MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 Logan Gilbert +Baltimore Bats (May 3)

Wednesday is a travel day, which means plenty of afternoon baseball. Each DFS site is handling the early action differently, but DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo all agree on an eight-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Before you lock in lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHP Logan Gilbert in Oakland against the Athletics. Outside of the Coors Field Extravaganza, Baltimore is back on top as the offense to target, as the Orioles continue their series in Kansas City against RHP Zack Greinke, who is likely headed for a rocking chair next year.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Happy Ace Day! In a fun twist, we have ample pitching options on each of today’s slates, so the analysis and format has been adjusted to accommodate this scenario.

Main Slate Primary Pitching Targets

1. RHP Logan Gilbert at Oakland Athletics — 3.3 implied runs: Not only is Gilbert the top recommendation for the featured slate, but he also doubles as the primary pitcher on the two-game late slate. The only wrinkle is that there could be rain risk in Oakland. Aside from that, the third-year starter gets a matchup against a putrid Athletics lineup that struggles against right-handed pitching and is frequently recommended in this article as an offense to target.
2. RHP Dylan Cease vs. Minnesota Twins — 3.8 implied runs: We can grant Cease a mulligan for his last two starts, which ended in eight innings and nine earned runs allowed to a top-of-the-line Tampa Bay offense. In his four preceding appearances, he tallied 22.1 innings, a 2.01 ERA and 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings, ceding one home run. Yes, the 4.84 walks per nine are a little concerning, but the 3.37 FIP and 3.92 xFIP should assuage any fears of a meltdown against the Twins tonight.
3. RHP Alek Manoah at Boston Red Sox — 4.5 implied runs: Though the back-of-the-baseball-card numbers are not great this year, Manoah has made great strides in his last two starts. For the season, most of his troubles came against the Rays two weeks ago and the Cardinals in his season debut. These eight innings ended with three home runs and 12 earned runs, but in his last two starts he has allowed just two runs over a dozen innings. The Boston Red Sox offense is nothing like we have come to expect over the last two decades, and they can be targeted by above-average pitchers. For those that have a short memory, Manoah was a fringe Cy Young Award candidate for most of last year.
4. RHP Shane Bieber at New York Yankees — 3.6 implied runs: Speaking of offenses getting by on reputation, that also applies to the Yankees, who are without Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Hitters such as Harrison Bader, Willie Calhoun and Oswaldo Cabrera are playing prominent roles instead of filling out the bottom third of the order. Bieber is a frontline ace, and he should be able to hold his own against the Bronx Batsmen.
5. RHP Shohei Ohtani at St. Louis Cardinals — 3.6 implied runs: Keep in mind that Busch Stadium is a neutral to slightly pitching-favorable park until the heat and humidity arrive in St. Louis. Ohtani is carrying an appropriate salary for his talent level and this matchup, which is why he is not higher on this list. The best Cardinal bats will be in righty-righty matchups with the Anaheim ace, and that plays in his favor.

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Early Slate Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. San Francisco Giants — 3.4 implied runs

First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

• DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo n/a

This is an easy recommendation, and while the Giants will be rolling out a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters, LHP Framber Valdez will be up for the challenge. The key attribute for Valdez is that he is the most extreme of extreme ground ball pitchers. Over the last two-plus seasons, Valdez has a 66.5 ground ball rate and a negative-3.1-degree launch angle. He also has seen his strikeouts creep up to nearly league average as well, which makes him a potent option who is all but assured of a quality start every time he takes the mound.

Late-Afternoon Slate Pitching Target: LHP Shane McClanahan vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 2.9 implied runs

First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET

• DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,400 | Yahoo $51

Though there is not a discount for LHP Shane McClanahan, he can still outperform this salary in a home matchup against a pitiful Pirates lineup. This season, McClanahan is averaging an economical 89.2 pitches per start and a stellar 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Both of these rates are slightly higher than last season, and with the southpaw celebrating just his 26th birthday last week, he is still on the upside trajectory of his talent level.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles at RHP Zack Greinke — 5.1 implied runs

First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET

The Batters of Birdland did not let us down yesterday against LHP Ryan Yarbrough, and we can go right back to them today against RHP Zack Greinke. While I do like to mention that Greinke typically does not spontaneously combust on the mound, we could actually be at the end of the line. After Greinke had a solid campaign last year, the Royals ponied up for one last hurrah, giving the 39-year-old a one-year, $8.5 million contract. Greinke gets by on guile and inducing weak contact. It also seems his back of tricks is nearly empty, as he has allowed 19 runs in his last 19.2 innings over a four-start span.

The Orioles offense is a collection of incredibly entertaining prospects and a couple of early-career veterans such as Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins developing into steady every-game producers. Uber prospects Gunnar Henderson at shortstop and switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman portend for at least a half decade of fun if the Baltimore bats continue their collective improvement. Austin Hays and Jorge Mateo are likely to fall towards the bottom of the order against right-handed starters, but they are perfectly fine discounted differentiation options as part of a wraparound stack.

Adding for posterity: The Coors Field Extravaganza is naturally the best offensive environment on both the main and late slates, so you know what to do with that information.

Early Slate Target: San Diego Padres vs. RHP Luis Cessa — 5.8 implied runs

First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

San Diego is being recommended for a third consecutive day, as the Padres are wrapping up their series against a charlatan-filled Cincinnati pitching staff. RHP Luis Cessa crafted a couple of solid seasons as a reliever for the Yankees and Reds, but he is completely miscast as a starter. In five outings across 21.2 innings, he has recorded just nine strikeouts while issuing nine walks and being saddled with a 9.55 ERA. The silver lining is that he has allowed just three home runs, but that is mostly irrelevant when nearly 40% of his hits go for extra bases. Literally anyone in a Padres uniform is in play this afternoon, up to and including the bat boy.

Late-Afternoon Slate Target: New York Mets at RHP Michael Lorenzen — 5.2 implied runs

First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET

The rainout on Tuesday evening saved the Tigers for one day, but it is time for RHP Michael Lorenzen to pay the piper. Lorenzen is a fun story, as he also saw time in the outfield sporadically when he was with the Cincinnati Reds. Unfortunately, that is the last of the nice things we can say about him, as he has been otherwise throwing batting practice this season. The 31-year-old will be asked to take the ball every five days and eat some innings for the Tigers, but it is not going to be pretty.

Targeting the batters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate will be the first priority of the day. Brandon Nimmo and switch-hitting Francisco Lindor lead the way, but we should also see Jeff McNeil and Daniel Vogelbach get a boost in the batting order. Brett Baty looks good as the afternoon punt du jour, and, of course, Pete Alonso and Starling Marte are always desirable plays.

Final Thoughts for Wednesday, May 3 | MLB DFS Picks

Tuesday saw the game in Detroit postponed after lock, and today there is a doubleheader that does have some slight chance of precipitation in the first game.

The East Coast is the main trouble spot since Boston and Washington are likely to see showers, with what looks like limited coverage. New York is definitely going to see rain, and it could extend well into the game window. In a rare occurrence, there is rain in the forecast for Oakland, and while we rarely get rainouts with the Southern California venues, this one is worth monitoring, as it is the final matchup of the slate.

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