A full day of baseball gives us plenty of chances to find value in the MLB player prop and projections market. Using MLB Bet Pro, we’re going to do just that to identify three of the top MLB player prop picks on the board, ranging from Underdog Fantasy to BetMGM and FanDuel.
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Today’s top projections focus on Dylan Cease, Kyle Bradish and Justin Verlander. They’re all unders. Keep reading! Unders can make us money, too!
Remember, these are just three of the plays that Bet Pro has a positive-EV on. In total, right now, there are over 125 bets on the market with at least a 1% edge. There are 14 with a 10% edge or higher!
MLB Player Prop Picks & Projections (July 1)
Dylan Cease Under 7.5 Strikeouts (Underdog, -122)
Dylan Cease…under strikeouts…against the Oakland Athletics? Crazy, right? Not as crazy as you’d think.
Oakland has struck out more than all but four teams in baseball this year, so that part is scary. But the A’s are cutting down on strikeouts recently. They’re 9th-worst over the last 30 days (still bad) but in the last two weeks, Oakland is 21st in strikeouts. That’s at least something.
This is mostly about Cease, though. For all the talent, the right-hander often struggles to pitch deep into games due to high pitch counts. He’s cleared this number in each of his last three games, but we’re projected that to hit closer to the mean.
He failed to clear 7.5 strikeouts in 12 of his previous 13 starts before this recent streak. Bet Pro projects Cease for 6.2 strikeouts, giving it a 64% chance to win with a 16% expected value over the long run.
Kyle Bradish, Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135, BetMGM)
Another regression candidate back, Kyle Bradish gets an advantageous matchup against the team with more strikeouts than anyone this year: the Minnesota Twins.
And on the surface, the over should be the play, right? He’s cleared this number in three of his last four starts. But take away those three overs, and he’s stayed under in the 11 other starts.
Bet Pro projects Bradish for 5.3 strikeouts, which results in a 65% winning percentage and 14% expected value at BetMGM.
Justin Verlander, Under 6.5 Strikeouts (FanDuel)
This has been a cash-cow for Bet Pro this season, with Verlander going under in four straight starts and eight of his 10 starts. He’s just one part of the problem for the Mets, but their problem is our gain.
Verlander isn’t a pumpkin but he might be close. His strikeout rate is 7% worse than last year and 15% worse than his peak in 2019 (in the Statcast Era at least). His walks are up, he’s giving up more hard contact than ever and his fastball velocity is ticking down.
The trends are going the wrong way for the 40-year-old. Bet Pro projects him to finish with 5.7 strikeouts against the Giants on Saturday. That’s a 59% win percentage and a 15% expected value at FanDuel.
