Friday sees every MLB team in action, with a handful of early games and a tremendous 11-game featured slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Josiah Gray taking on the Diamondbacks in Arizona.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,600 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $41
Tonight there are plenty of talented pitchers taking the mound, though there are few slam dunk matchups and several of the standard stalwarts have been exhibiting poor and inconsistent pitching form. These variables are bringing LHP Jordan Montgomery to the forefront as one of the better options in the player pool on a point-per-dollar basis.
Detroit is epically bad against right-handed hurlers, though in a surprising development, the Tigers have been within hailing distance of league average against southpaws. The DFS salary algorithms tell a different story, with only Javier Baez ($3,500) and Riley Greene ($3,300) assigned a cap hit over $3,000 on DraftKings and none of the projected starters are more than $2,700 on FanDuel.
Montgomery does a good job of limiting power and his performances are usually steady, with his 48.2% ground ball rate over the last 900 batters faced. Though he is just above league average when it comes to strikeouts, the Motor City Kitties strike out at a 26.9% rate against lefties this season and even their 23.5% rate over the last season and change ranks among the top five most K-happy squads. The Cardinals are -240 favorites at home, which gives Montgomery a solid chance at getting bonus points for a victory.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Cristian Javier at Seattle Mariners — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $49
Two years ago, Cristian Javier did most of his work out of the bullpen and last year he split time between the rotation and the pen, essentially working as a sixth starter and also filling in for various injured Houston regulars. Now with Justin Verlander plying his trade for the Mets, Javier is a full-time member of the rotation.
Again, as mentioned at the top, this is not an easy matchup, but a combination of cooler weather, a pitching friendly park and a solid, but far from daunting offense, land Javier on the shortlist tonight. When we start to take a broader gander at the pitching options, we see that Clayton Kershaw and Yu Darvish are squaring off against the respective juggernaut offenses of the Dodgers and Padres. In San Francisco we see that LHP Sean Manaea is heavily discounted against a Brew Crew squad that has been dreadful against lefties. However, even noting that his last outing was the crazy game in Mexico City, he has lasted just 18.1 innings in six starts, with a 7.85 ERA and 7.82 FIP.
RHPs Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler are on par with Javier in their respective matchups against strikeout happy Giants squad and a Red Sox lineup that is a shell of what we are used to seeing. One last mid-tier recommendation would be RHP Merrill Kelly at home against the Nationals and while a win is in play against a below-replacement-level offense, he does not have a consistent enough strikeout baseline to satisfy DFS gamers on a regular basis.
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Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Josiah Gray at Arizona Diamondbacks — 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,400 | FanDuel $8,600 | Yahoo $33
Well now, this is a major plot twist, with RHP Josiah Gray landing on the positive side of this article. Context, of course, is everything when it comes to baseball and matchups weigh heavily when it comes to predicting outcomes. Last year, Gray led the league with 38 home runs allowed, which worked out to 2.3 longballs per nine innings.
This year it looked like more of the same was on tap, with the 25-year-old allowing three round-trippers in his first start. However, over his next five starts, he ceded only one home run and recorded a 1.57 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and he still held onto his strikeout rate of nearly one per inning. Even looking at his 3.29 FIP during this span, we have to consider that it is time to reevaluate baseline expectations for Gray. For full transparency, here are his five most recent matchups in reverse chronological order: Pirates, at Mets, Orioles, at Angels, at Rockies, which is not exactly a creampuff set of opponents.
So what has changed — well, for starters — Gray has cut his fastball usage in half using it just 19.5% and focusing more on location. When batters are sitting on “dead red” they can launch it out of the park when it comes to them in their preferred swing plane. Gray also added a slider/cutter which he has used 11.3% of the time this season as well as relying more on his slider, while his changeup is in line with his career norms.
Tonight Gray will be in Arizona, where the Chase Field roof is expected to be open for fans to enjoy the 80-degree evening weather. That is a boost to the offense, as the humidor will not have as much impact as it does when combined with a closed roof.
The Diamondbacks have been in the upper third of the league this season against right-handed pitching, though when looking at their current group of hitters back to the beginning of last season, they are average when it comes to run creation. This group also strikes out at a below average 20.3% rate, but the lowish salary on DraftKings and Yahoo make Gray a prime pitching option on both the main and late slates for large field tournaments.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Dean Kremer — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
Atlanta has a strong matchup tonight against RHP Dean Kremer, who rates out as a bottom-three pitcher on the main slate. The 27-year-old did have some nice moments last year, with a 3.23 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and an 8-7 record for the Orioles. However, that campaign looks more and more like it will be his outlier “career” year.
Power has been a major issue this season and while it is a small 132 plate appearance sample size, lefties have a .237 ISO, with righties not too far behind at a .210 ISO. When combined with a subpar 18.9% strikeout rate and just a 36.5% ground ball rate, we can see how Kremer is continually teetering on the brink of danger.
Matt Olson is lining up to be in a tremendous spot with his .423 wOBA and .351 ISO in 90 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitchers this season. Look to him in the home run market today where his early line on some sites is +320 and while that will be bet down, anything over +290 looks good.
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Ronald Acuna Jr. left yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off his left knee in the sixth inning, but he is expected to be good to go tonight. The National League Player of the Month for April is a core building block in any Atlanta stack tonight alongside Olson.
Atlanta may be a little off the radar today after they had two games rained out last weekend and only making an appearance on a couple of “main” slates this week. Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and catcher Sean Murphy are strong options who can fill out full stacks. Depending on where he lands in the batting order, switch-hitting Eddie Rosario is always worth a look as one of the cheapest Atlanta regulars.
Evening Slate Target: St. Louis Cardinals vs. LHP Matthew Boyd — 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
The Cardinals are always a nightmare for southpaws, with the ability to run out a full complement of right-handed batsmen. LHP Matthew Boyd was somehow inked to a $10 million one-year contract after the long-time Tiger had a brief one season dalliance with the Mariners last season, where he logged just 13.1 innings of relief. Well, technically he signed with San Francisco, who traded him to his home city of Seattle while he was still rehabilitating a flexor tendon injury suffered during the 2021 season.
In any event, Boyd has landed back with Detroit, and his last three starts have been rather rough. Across 15.2 innings he has allowed 11 runs and a trio of round-trippers, all to right-handed hitters. The silver lining is that he also managed 15 strikeouts, but that should not dissuade anyone from loading up on the Redbirds.
Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are two of the best in the game against southpaws and they are excellent options to use as one-offs or created a core stack. Willson Contreras is a welcome addition to St. Louis, and he is a fine way to address that pesky catcher requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo. Tommy Edman is all but assured of five plate appearances as the leadoff man, and outfielders Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill can be sprinkled in for five-man onslaughts.
Late Slate Target: Texas Rangers at LHP Tyler Anderson — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
LHP Tyler Anderson did get off the Schneid in his last start, reversing his fortunes with a pristine 6.2-inning outing against the Brewers allowing just one run and logging seven strikeouts. However, Milwaukee is one of the worst teams against lefties, and in his three preceding appearances, Anderson allowed 17 runs and five home runs, with only 13 innings to his credit.
The Texas offense has been en fuego, and they should get Corey Seager (hamstring) back in the next week or two. The heart of the order boasts plenty of power, with Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim and Nathaniel Lowe all carrying elite .200-plus ISOs over the last season-plus against southpaws. Jung and Heim do not have as long of a track record as their veteran counterparts, but they look like they will be strong contributors to the Rangers over the next few seasons.
Final Thoughts for Friday, May 5 | MLB DFS Picks
There are minor weather concerns on the East Coast with New York and Philadelphia, who should have rain in the area during the game. Keep in mind that as spring slowly turns towards summer, we can get unexpected weather systems that pop up around ballparks.
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