Friday wraps up the work week with an even dozen games on the featured slate and a lock time of 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Chris Sale and Hunter Brown as key arms, while the Arizona Diamondbacks and Minnesota Twins are potential alternates to the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 14
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL vs. TB)
Braves vs. Rays – 3.52 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,100 at FanDuel
$56 at Yahoo
This has been a tremendous season for LHP Chris Sale, who is in the midst of a career year. The sparkling 8-2 record is a testament to both his pitching prowess as well as the Atlanta offense. Sale has a 3.01 ERA while ranking in the top 10 for total strikeouts and his 0.940 WHIP.
Meanwhile, it has been a rough season for Tampa, as the team has been unable to work the usual Devil Ray mojo on their offense. Three hitters in the lineup tonight have struck out at a 30% rate or higher against lefties since the start of last season, with two more at 25%. There is a little pop with Yandy Diaz and Amed Rosario, along with Randy Arozarena, though the budding star has been dinged up and not as effective as in prior seasons.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown (HOU vs. DET)
Astros vs. Tigers – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$7,200 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
The last 18 months have been a roller coaster for RHP Hunter Brown. However, his salary tonight makes him the SP2 du jour on DraftKings and Yahoo. The mercurial maven has a dreadful 5.58 ERA and 1.52 WHIP on the season, but it has been a tale of two halves.
In his last seven outings, spanning 38.1 innings, Brown has recorded a 3.05 ERA, 4.53 FIP and a .194/.290/.360 triple slash line. Yes, the walks are a little higher than we would like to see but much improved, as are the 43 strikeouts in this timeframe.
Detroit has improved on offense this year, but that just means that the Motor City Kitties have climbed out of the dregs. Going from historically awful to just bad should be celebrated, but we can still confidently target against the inexperienced collection of youngsters and past their prime veterans. Keep cashing those checks, Javy Baez.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. White Sox – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Flexen
DK Top Stack %: 7.5%
FD Top Stack %: 7.9%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has Arizona as the most well-rounded stacking option, outside of Coors Field. The Diamondbacks have struggled on offense, but the World Series runner-ups have scored nine or more runs in three of the last four games.
RHP Chris Flexen has allowed “just” five runs in his last three starts, but that has only improved his ERA to 5.06 and the baseball nomad has completed the fifth inning in just three of his last six starts. Flexen has typically limited home runs, but the lack of strikeouts and above-average walks make him someone to stack against, with so many balls being put in play.
The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be closed tonight, but the D-backs are still a team to target. Building blocks include Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Joc Pederson, who all will hold the platoon advantage. Christian Walker is one of the best power bats against same-handed hurlers, and Lourdes Gurriel and Randall Grichuk can hold their own against fellow righties.
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Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
Twins vs. Athletics – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Mitch Spence
DK Top Stack %: 6.8%
FD Top Stack %: 5.7%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has one more team that could be an antidote for the Rocky Mountain Fever taking hold in Denver, with the Minnesota Twins hosting RHP Mitch Spence. The 26-year-old is the 12th-ranked prospect for the Athletics, but he is not on any industry top-100 lists.
Considering he was a 10th-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft who became a Rule 5 selection in 2023, making The Show is an accomplishment. He has marginal stuff, and it looks like stolen base issues (five in his five starts) could be compounding walk and power troubles.
Load up on the lefties, with Trevor Larnach and Max Kepler being the first two in your lineup. Switch-hitters Carlos Santana and Willi Castro present decent salary savings, and young Royce Lewis is looking like the crown jewel after returning from injury. Catcher Christian Vasquez is not too shabby, and, of course, veteran Carlos Correa is never an easy out. Still it pains me to consider Byron Buxton, but he is healthy … for the moment.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Hunter Brown is popping up in the OddsShopper model for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts prop. The best line is -+118 currently posted on Caesars.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +108 “true odds,” so the +118 line brings a desirable 4.7% expected ROI.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with sharp book Pinnacle all the way down at a punitive -107, which maths out to a dreadful -10% expected ROI . Be a savvy shopper!
The 48% probability of Brown falling below the six-strikeout threshold is not comforting, so that is why WE HAVE to get this plus value line. He projects for a tick under six strikeouts, but as detailed above in the DFS portion of this article, he has been surging.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Friday, June 14
Ugh, the forecast is messy, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic, with Baltimore, Boston, New York and Washington all seeing precipitation. The DC Metro area looks like both games on the Beltway will be played, but Boston (6:30 p.m. ET slate) and New York (featured slate) are postponement candidates. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
