Friday wraps up the workweek with a 12-game featured slate, beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. For DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks tonight, look to RHPs Dylan Cease and Spencer Strider as top pitching options in all formats. The Batters of Birdland are in a good spot in Camden Yards against visiting LHP Kyle Freeland.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Strider at San Francisco Giants — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $12,800 | FanDuel $12,000 | Yahoo $58
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool never lost faith in RHP Spencer Strider, though even the model was impressed by back-to-back seven-inning, scoreless affairs that saw the budding superstar allow just nine baserunners. In the last start, one week ago against the Giants, in Atlanta, Strider had 10 strikeouts in seven innings, allowing just one walk and one hit.
Three starts ago, in Pittsburgh against the Pirates, Strider stumbled, ceding six runs in just 2.2 innings. That knocked him out of the lead in the National League Cy Young Award race (+350), but he is gaining ground on RHP Zac Gallen (-105) and LHP Blake Snell (+290), per OddsShopper.com. While that does not help us in the DFS world tonight, it does provide credence to the continued apex salary level.
The Giants have scored the third fewest runs in the league over the last 30 days with 3.07 per tilt. Their 24.6% strikeout rate is the eighth highest in the league during this span and nobody will be surprised to learn that their .116 ISO is a league low.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Dylan Cease vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $9,400 | Yahoo $38
We will not be alone in the assessment that RHP Dylan Cease looks like a strong DFS play in all formats on Friday. Across four August starts, the 27-year-old erstwhile ace has made four starts, with a 6.75 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. The good news is that a dozen of his 14 earned runs came in games against the Rangers in Texas and in Coors Field. In his other two matchups, sandwiched in-between these shaky outings, he had 12.1 innings at home against the Brewers and Yankees, collecting 13 strikeouts, with no home runs allowed.
Tonight Cease will be facing an Oakand squad that has scored the fewest runs in the league this season and over the last 30 days. The A’s projected lineup has a 26.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons and while they have power, the lack of runners on base when there are doubles and home runs tends to limit damage to opposing pitchers.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Lance Lynn at Boston Red Sox — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,400 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $35
Could the Los Angeles uniform be like Superman’s cape for RHPÂ Lance Lynn? In his four starts since donning Dodgers blue, the venerable veteran has allowed just four runs, all on solo shots, over 25 innings with a sterling 1.44 ERA and .189 batting average against. The 3.95 FIP indicates that he has been lucky and at some point he is going to have to face the Regression Monster.
Boston has been scuffling over the last 30 days, ranking 20th overall in runs and averaging only 3.98 runs per tilt. Triston Casas, Rafael Devers and Adam Duvall are the power bats to worry about, but otherwise there is a good chance that Lynn continues to impress for at least one more start. The lofty implied run total for Boston is going to keep gamers away, but again – this is a Wild Card for a reason. On Yahoo ($35) there is far less risk with the suppressed salary than on DraftKings and FanDuel.
For those looking to play it a little safer, RHPÂ Kodai Senga against a visiting and suddenly gobsmacked Angels squad, at a similar salary on DraftKings ($9,600) and FanDuel ($10,900) is probably the more prudent move. Those looking for a punt option can consider LHP Cole Irvin at $5,000 on DraftKings as an SP2, in Baltimore against a less than formidable Rockies offense. There is no need to drop down to Irvin on FanDuel.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles at LHP Kyle Freeland
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool does not care that LHPÂ Kyle Freeland is not pitching in Denver tonight as he seems to bring Coors Field results with him on road trips. Over his last four appearances, split between home and road starts, Freeland has logged 22 innings with a 6.14 ERA< 5.67 FIP and a .319 batting average against. He has 17 strikeouts against 15 earned runs, which is not a good ratio for pitchers, but an excellent one for DFS gamers.
Gunnar Henderson is really the only regular who struggles against southpaws, which is to be expected of the youngster in same-handed matchups. He still has power when he connects against fellow lefties, but that of course is offset by a plethora of strikeouts. Freeland has never been lights-out in same-handed matchups, so consider this a potential pivot towards or away from the young slugger and do the opposite of the field tonight.
Anthony Santander launched one out of the park last night, for his third home run in two games. He is locked in and should find himself in a prominent slot in the batting order. Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays are the next trio to target, with catcher James McCann and utility infielder Jorge Mateo at the bottom of the order providing differentiation and still maintaining synergy as part of a “wraparound” stack.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHP Hunter Greene — 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Yes, RHP Hunter Greene had a rough return to action, ceding five home runs in the Great American Ballpark, to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. He missed two months with a hip issue, but had a couple of MiLB outings under his belt prior to this re-entry into The Show. Several articles have pointed out that two or likely three of the round-trippers would not have been home runs in most venues, so keep that in mind when targeting the youngster today.
Okay, even with the preceding caveats, this is still a good matchup for Arizona, as the improved Diamondbacks continue to make a playoff push. The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed for this homestand, and while that helps pitchers – it does not save them from themselves. The top-six of the D’Backs revamped roster all has power against right-handed pitching, with likely National League Rookie of the Year, Corbin Carroll back towards the top of the order to maximize his platoon-advantage against Greene.
Right-handed batsmen Christian Walker, Tommy Pham and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all been mashing same-handed pitching this season and switch-hitter Ketel Marte does his best work from the left-side of the plate. Outfielder Alek Thomas can be feathered in for differentiation and swapping him for Carroll will create a roster with less overlap compared to the rest of the Arizona backers tonight.
Final Thoughts for Friday, August 25 | MLB DFS Picks
Tonight should be a wild one with two dozen teams in the featured tournament player pool. Be sure to keep tabs on any weather updates and enjoy one of the last MLB slates before football takes center stage.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET, brought to you by Caesars Sportsbook. New users sign up through this link or use Promo Code: AWEGET and make a $50 first wager to receive FIVE $50 bonus bets, earning the first IMMEDIATELY, and one more on each of the next four Mondays. Full details here.
