We have another huge Friday slate on deck, with 14 games to sort through. As such, Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections are going to be essential as we sift through all the options to find leverage spots. Here we will use those as well as the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools to hit some MLB DFS value plays like Joe Ryan in the ultimate strikeout spot against Detroit.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 16
Miami Marlins (Sandy Alcantara) at Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams)
Alcantara is a secondary pitching option, as he gets a matchup against a weak offense that is also difficult to strike out. He has struggled a bit this season compared to last season, striking out just 20.6% of hitters and posting a 4.22 xFIP, but Alcantara is also reasonably priced at $9,100 on DraftKings. Miami is fourth in Stack Score, with a 5% chance of being the top scoring stack and a 7% chance of being the top value stack. Williams has struggled with power this season, allowing a .241 xISO to righties and a .224 xISO to lefties. Jorge Soler and Jesus Sanchez have xISOs north of .200 against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
New York Yankees (Domingo German) at Boston Red Sox (Tanner Houck)
Houck’s biggest weakness this season has been left-handed power, which points to Jake Bauers and Anthony Rizzo in particular. As a whole, New York ranks first in Stack Score, with a 5.5% chance of being the top stack and a 7% chance of being the top value stack. German has also had issues with left-handed power, allowing a .210 xISO to lefties this season. Boston has plenty of left-handed power, with Rafael Devers and Masataka Yoshida standing out, but they are also expensive.
St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas) at New York Mets (Tylor Megill)
Neither offense is an easy strikeout matchup for the opposing pitcher, and both offenses rank in the middle of the pack in Stack Score. They are both projected to be slightly under-owned, but neither stands out as a top play. The biggest weakness for either of the two pitchers is Megill’s .189 xISO to right-handed hitters, which makes Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado look good from the Cardinals.
Colorado Rockies (Dinelson Lamet) at Atlanta Braves (Jared Shuster)
The Braves are the best offense tonight, as they currently have a 6.5 implied run total. They will be popular, but there is a ton of upside here. There is also some risk, however. Lamet was a talented young pitcher years ago for the Padres before he dealt with several injuries. He has not thrown more than 1,000 pitches in a season since 2020, but he has never been bad when healthy. This season he has held righties to a .114 xISO and lefties to a .150 xISO while striking out 21.3% of lefties and 24.5% of righties. It is a high-upside spot since the 2023 version of Lamet is still an unknown and there is a weak bullpen behind him, but Lamet may be a solid pitcher. Colorado ranks in the middle of the pack in Stack Score against Shuster.
Toronto Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman) at Texas Rangers (Martin Perez)
This sets up as a nice spot for the Blue Jays bats. Globe Life Field has been 7% above average for right-handed home runs since it opened, and there is a ton of right-handed power in the Jays lineup. Perez has had some issues with righties this season, allowing a .177 xISO and .352 xwOBA. Gausman is a high-end pitching option, as he has struck out 33.2% of hitters and has a 2.73 xFIP this season. He will have his work cut out for him, however, against a Texas club that ranks third in wRC+, fifth in ISO and 16th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers this season.
Detroit Tigers (Will Vest/Tyler Alexander) at Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan)
Ryan has a great matchup, as Detroit’s active roster has the fifth-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season while also producing a league-worst 78 wRC+. Ryan has been excellent this season, striking out 27.3% of hitters while only walking 4.9% and posting a 3.72 xFIP. Digging deeper, he has struck out 31.9% of righties compared to just 21.8% of lefties. He has been excellent at preventing production to both sides of the plate, but the strikeout stuff against righties has been elite. The Tigers projected lineup features six righties, making this spot even more appealing for Ryan. Minnesota hitters have a favorable matchup as well, as Alexander has allowed a .199 xISO and .344 xwOBA to righties and a .245 xISO and .343 xwOBA to lefties since the start of last season. The Twins are sixth in Stack Score, with a 3.7% chance of being the highest-scoring stack and a 7.5% chance of being the best value.
Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott) at Houston Astros (J.P. France)
France has been a mediocre pitcher with a 20.5% strikeout percentage and 4.42 xFIP this season, but he is only $7,000 on DraftKings and the Reds only have a 3.7 implied run total, so he is a good mid-range option. Abbott has not given up a run through his first two starts, but he will have his work cut out for him tonight against Houston. The Astros are a middle-of-the-road stack, with a 3.9% chance of being the top scorer and a 2.7% chance of being the best value stack.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Rich Hill) at Milwaukee Brewers (Julio Teheran)
This game only has an 8.5 total, but there is a lot of volatility here, as these pitchers both have “absolutely awful” within their range of outcomes. Hill has allowed a .240 xISO and .377 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season and is likely to be facing eight of them. Teheran, meanwhile, has been competent through his first handful of starts, but he is not getting strikeouts and has not even been in baseball the last few years. This park is also 11% better than league average for home runs to both lefties and righties over the last three seasons. If looking for pitching options, Hill is viable against a strikeout-prone Milwaukee lineup, but it is certainly risky.
Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval) at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Singer is a little underpriced at $6,100 from a talent standpoint, but he is not a must tonight with 27 other pitchers to choose from. The Angels are one of the top stacks to target, as they have a 5.2 implied run total and rank second in Stack Score. Singer’s biggest issue has been left-handed power, so Shohei Ohtani looks like one of the best hitting plays on the slate, as usual. Sandoval has been decent at limiting power this season, but he has not been getting strikeouts. The Royals are extremely inexpensive outside of Bobby Witt Jr., but it is tough to get too excited about them since their next-best hitters are Nick Pratto and M.J. Melendez, who are both left-handed. Sandoval has held lefties to a .058 xISO this season.
Cleveland Guardians (Triston McKenzie) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen)
Gallen does not project very well for his salary, but it is unclear why. He has a 27% strikeout percentage and 3.29 xFIP this season. The Guardians are a tough team to strike out, but they are also the fourth-worst offense against right-handed pitching this season. Gallen is currently projected for 3% ownership, which makes him a very interesting GPP option. McKenzie is an interesting tournament option as well, as he appears to be close to fully stretched out going into his third start since returning from injury. McKenzie made adjustments last season that cut his walk rate in half while only losing a couple points off his strikeout percentage. He has a tough matchup, so he is not a priority, but he has plenty of talent for an $8,600 salary.
Philadelphia Phillies (Taijuan Walker) at Oakland Athletics (J.P. Sears)
Walker is a secondary pitching option in a favorable matchup at $7,000. Philadelphia has plenty of right-handed power against Sears, who has allowed a .248 xISO to righties this season, but the Oakland Coliseum ranks second worst in home run park factor for right-handed hitters over the last three seasons, so it is hard to get too excited.
Tampa Bay Rays (Shane McClanahan) at San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish)
Two strong pitchers will be facing off in this one. Darvish has a brutal matchup, as the Rays are first in wRC+, second in ISO and 21st in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season. He projects to be extremely popular on DraftKings, however, because he is only $8,100. Darvish has struck out 26.2% of hitters and has a 3.81 xFIP this season, so this is a bit of a mispricing. McClanahan, on the other hand, is not getting much ownership despite a 27.8% strikeout percentage and 3.62 xFIP because most of the field will look to Gausman in his price range. Tampa Bay is a really intriguing tournament stack. They have a low probability of success, but the best offense in baseball is facing a 33%-owned pitcher and nobody is going to roster them.
San Francisco Giants (John Brebbia/Sean Manaea) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Emmet Sheehan)
Sheehan is making his major league debut straight from Double-A. He is not in the player pool, but he put up excellent numbers at Double-A, with about a 41% strikeout percentage this season. Who knows what to expect in anyone’s first MLB appearance, so there is some merit to staking the Giants and hoping nerves get to Sheehan, but it looks like a tough spot for the Giants. It is more appealing for Dodgers bats, as Manaea has struggled with power to both sides of the plate this season. This issue with Los Angeles is that the desirable hitters are all very expensive.
Chicago White Sox (Michael Kopech) at Seattle Mariners (Bryan Woo)
Kopech has posted impressive strikeout numbers lately, striking out at least six hitters in five straight and at least nine in four of those games. The uptick in strikeouts coincided with rumors that he was tipping pitches, so the strikeouts may keep coming. He is $9,300 on DraftKings, however, so he is only a secondary option, as most roster builds will prefer either paying up to a better pitcher or paying down to a better value. Speaking of better values, $5,400 Woo is arguably the best pitching play on the slate. His 8.1% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher is ninth best on the slate, and his 27.1% chance of being a top-2 value is the best on the slate — more than twice as likely as any other pitcher. Woo has made two appearances for the Mariners, and in that limited sample, his strikeout stuff has played at the highest level. Most of his time this year was at Double-A, where he struck out 34.3% of hitters in nine starts.
