Monday brings a seven-game main slate with a 7:05 ET start, and the pitching options across the board are creating some interesting leverage for both arms and bats. Here we will once again turn to Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, to find some of the best MLB DFS value plays tonight. Right now, some of those value plays include right-handed power bats from a Chicago team in a great platoon spot; let’s get into it.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 19
Chicago Cubs (Drew Smyly) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Osvaldo Bido)
The Cubs have the second- or third-highest implied run total on the slate, depending on where the Rangers open when their line is posted. Bido is making his second major league appearance, and he is a big question mark. He posted below-average strikeout numbers in the minors through the 2021 season but seemingly made improvements, as he struck out 24.1% of hitters at Triple-A last season and 23.5% this season. His rest-of-season projections on FanGraphs range from well below average to average. On this slate, however, it makes sense to roster bats against him despite the risk that he has improved since there are so many good pitchers elsewhere. Pittsburgh is a viable MLB DFS value stack against Smyly, but the lefty has held right-handed hitters to a .153 xISO and .299 xwOBA this season. If paying down for an SP2, Smyly is a reasonable option.
Colorado Rockies (Austin Gomber) at Cincinnati Reds (Brandon Williamson)
This game has some weather concerns, but assuming it plays, it looks like a great spot for offenses. Gomber has been better away from Coors Field this season, as one would expect, but he has still struggled on the road. The Reds lead the slate with a 5.6 implied run total, and they look like the top stack. Colorado has a 4.4 implied run total that is higher than most teams on the slate as well. After posting unimpressive numbers at Double-A and Triple-A the last two seasons, Williamson has made six starts for the Reds where he has continued to struggle. Williamson has a 6.34 xFIP in eight starts at Triple-A this year, and he has a 5.51 xFIP in six starts since his promotion. The Rockies are a weak offense, but it is still a favorable park for hitters in a good matchup.
Boston Red Sox (James Paxton) at Minnesota Twins (Pablo Lopez)
The Twins have a relatively high 4.2 implied run total, but that should not scare anyone away from Paxton. The Red Sox played a doubleheader yesterday and have an overworked bullpen, so the elevated total probably speaks more to who the Twins will face after Paxton than it does Paxton. Paxton leads the slate in strikeout percentage at 33.1% this season, and his 3.10 xFIP is the best on the slate as well. Minnesota’s active roster has a 111 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of last season, but it has also struck out 23% of the time. Lopez is a strong option at $9,100 on DraftKings as well. He has the second-highest strikeout percentage on the slate at 29.2% and has produced a 3.53 xFIP. One potential concern for Lopez is that he has only struck out 23.7% of lefties compared to 33.7% of righties, and it will likely be a predominantly left-handed lineup for Boston. Still, Lopez has held lefties to a .314 xwOBA and .145 xISO this season. The Twins do offer cheap upside despite the difficult matchup, as their entire projected lineup is $3,700 or less on DraftKings, with the exceptions of Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly) at Milwaukee Brewers (Corbin Burnes)
This is another game with two good pitching options facing each other. Burnes got off to a slow start this season but has turned things around recently, with at least six innings and at least seven strikeouts in four straight starts. He has a tough matchup, as Arizona’s active roster has a 108 wRC+ and 19.5% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season, but the talent and upside is certainly there for Burnes. Kelly has increased his strikeout percentage to 26.9% this season, and he gets a favorable strikeout matchup, as Milwaukee’s active roster has struck out 23.6% of the time and has a 96 wRC+ in 2023. Christian Walker is a sneaky one-off candidate, as Burnes has allowed a .201 xISO to right-handed hitters this season while holding lefties to an xISO below .100.
Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney) at Chicago White Sox (Jesse Scholtens)
There is not a confirmed starter for the White Sox, but the expectation as of now is Scholtens. Heaney offers strikeout upside at just $7,500, but he is also risky, as he will have to deal with plenty of right-handed power in this lineup. Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Jake Burger are all very strong plays at reasonable prices against Heaney. The Rangers will most likely project as the second- or third-best stack on the slate once there is a run total for this game. Scholtens has been good at limiting power in a small sample this season, but the Rangers have a 122 wRC+ and .193 ISO against righties this season, so there is a good chance his numbers will take a hit today.
New York Mets (Max Scherzer) at Houston Astros (Hunter Brown)
Brown is an interesting GPP play tonight at $200 more expensive than Burnes. He has a tough matchup against a Mets team that has a 104 wRC+ and 20.2% strikeout percentage this season, but it is not any more difficult than Burnes’ matchup with Arizona. Brown’s 3.17 xFIP is second best on the slate to Paxton, and his 27.1% strikeout percentage only trails Paxton and Lopez. Despite the similar projections and matchups for Brown and Burnes, Brown is currently projected for 16.2% ownership compared to 28.5% for Burnes. Scherzer has not been as dominant as usual this season, producing a 4.21 xFIP to date, but he still has a respectable 25.3% strikeout percentage. He has a tough matchup against the Astros, but their lineup is weaker than usual thanks to the absence of Yordan Alvarez. Scherzer is currently projected to be the second-most popular pitcher on DraftKings, behind Burnes.
San Diego Padres (Michael Wacha) at San Francisco Giants (Ryan Walker/Jakob Junis)
This is probably the least appealing game on the slate, as it features a competent pitcher in Wacha facing a bullpen game for San Francisco. Wacha is a viable SP2 pivot away from Scherzer and Heaney, who are pulling most of the ownership in that price range, but he has a tough matchup against the Giants. San Francisco has a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, though it also has struck out 24.7% of the time. One thing working in Wacha’s favor is that he has an excellent changeup that helps to limit left-handed hitters. As a result, he has struck out 25% of lefties compared to 21.9% of righties, and the Giants lineup will most likely be lefty heavy. The Padres are a viable stack since most teams on this slate are in less-than-ideal spots, and they have a lot of talent in their lineup, but it is a tough spot in about 60-degree weather in a park that limits power.
