Monday turns the page on a new week with a 10-game slate and an eight-game featured slate that begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. For those of you already missing the NBA, there is another five-game slate with a 6:10 p.m. ET lock time to keep your analytical needs satiated until Tuesday’s Play-In Tournament begins. Now onto our MLB DFS picks for today.
Before you lock in lineups, there are several Stokastic tools that can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks player projections and popularity for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including RHP Luis Castillo and the Milwaukee Brewers against RHP Jake Woodford.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo at Chicago Cubs — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,500 | Yahoo $51
RHP Luis Castillo has been stellar during his first two starts in Seattle, holding the Angels and Guardians scoreless across 11.2 innings and striking out a dozen. This will be his first appearance on the road and taking on a diluted Cubs lineup in Wrigley Field is an enticing scenario.
The 30-year-old is far from a spring chicken, but we also know what we are in for when he takes the mound. Only once in his previous six seasons in The Show has Castillo posted a 4.00 or higher ERA, and in four of his campaigns he has been at or below 3.40, which is impressive. He still strikes out just over one batter per inning and the projected Cubs lineup has six hitters who strike out above league average when facing right-handed hurlers.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Zac Gallen vs. Milwaukee Brewers — 4.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,100 | FanDuel $8,900 | Yahoo $48
In Sunday’s article, I mentioned that the Milwaukee offense was going to be a team that we rolled out against poor pitchers yet targeted with above-average hurlers. Today we are flipping the script and giving RHP Zac Gallen a vote of confidence in this matchup. The 27-year-old has an unsightly 7.59 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP over his first two starts, but considering that those were both on the road against the Padres and Dodgers, we can give him a mulligan. Gallen has continued to add strikeout upside to his fantasy profile over the last couple of seasons and to his credit, he managed to notch 10 in his 10.2 innings against the cream of the National League West.
LHP Julio Urias and RHP Logan Webb are squaring off in San Francisco and they are likely to be popular on the late slate. Urias is also worthy of consideration in main slate contests, particularly on FanDuel where points are awarded for quality starts.
Early Slate Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez at Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $51
There are several strong pitching options on the early slate. Well, early has a relative definition when it comes to MLB DFS as sometimes it means early afternoon and at other times like today, it means the wave of five games beginning in the 30 minutes prior to the featured slate.
The Pirates have lost phenom Oneil Cruz for a significant, though yet determined, amount of time after he fractured his ankle in a while sliding into home plate on Sunday. That takes a key bat away from an already pedestrian offense and makes Pittsburgh a desirable team to target when they are in pitching friendly PNC Park.
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Framber Valdez is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the league and over his last 1,000 batters faced, he has a negative 3.8-degree launch angle and a ridiculous 66.9% ground ball rate. Last year he started to see an increase in strikeouts, which had him ending nearly one in four plate appearances in a whiff. Add in the talented Houston offense backing him and we have a pitcher we can build around nearly every time he takes the mound.
For those of you playing on sites that require two pitchers, veteran RHP Kyle Gibson taking on the Athletics is a strong point per dollar option. Gibson has never quite put everything together when it comes to his pitch mix, however, he is a fine innings-eater that most teams would love to roll out every five days. Look to him as a streamer in season long leagues for this matchup against the punch-less Oakland offense that lost Seth Brown to a strained oblique this weekend.
Reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara is worthy of consideration, though he has a tricky matchup against the Phillies and his best attribute is going deep into games, but not as much on the strikeout front. Quality starts are key, but in MLB DFS strikeouts are the preferred currency of the realm.
MLB Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Atlanta Braves vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft — 5.4 implied runs
RHP Zack Greinke and LHP Wade Miley made the short list of pitchers to target, however, these venerable veterans just never seem to spontaneously combust on the mound. To wit, over the last three seasons, Greinke has ceded more than four runs only nine times in 58 (15.6%) outings and Miley has allowed more than four runs six times in his last 38 (15.7%) appearances.
Rather than roll the dice against a savvy veteran, let’s take a look at the inexperienced Graham Ashcraft. The 25-year-old has had some moments, but his biggest challenge when he is on the mound is a lack of strikeouts (78 in 112 innings). He works mostly with his slider and cutter and while he has decent speed, the lack of a curveball or change-up is not doing him any favors against big league batsmen. Walks are an issue and double plays can only get him out of so many jams. If any ground balls get through the infield when runners are on base, he is going to be in trouble.
Atlanta will be without Travis d’Arnaud who is in the concussion protocol, but they still have former Athletic Sean Murphy replacing catcher William Contreras, making this a phenomenal stacking situation on DraftKings and Yahoo which require a backstop in every lineup.
The top of the order is loaded with All-Star talent, as Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley will be holding court. The bottom of the order is also strong, with experienced hitters Eduardo Rosario, Marcel Ozuna and Orlando Arcia fully capable of handling anything Ashcraft sends their way.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. LHP Patrick Corbin — 6.0 implied runs
For a third straight start, we will be recommending the team facing lefty Patrick Corbin. In nine combined innings against Tampa Bay and Atlanta, in Nationals Park, the 33-year-old veteran has allowed 20 baserunners, 10 runs and three round-trippers, with a scant six strikeouts. Plus, over the last two seasons and change he has allowed the most home runs in the league and it isn’t even close.
Mike Trout is one of the best hitters in the history of baseball against southpaws and he will be setting the table for the light tower power of Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury who posted a .224 ISO and a .302 ISO against lefties last season. Then we have the amazing Shohei Ohtani who has no weaknesses in lefty-lefty matchups, plus former Nationals third basemen Anthony Rendon is finally healthy and done serving his silly four-game suspension for being a dork.
Look to the Angels as one of the top teams on the main slate as well. This is the perfect countermove against the Coors Field Extravaganza.
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Early Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. LHP JP Sears — 5.0 implied runs
Let’s see, a young and unproven offense going against a young, inexperienced pitcher who lacks strikeout stuff and allows a lot of contact. Yup, the Orioles win out over southpaw JP Sears, even with the recent renovations to Camden Yards making it a little less hitting friendly in the spring months.
Sears allows plenty of contact to batters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate, though all the power potential resides with the righties. Aside from leadoff man Cedric Mullins and phenom Gunnar Henderson, who may get a day off, the Baltimore roster card will be loaded with right-handed bats.
Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander and Austin Hays will be in the heart of the order and each continues to improve with more experience. Jorge Mateo has pop and speed, culminating in two dingers and five stolen bases in his eight games.
Ramon Urias provides a discount at the hot corner with a paltry $2,800 salary on DraftKings, and catcher Adley Rutschman is more like a corner infielder or designated hitter when it comes to his offense. If this young team is firing on all cylinders, we could get some crooked numbers on the early slate.
Final Thoughts for Monday, April 10
The weather looks good across all of Monday’s action, which removes the biggest headache. Tournaments are also larger than normal with no NBA today, so enjoy the fun!
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