Tuesday’s MLB DFS action brings a few afternoon games, leading into an 11-game main slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you lock in lineups, there are several Stokastic tools that can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks player projections and popularity for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, including Framber Valdez against the anemic Detroit Tigers and bats from both teams playing in Kauffman Stadium tonight. Now onto our MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez vs. Detroit Tigers — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $9,800 | Yahoo $51
Framber Valdez had a solid first outing, holding the Chicago White Sox scoreless across five frames, with four strikeouts on an efficient 85 pitches. In this matchup, he induced a dozen ground ball outs against five fly ball outs. That, of course, is his calling card, with an elite 63.6% ground ball rate to lefties and a nice 69.0% to righties since the start of the 2021 season. Over his career, Valdez has a negative-3.4-degree launch angle, which curtails homeruns. He also has notched 8.72 strikeouts per nine innings since the 2020 season, and combined with the Houston offense backing him, the 29-year-old will be a frequent recommendation in this article series again this year.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Shane Bieber at Oakland Athletics — 3.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $56
Shout out to the Athletics, who plated 11 runs last night in an extra-inning loss after putting just three runners across the plate in their first trio of tilts. This is going to be an outlier performance, as there will be entire series this season where Oakland does not create double-digit run totals.
Shane Bieber blanked the Mariners for six innings in Seattle last week, allowing just six baserunners. The three strikeouts were not overly exciting, but that can easily be rectified tonight against the A’s. The projected lineup facing the Biebs produced a respectable .168 ISO against right-handed hurlers last season, though it was accompanied by a 27.9% strikeout rate. The 27-year-old is worthy of being a focal point on the main slate, and he clearly stands out on the on the late slate.
Secondary Targets (SP2s on DraftKings and Lottery Tickets on FanDuel)
RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. Minnesota Twins: For the early action, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner rises to the top of the projections, with his counterpart Kenta Maeda barely edging out the dregs of Hayden Wesneski and Luis Cessa.
RHP Max Scherzer at Milwaukee Brewers: It is likely that “Mad Max” will give up a longball or two, but there are plenty of strikeouts available in the Brewers lineup.
RHP Nick Pivetta vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Depending on his popularity, we can look to both sides of this matchup. Pivetta gets more name recognition than actual fantasy production, with a paltry 5.02 career ERA, though he still strikes out close to a batter per inning. The Pittsburgh offense is inconsistent, though Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds are above-average talents at the top of the order, and veterans Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana are far from easy outs. For those building 10 or more lineups, if Pivetta draws a significant projected popularity in the 30% range, be sure to have a Bucs stack or two as direct leverage against the field.
LHP Julio Urias vs. Colorado Rockies: Urias is the king of the quality start, notching 19 last season in his 31 appearances. Last season he was allowed to go beyond six innings only four times, and he tallied 95 or more pitches on three occasions. The win is always in play with the Dodgers offense behind him, but just know that he needs to get by on efficiency and clean innings to maximize his fantasy production. This makes him a far better option on FanDuel, where points are awarded for quality starts.
Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays at LHP Kris Bubic — 5.8 implied runs
It is going to be relatively warm tonight for the game in Kauffman Stadium, with temperatures in the 70s. There is also a strong wind with sustained breezes in the 15 to 25 mph range out to left-center field. There is a slight chance of late-inning precipitation, depending on how quickly things cool down in Kansas City.
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Kris Bubic is a friend to all right-handed hitters, with a 10.3% walk rate and 1.28 home runs per nine innings in his last 914 opposite-handed matchups. It is likely that Toronto will run out a lineup brimming with righties, aside from former Diamondback Daulton Varsho.
Bo Bichette, George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are, of course, the standout options, but do not overlook Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield in the bottom third of the lineup, with their above-average power against southpaws. Danny Jansen is also likely to be at the back of the order, and this trio is a savvy way to gain discounted access to the Blue Jays.
Kansas City Royals vs. LHP Yusei Kikuchi — 4.5 implied runs
But wait, there’s more … The Royals have several all-or-nothing hitters that could very well thrive against Yusei Kikuchi tonight. Over his last 875 lefty-righty matchups, Kikuchi has ceded 2.01 home runs per nine innings, along with a .235 ISO.
The wind is not going to do him any favors tonight, and that bodes well for the likes of Franmil Reyes’ and Hunter Dozier’s prodigious power. Of course, they do have holes in their swing, but that is more than mitigated by their near-minimum salaries across the MLB DFS picks sites.
Bobby Witt Jr. is all but assured five at-bats at the top of the order tonight, and veteran catcher Sal Perez has a long track record of mashing lefty pitching. MJ Melendez has been promising, with a .357 wOBA and .188 ISO in his 126 career plate appearances against fellow lefties. FanDuel missed the boat by assigning him a $2,900 salary cap hit, which is ridiculous.
Late Slate Target: Cleveland Guardians at LHP JP Sears — 3.9 implied runs
It is going to be cooler in Oakland tonight, with game-time temperatures in the low-50s. This should be a boost for the pitchers, but it is going to take more than weather to save JP Sears from potential embarrassment in this tilt. Additionally, projected catcher Shea Langeliers has been dreadful at preventing steals, with 20 successful attempts on him in his last 18 starts. The new rules, including the pitch clock and larger bases, are not going to do any favors for the A’s battery tonight.
Cleveland is likely to move players around in their lineup with a lefty on the mound. Oscar Gonzalez should be in the middle of the order, Amed Rosario will likely move up a few spots in the lineup as well, and these righties can be had at a significant discount on all DFS sites. Jose Ramirez and Josh Bell are always strong options as switch-hitters, and Ramirez already has a pair of steals. Myles Straw leads the Guardians and the league with four thefts, and there is a chance he is hitting leadoff tonight. He is a pinch-hit risk, but if he gets on base, he is going to be running. Even at the bottom of the order, he has value as a differentiation option in a wraparound stack.
Final Thoughts for Tuesday, April 4
Today is another busy one, with a trio of early games and an 11-game featured slate. We have our first weather spots to monitor, with Cincinnati potentially seeing scattered showers on the afternoon slate, though it is unlikely that the game is at risk of a postponement or even much of a delay.
On the main slate, St. Louis and Kansas City will be dealing with late-evening rain. The overall risk to either matchup is minimal but still worth noting so many hours out since this is definitely a matchup to target.
Be sure to get all the updated information for MLB DFS picks on the Stokastic MLB Strategy Show, starting at 12 p.m. ET and brought to you by Bet365.
