The UFC returns to Las Vegas for UFC 290: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez, with Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja in the co-main event. This fight card comes with extra wrinkles. Not only do we have a pair of five round fights that project well, but this card has five fighters that are at least -500 betting favorites. In this post, we’ll be offering our UFC 290 DFS picks, value plays and more.
A few others aren’t far behind that either. Below we will cover some of the top fights on the under card to find value with the help of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Let’s dive into UFC DFS picks for UFC 290.
UFC 290 DFS Picks & Value Plays
Salaries from DraftKings. For top FanDuel UFC 290 DFS picks, check out Stokastic’s MMA fantasy point and ownership projections available at Stokastic.
Kamuela Kirk ($7,700)
With a fight featuring so many massive favorites, finding live underdogs could be tricky on this card. With that said, Kamuela Kirk looks like a potential option against Esteban Ribovics. The betting line here continues to move in Kirk’s favor as he sits at a +120 underdog. Overall, Kirk is 12-5 in his career with a 1-1 record in the UFC. He most recently lost by submission to Damon Jackson. On the other side, Ribovics holds an 11-1 professional record, but he also lost his most recent bout to Loik Radzhabov.
Looking at the Stokastic projections, this fight comes in with the highest pace. Kirk comes in with a well-rounded skillset. He lands 2.99 significant strikes, while absorbing 5.10 himself. He also averages 0.86 takedowns per bout with 40% accuracy, defending them at just 53% himself. Through his short UFC career, defense has been a major issue Kirk. However, he now faces a lower level opponent and has a 25.7% of finishing this fight himself.
On the other side, Ribovics lands 4.79 significant strikes, while absorbing 3.09 himself. He also has a grappling weakness behind his 47% takedown defense. In his most recent fight Radzhabov took him down 11 times. There’s actually a good chance that Kirk holds the wrestling edge and looks to use it in this fight.
With wrestling scoring well for DFS, Kirk becomes one of the best underdog targets on the slate. The line continuing to move in his favor also helps.
Niko Price ($8,900)
A fight somewhat near the top of pricing, Niko Price faces Robbie Lawler as a -250 favorite this weekend. Now 29-16, Lawler has one victory in his last six fights dating back to 2017. Bryan Barberena most recently knocked him out in July of last year. Meanwhile, Price enters this fight with a 15-6 record. He is 1-2 in his last three fights, getting knocked out by Phil Rowe last December. However, the favorite looks intriguing here as a potential leverage spot.
The fight with the third highest projected pace, this fight also comes in with an excellent chance for a finish. Expect little to no grappling, but Price lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.57 himself. Price holds ten knockouts to his name and Lawler has been knocked out five times in his career, including his most recent fight against Barberena.
At one point in time Lawler held knockout power. However, at 41 years of age he has become a punching bag himself. Lawler lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.67 himself. Foolishly, Lawler will continue to move forward and take damage before eventually taking a loss. All of this helps the output of the fight, but doesn’t bode well for Lawler. He has now been out-landed in nine of his last 10 fights.
With no many people likely to target Bo Nickal or Jack Della Maddalena on this card, other solid favorites like Price may fall under the radar.
Jimmy Crute ($8,200)
With the underdogs exceedingly week, taking a look at the $8,200-$8,000 fight between Jimmy Crute and Alonzo Menifield looks like a sharp idea. These two initially fought in February, but it ended in a draw. A largely competitive fight, a fence grab from Menifield resulted in the point deduction, costing him a victory. Prior to that fight, both athletes had experienced their fair share of struggles. Crute was 0-2 in his two prior fights, while Menifield came off a pair of wins.
This fight should have solid pace, but both fighters possess polar opposite styles. Crute excels on the ground. He landed six takedowns against Menifield in their first bout and he averages 5.19 takedowns per bout overall. Menifield does have 75% takedown defense himself, but Crute already showed the ability to get Menifield to the mat. On the feet, Crute averages just 3.67 significant strikes per minutes.
On the other side, Menifield holds a striking advantage. He knocked Crute down twice and out-landed him 56-31 in the fight. Overall, Menifield lands 3.88 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.04 himself. It should be noted that Menifield has been knocked out one time.
Crute needs to avoid Menifield’s power, but his wrestling will be a major advantage. With wrestling also scoring well on DraftKings, he remains the slight preference here. Either way, this remains a strong fight to target with so many massive underdogs on the card.
