Sunday wraps up the weekend MLB action getting underway at 1:05 p.m. ET at DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Jose Berrios and Jesus Luzardo as key arms. The Brewers are an interesting stacking option on the main slate, while the Dodgers and Mariners hold sway for the late-afternoon action.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 16
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Jose Berrios (TOR vs. CLE)
Blue Jays vs. Guardians – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
$8,000 at DraftKings
$8,800 at FanDuel
$37 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool admonishes any DFS gamers who thing RHP Jose Berrios is a below average pitcher. The 30-year-old is a nine-year veteran who has been outstanding more often than not, during his time in The Show. Since 2017, Berrios has one season with an ERA higher than 5.23, which is wild.
This season Berrios has held opposing teams to just two or fewer runs in 11 of his 14 starts. In the other three, he allowed three twice and five weeks ago the Phillies hung eight runs on him in 3.2 innings, in the City of Brotherly Love. Berrios didn’t go down meekly as he struck out a season-high seven. That lack of strikeouts is what has his salary at an enticing level across the DFS sites. This season, Berrios has a career-low 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings, down nearly two from last year and when compared to his career average. The erstwhile ace has been inducing more ground balls (45.3%), which has helped him stay out of trouble while also pitching deeper into games, giving him the 11 quality starts, which is the second most in the league.
Jose Ramirez is on the paternity list, so that takes the best bat out of the Cleveland lineup. Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and the improving David Fry are far from easy outs, but without Ramirez, the holes in this lineup become more prominent. If the lack of strikeouts dissuades you from considering Berrios, Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler all have higher fantasy projections than the Toronto twirler, though they also come with an increased cost of doing business.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Jesus Luzardo (MIA at WAS)
Marlins at Nationals – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
$7,600 at DraftKings
$8,900 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
Things get a little interesting on Sunday as the Nationals host the Miami Marlins. Neither team is going anywhere fast this season, though DFS gamers like to pick on each team with opposing hurlers.
While Luzardo has an unsightly 5.11 ERA, in his last seven starts he has allowed more than three earned runs once. Of course, that was nine runs against the in-state rival Tampa Bay Rays, which ruined the sublime southpaw’s mojo.
Luzardo’s strikeouts are down to 6.7 per nine innings, which like Berrios, represents a career-low and a two strikeout drop from both last year and his career rate. Though his fastball is down a tick from last year, it still sits in the 95 mph range and not much else has changed with his repertoire.
Washington has not been good against southpaws over the last season and change, with only Lane Thomas, journeyman Nick Senzel and utility man Ildemaro Vargas posting above average production. Joey Meneses was a fun story three seasons ago when he broke through as a “rookie,” but he just turned 32-years-old and the holes in his swing are apparent to the rest of the league now. Catcher Keibert Ruiz has plateaued as a hitter, while Trey Lipscomb, Luis Garcia and Jacob Young have no pop against southpaws.
The Nationals do a good job of limiting strikeouts, though this motley crew has a 20.0% rate against lefties, compared to a ridiculous 12.6% rate last season. Luzardo is best on DraftKings or Yahoo, where two pitchers are required per the rules.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD vs. KC)
Dodgers vs. Royals – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$10,600 at DraftKings
$10,800 at FanDuel
$58 at Yahoo
After making three-consecutive road starts, RHP Tyler Glasnow is back in his home park, against a less-than-daunting offense. Glasnow got an extra day of rest after being knocked around in New York on Sunday Night Baseball, ceding a pair of home runs and five “Ernies” to the Yankees. He did strike out 12, so it was far from a horrible fantasy performance.
The Royals have most of their offensive production concentrated in Bobby Witt, Nelson Velazquez and Vinnie Pasquantino, when facing righties this season. Keep in mind that Hunter Renfroe and Michael Massey are on the injured list and venerable veteran catcher Salvador Perez has been banged up. There is a chance Perez will return from his sprained knee issue tonight, but the status of the 34-year-old is still up in the air.
For those looking for some salary relief or differentiation from Glasnow, RHP Logan Gilbert is the next man up in a home matchup against the Texas Rangers. His counterpart, RHP Dane Dunning, is an interesting discount dandy against the strikeout-happy Seattle offense, and he will be less popular than fellow punt du jour LHP Kyle Harrison in San Francisco against the Angels.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers vs. Reds – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Frankie Montas
DK Top Stack %: 6.7%
FD Top Stack %: 7.3%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes Milwaukee today as the Brewers host RHP Frankie Montas. Last year Montas was dealing with a shoulder injury that required surgery, ultimately limiting him to just one appearance. After being acquired at the 2022 trade deadline from Oakland, Montas made only nine appearances for the Yankees.
This year, Montas got a fresh start in Cincinnati, with a one-year, $14 million deal. The results have been middling at best, with a five-year low 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings and a sub-40% ground ball rate. Though he is not a horrible pitcher by any stretch, Montas has been far more hittable than in prior seasons.
Both Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins profile well against their fellow righty, while two-time batting champion and former MVP Christian Yelich looks good with the platoon advantage. Brice Turang is a stolen base threat from the leadoff spot and though he is far from a household name, third baseman Joey Ortiz continues to produce from the bottom of the order, showing out over the more hyped prospect Sal Frelick.
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Late Slate Primary Target: Seattle Mariners
Mariners vs. Rangers – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Dane Dunning
DK Top Stack %: 9.7%
FD Top Stack %: 8.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool, of course, likes the Dodgers against RHP Brady Singer, with the Diamondbacks also in the mix against rookie RHP Drew Thorpe, who will be making his second appearance in The Show.
The Giants are a consideration as well, though there is some uncertainty as to if it will be LHP Jose Suarez, RHP Carson Fulmer or even RHP Jose Marte serving as the “bulk” option. That adds a degree of difficulty in determining pinch-hit risks for the swap happy Giants.
Seattle is going against RHP Dane Dunning in what looks to be a “both-sideser” (h/t TMcB) since he is an intriguing option as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo, but also coming off two rough starts. On Tuesday, Dunning was hammered for six runs in 3.2 innings of action against the Dodgers in Los Angeles, ceding one home run, handing out three free passes and striking out two. There is no real shame in that, but the preceding Tuesday, the 29-year-old gave up two longballs to the Detroit Tigers, for three total runs across five innings, with just four strikeouts.
Dunning has a career-best 9.77 strikeouts per nine innings this season, in 54.1 frames of action. Challenging hitters however has come with a tax, in the form of a career-worst 4.31 walks and 1.82 home runs per nine innings. If Dunning is dealing, he will be a steal at his salary, if not, he could see crooked numbers on the scoreboard as he walks back to the clubhouse at the end of his shift.
The Team of Destiny hung on for a 7-5 victory Saturday night after giving up four runs in the top of the ninth inning. Seattle handed RHP Nathan Eovaldi his shortest outing of the season, getting four runs in three innings as the veteran hit the showers after just 75 pitches. Eovaldi did record half a dozen strikeouts, but he ran into some tough hit-sequencing against Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh.
The Mariners have won 15 of their last 19 games and now lead the Rangers by 7.5 games in the American League West standings, despite only a +14 run differential. The starting rotation has been sublime for Seattle, carrying the team to a 42-31 record. During the recent heater, the offense has plated more than four runs only eight times in those 19 tilts.
Rodriguez hit a home run last night, giving him two in the last three games, but he has just seven on the season. That paltry total is dreadful, considering in his short career, he has three different months with seven or more round-trippers. Fortunately, he looks to be working his way out of the doldrums, which will be key as Raleigh and J.P. Crawford are not enough to carry this offense.
That trio can be augmented with Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone, both of whom show above average power with the platoon advantage. Mitch Garver is also in the mix, along with Josh Rojas, though going with duos or trios from this lineup feels like the most appropriate allocation of resources.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Miles Mikolas is near the top of the OddsShopper model for the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop. The best line is the -117 currently posted on Unibet and BetRivers.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -133 “true odds,” so the -117 line brings a festive 5.9% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with FanDuel all the way down at a punitive -1782, which works out to a horrible -6% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen “with “sharp” operator Pinnacle all the way down at a punitive -178, which works out to a dreadful -10% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
The 57% probability of Mikolas falling below the four-strikeout threshold is favorable, though obviously not a lock by any stretch of the imagination. Mikolas projects for just over four strikeouts, but that is still below the five needed for this wager to fail. The 35-year-old does have five or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts and in six of his 14 (42.8%) appearances.
For his career, Mikolas strikes out 6.6 per nine innings, with 6.8 this season. It is going to be warm in Chicago today, with temperatures in the mid-80s and a 10-to-15 mph breeze out to left field. The Cubs projected lineup has a 23.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but the collective crew also has a 9.1% walk rate. The goal will be for this team to work the count and burn through the venerable veteran’s pitch count.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Sunday, June 16
The featured slate looks to be free of any precipitation issues, though the second game of the doubleheader in Minnesota tonight could see some minor rain risk. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 12:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
