There are 12 MLB games tonight with a nice mix of quality pitching and good offensive spots. The Red Sox stand out as the top stack as they have the highest implied run total and they are also underpriced, but most other teams look similar to each other so we should be able to find some under-owned contrarian stacks as well. Let’s look at our free MLB DFS picks and advice for today.
Let’s dive into Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, and analyze the best MLB DFS value picks tonight at DraftKings.
Looking for more MLB DFS advice? Check out our MLB articles and tools, including our industry-leading projections. We have custom-built tools to help you identify the top stacks, batters and pitchers — along with a one-of-a-kind lineup generator! You can even test how a slate could go with the new simulator tool. Sign up for our MLB DFS package for those tools and more today by clicking here.
Free MLB DFS Picks & Advice: Athletics-Red Sox Tomfoolery
Game of the Day: Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox
This game has a 10.5 total and the Red Sox are -250 favorites. They stand out in the Top Stacks tool with a 13.6 Stack Score, 13.7 percent top value percentage and 13.5 percent top stack percentage. For context, the next highest Stack Score is the Athletics at 7.8.
Boston will face Luis Medina, who has a 4.95 xFIP and 20.1 percent strikeout percentage this season. Medina gets a negative park shift, as Fenway Park’s 109 park factor is the highest among non-Coors Field stadiums over the last three seasons. The Oakland Coliseum, on the other hand, ranks 27th with a park factor of 96. Medina has been decent at limiting left-handed power with a .150 xISO, but he has also allowed a .346 xwOBA to lefties. Righties have hit for more power against him with a .292 ISO and .229 xISO. They also have a .367 xwOBA.
Boston hasn’t released their lineup yet, but we shouldn’t shy away from Justin Turner and Adam Duvall just because they don’t have the platoon advantage. Boston is also inexpensive as Rafael Devers is the most expensive player in the projected lineup at $4,900 on DraftKings. Masataka Yoshida is $4,800 and Duvall is $4,700. Nobody else is more expensive than Alex Verdugo at just $4,100. Devers has produced a .398 xwOBA and .292 xISO against right-handed pitching this season while Yoshida has a .365 xwOBA and .197 xISO.
As for Oakland, the Athletics only have a 4.7 percent chance of being the top scoring stack, but also have the highest chance of being the top value stack at 21.4 percent. They have roughly a four run implied total tonight and get a nice park upgrade. Boston is expected to open with Brennan Bernardino; and follow him with Brandon Walter. Walter has only made three Major League appearances, but he projects as a decent pitcher with a strikeout percentage around 20 percent and FIP around 4.2 according to most publicly available projection models. There is some cheap upside on Oakland, however, despite the mediocre matchup. Brent Rooker in particular stands out at just $3,300 in the cleanup spot with a .378 xwOBA and .234 xISO in 116 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers since the start of last season.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Jarren Duran (BOS): $3,500 on DraftKings
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX): $4,600 on DraftKings
Amed Rosario (CLE): $3,800 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Jarren Duran: There are many Red Sox hitters that could be on this list, but Duran stands out as the top value. He sat out yesterday’s game, but will most likely be back atop Boston’s lineup tonight against Medina. Duran has outproduced his expected numbers so far this season with a .377 wOBA and .202 ISO compared to a .341 xwOBA and .147 xISO in 202 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Even assuming he regresses going forward, he offers substantial upside thanks to 16 stolen bases to go along with his production at the plate.
Nathaniel Lowe: Lowe will most likely be hitting in the middle of the order for the Rangers tonight against Trevor Williams. Williams has only struck out 11.7 percent of left-handed hitters this season while allowing a .365 xwOBA and .201 xISO. Lowe has a .354 xwOBA and .164 xISO in 271 plate appearances against right-handed pitching this season. Nationals Park has a 108 home run park factor for left-handed hitters over the last three seasons and Lowe is available at an affordable price.
Amed Rosario: Rosario doesn’t offer much power, but he does have the platoon advantage tonight against Daniel Lynch which helps his case. He has a .348 xwOBA and .149 xISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season while Daniel Lynch has allowed a .202 xISO and .325 xwOBA to right-handed hitters so far this season. Rosario also offers stolen base upside as he has nine stolen bases so far this season after swiping 18 bags last season.
MLB DFS Picks & Advice: Top Pitchers
Hunter Brown (HOU): $9,200 on DraftKings
Zac Gallen (ARI): $9,600 on DraftKings
Aaron Civale (CLE): $7,700 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Hunter Brown: Brown’s 27.5 percent strikeout percentage is third-highest on the slate behind Luis Castillo and Andrew Abbott. He will face the Mariners, who have a league average 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season but also have a 25.2 percent strikeout percentage on their active roster.
Zac Gallen: Gallen gets a favorable matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have a 96 wRC+ and 22.3 percent strikeout percentage on their active roster against right-handed pitching this season. Gallen has been very good for the Diamondbacks, striking out 26.8 percent of hitters with a 3.44 xFIP. His 21.7 percent K-BB percentage is the best on the slate as well.
Aaron Civale: Civale isn’t as talented as a lot of the other pitchers on the slate, but he gets a mention because of his inexpensive price tag. We have plenty of valuable bats available on this slate but there are also a lot of bats that we would like to pay for. If we are stacking an expensive team, Civale will be a useful piece in a favorable matchup against Kansas City. The Royals’ active roster has an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season with a 25.1 percent strikeout percentage. Civale has only struck out 18.4 percent of hitters through his first eight starts this season, but he struck out 24.1 percent of hitters last season and projects for a 21 to 22 percent strikeout percentage over the rest of the season in most models on FanGraphs.
