PGA DFS Fades & Pivots Wells Fargo Championship: Rickie Fowler Vibing

The Wells Fargo Championship returns the PGA to an elevated field, with 34 of the world’s top 50 golfers in play. That’s a far cry from the field last week that had only two of the top 50. The Wells Fargo will also return to Quail Hollow this season, a longer, 7,500-yard par 71 that has hosted multiple major events — including the 2017 PGA Championship. Quail Hollow will play somewhat close to the longer courses at events like the PGA Championship, making this a great warmup start. With great off-tee games and players trending well in approaches and ball striking, we will employ Stokastic’s ownership and scoring projections to find the strongest PGA DFS fades and pivots of the week.

PGA DFS Fades & Pivots | Wells Fargo Championship

Quail Hollow Stats and Info

Par 71, 7,554 yards featuring Champion Bermudagrass on the greens; played as the eighth-toughest venue in 2019 and sixth toughest in 2018.
A very driver-heavy course where the average driving distance for the week will often be 10% to 15% higher than PGA Tour average; the recent changes from 2017 seem to have helped emphasize driver more as well.
Greens and fairways are hard to hit, as greens in regulation tend to be 3% to 5% lower than average and driving accuracy tends to be even further off the norm.
Long approaches are plentiful here, and proximity from 175 yards and out is a good stat to observe in models.

React App

2023 Wells Fargo Championship PGA DFS Fades and Pivots

High-End PGA DFS Fade: Tyrrell Hatton

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 16.7% | FanDuel: 18.7%

Hatton is priced at a modest $8,500 on DraftKings, which will instantly catch many people’s attention — most notably the sharps in larger buy-in tournaments. He has had a strange season, as he looked on the verge of something great after posting second- and fourth-place finishes in Florida but then tailed off dramatically after a weird warmup injury at the Match Play. Hatton’s 19th place at the RBC was a step in the right direction, but he still lost strokes on approach for the week. Now he comes to a much longer golf course where his regressing ball striking will be under more duress than usual.

Hatton has played Quail Hollow three times and never posted a result better than 37th, which is where he finished last season in a weaker field. His 18% ownership projection may not be warranted given he doesn’t stand out enough in the mid-$8,000 range, where a couple of players have the same or better top-6 probabilities.

High-End Pivot: Rickie Fowler

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 8.0% | FanDuel: 10.7%

Rickie Fowler is trending right alongside Hatton on Stokastic. It’s an interesting dynamic, as Fowler’s PGA DFS projections are directly behind Hatton’s, but he also is projecting for about half the overall ownership of Hatton on DraftKings. This almost seems strange given how strongly Fowler has played this season and how good his track record is at Quail Hollow. On top of winning this event in 2012, Fowler has racked up a couple of other top-10 finishes since the renovations, and he has outperformed Hatton by a country mile at this stop over their careers. Plus, with Fowler’s improved ball striking — and the fact he’s gained strokes on approach in 12 straight events — it is clear that he’ll be an excellent pivot option in this range.

Latest PGA DFS Content

Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Keegan Bradley

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 8.4% | FanDuel: 13.4%

Bradley comes in with decent PGA DFS ownership projections, which could see him push to be over 10% rostered in many GPPs. The move may be based somewhat on his second-place finish at this event last season, which came on a completely different course. The general public may not know the difference, and the fact of the matter is that Bradley was playing more consistent golf around this time in 2022 than he is in 2023. Ranking just 49th in strokes gained tee-to-green in this field, he has been less than dominant off the tee of late, which is not a great sign for a player whose putter is mostly unpredictable. Bradley is cheaper at $7,700, but his recent play and PGA DFS projections don’t warrant him being the heaviest-owned player in this region.

Mid-Range Pivot: Cameron Davis

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 5.8% | FanDuel: 3.9%

For lower ownership in this range with a little volatility, Cameron Davis looks like a prime player to jump on. Two top-10 finishes over his last three starts have been marked by much better driving of the ball. He gained over 7.7 strokes ball striking alone at the RBC and finished seventh for the week despite losing strokes on the greens. Davis is a scorer who can pop up on a GPP-winning team any day, even if he only manages a top-25 finish. He played well at this venue in 2021, finishing 26th (but was top 10 after three rounds) and made some clutch putts at the Presidents Cup in the fall as well. Davis is only trending for 5% to 6% ownership on DraftKings, making him an excellent upside pivot in GPPs.

Mid-Range PGA DFS Fade: Keith Mitchell

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 15.9% | FanDuel: 10.8%

On the surface, Keith Mitchell is a superb fit for Quail Hollow. He is a long straight driver of the golf ball and finished top 10 at this event in 2019 and 2021. Unfortunately, simply going off course history isn’t a great strategy, and Mitchell’s recent form is bothersome. He was clearly the worse player between himself and Sungjae Im at the team event (where Im was one of the leaders in strokes gained for the week), he barely scratched out a made cut at the Masters and then lost strokes everywhere at the RBC. With PGA DFS ownership projections that are pushing over 15%, it is expecting a lot to have Mitchell bounce back and pay off as cheaper chalk in PGA DFS. A fade is likely the better play, as this range is full of great pivot options.

Mid-Range Pivot: Shane Lowry

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 10.3% | FanDuel: 8.9%

If Lowry had been at this range two weeks ago at the RBC, he likely would have been pushing 20% ownership for the week. However, after busting as chalk at that event, Lowry comes in somewhat forgotten by the masses and in a nice spot to potentially be used as a pivot option in GPPs. With his $8,100 DraftKings salary — and names like Mitchell gaining steam at under $8,000 — it’s unlikely Lowry’s ownership will push much past 10%, and he may even come in under that number in some tournaments. Lowry ranks right in the middle of the low-$8,000 range in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections and in front of Mitchell in terms of top-6 probability. Finding the extra money to get up to the lower-owned Lowry will offer better overall ownership and access to a player with better pedigree on a championship-style course.