Tuesday has a handful of early games and then a terrific 10-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including Gerrit Cole, the Boston Red Sox offense and more.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. Baltimore Orioles — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,200 | FanDuel $11,100 | Yahoo $55
Tonight the decision at the top comes down to RHPs Gerrit Cole and Yu Darvish, with Cole ultimately winning out due to his amazing current form. Through 10 tilts, Cole has held the opposition to two runs or fewer nine times. The only blemish was two weeks ago when the 32-year-old ace allowed five earned runs in Tampa Bay against the Rays. In his very next start, he limited them to two. In a fun twist, all four of his home runs allowed came in these two outings, which is excusable considering Tampa has hit 15 more home runs than the next-best team.
This is not going to be an easy matchup, as the Baltimore lineup is loaded with talented hitters. Of course, most are just breaking through into The Show, which can lead to inconsistency and struggles at the plate. Collectively, the Orioles have been just above league average against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last year. Cole should be able to handle this matchup, and he does have strikeout upside with his 30.9% rate across his last 1,122 batters faced.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Brayan Bello at Los Angeles Angels — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,300 | FanDuel $8,500 | Yahoo $31
Pickings are slim on the two-game late slate, though RHP Brayan Bello is worth discussing, as his reduced salary also has him in contention as an SP2 on DraftKings and Yahoo for the featured slate. Bello started out with Boston as a 19-year-old back in 2018, playing both in the Dominican Summer League and the Gulf Coast League with the Red Sox rookie affiliate. Last year he broke through with 13 appearances in The Show, including 11 starts. Bello has just enough strikeout potential to be interesting, and he should be able to hold a slot in the Boston rotation for the next several seasons.
The Angels have produced top-5 numbers against right-handed pitching over the last season-plus, which should be no surprise for any offense that has both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Remember the context of this recommendation, though the nice thing about DFS is that we all have the same player pool.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Nathan Eovaldi at Pittsburgh Pirates — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:35 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $10,900 | Yahoo $45
Yesterday we looked at RHP Dane Dunning in this space against the Pirates, and he held serve, allowing only one run across 5.2 innings before the bullpen ultimately allowed five runs to Pittsburgh in a losing cause. Today we can go right back to a Texas righty, with Nathan Eovaldi looking like the top-shelf option for the early slate.
The 33-year-old is off to an outstanding start, and prior to his last outing, where he ran into the Atlanta offense and allowed a pair of home runs, he had put together three consecutive scoreless appearances spanning 25.2 innings. The elder statesman who made his MLB debut back in 2011 still has enough left in the tank to record around a strikeout per inning. He also gets just enough ground balls to help clear the bases for when he suffers the inevitable longball. The Pirates have been a bottom-5 squad against right-handed pitching over the last season-plus, which also played into Eovaldi’s advantage.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox at RHP Griffin Canning — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Once again the Coors Field Extravaganza is pushing 12 runs for the projected total, so clearly that is a great place to start choosing foundational lineup pieces.
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is eyeing the Boston Red Sox in Anaheim going against RHP Griffin Canning as a potentially underrepresented stack in the large-field tournaments. Canning was a prospect of note prior to the pandemic, but he has not been able to maintain his performance trajectory. Currently he profiles best as a multi-inning reliever or potential spot starter that is limited to just two times through opposing batting orders. The 27-year-old allows too much power — both doubles and home runs — to consistently avoid crooked numbers. To wit, he has ceded one round-tripper in five of his six appearances while allowing at least three runs on four occasions.
Look to lefties Rafael Devers, Tristan Casas, Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran as the core options for any Boston stacks. Justin Turner can still hold his own against subpar pitching, and the 38-year-old has a reasonable salary on DraftKings ($3,600) and FanDuel ($3,000), but he can be skipped on Yahoo ($21). The smaller the Red Sox stack (e.g., duos and trios), the closer together the hitters should be in the batting order for maximum synergy.
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Late Slate Target: Seattle Mariners vs. RHP Luis Medina — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Seattle came through yesterday as the primary stack recommendation, as they plated 11 runs and the fantasy goodness was concentrated with the popular options. Tonight we can go back to them on both slates in a nice matchup against rookie RHP Luis Medina. The 24-year-old came over from the Yankees, along with fellow pitchers LHP Ken Waldichuk and LHP JP Sears, as part of the return assets for RHP Frankie Montas.
Medina does belong in a big league rotation, but like many pitchers, his development was derailed by the cancellation of the 2020 MiLB season. He showed enough at Double-A in 2021 and 2022 that the Athletics decided to promote him after only 13.1 innings at Triple-A. After getting rocked in his debut, allowing eight runs to the Angels, Medina did deliver a pair of quality starts against Arizona and Texas. Of course, he barely met that definition, allowing three runs in six innings during both appearances. Home runs have been an issue, as he has ceded five in his 17 innings, and though Seattle is not a power-laden team, it is not a forgiving lineup either.
Outfielders Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic are the pair to build around for DFS and in the home run market. Eugenio Suarez and second-year catcher Cal Raleigh have enough power to turn mistake pitches into extra-base hits, and J.P. Crawford in the leadoff spot or Jose Caballero in the nine-hole can provide salary relief.
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Early Slate Target: St. Louis Cardinals at RHP Graham Ashcraft — 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
It has been interesting watching RHP Graham Ashcraft over the last two seasons, during which he has made 28 starts for Cincinnati and posted an eerily similar stat line in each campaign, resulting in a 4.87 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings. When he is locating his pitches, he is amazing … when he is not, well, that is why we want to stack against him. In his nine starts this season, the 25-year-old has held the opposition to three or fewer runs seven times. The remaining pair of games also comprise two of his last three outings, and in those games he lasted 6.2 innings while allowing 15 earned runs. Yes, one of those starts was in Coors Field, but in that game he allowed seven runs — though the only extra-base hits were a pair of doubles.
The goal of Ashcraft is to induce soft contact, preferably in the form of ground balls. However, because he does not miss many bats, if his defense is not able to pick him up with double-plays, or if the offense is “hitting it where they ain’t,” crooked numbers follow.
Do not expect many home runs from the Cardinals, but their disciplined collection of batsmen should be able to produce an endless parade of baserunners if Ashcraft does not have his best stuff on the mound. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman are the primary targets. The next wave includes catcher Willson Contreras, shortstop Paul DeJong and switch-hitting second baseman Tommy Edman. St. Louis provides the positional flexibility that makes this offense easy to work into lineups as full or mini-stacks, which allows for plenty of differentiation from other Redbird-filled lineups.
Final Thoughts for Tuesday, May 23 | MLB DFS Picks
Tuesday looks like a dry day across the MLB schedule with no impactful precipitation in the forecast.
Check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET, brought to you by brought to you by BetMGM.
