effective once he clears 30 or so pitches.
Look to the usual suspects with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Lars Nootbaar leading the way. But wait … there’s more, catcher Willson Contreras and infielders Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan also profile well against Toussaint’s pitch mix. Everyone in the Chicago bullpen has seen action over the last two days, except for RHP Joe Kelly and none of the White Sox relievers are particularly intimidating, save for one-time starter RHP Reynaldo Lopez.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Though his 45 home runs in 2021 were definitely an outlier, Marcus Semien is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market tonight. Rookie RHP Jake Irvin has allowed just two home runs in his last five starts, but most projection systems have him for a 1.3-to-1.5 home runs per nine innings rate over the course of a full season. This year the 26-year-old was promoted to Triple-A coming out of spring training, but injuries to the Washington rotation forced the team to bring him up to the big club earlier than planned.
Looking at the new True Odds feature on OddsShopper, we can see that Semien is +440 in the market to hit a home run, but his odds are closer to +413. That means we are seeing a line with nearly a 5% inefficiency, which is like getting a bonus booster from the sportsbook, without doing any extra legwork.
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Final Thoughts for Saturday, July 8 | MLB DFS Picks
The Midwest has several potential trouble spots with Cleveland and Detroit leading the way, though with a little creativity and luck, delays are the most likely outcome. Once more the East Coast has us watching Boston, New York and Washington, with our nation’s capital being the most risky location for precipitation.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Strategy Show, at 11:00 a.m. ET, brought to you by Underdog Fantasy. New users sign up through this link and receive a first deposit match up to $100.
