MLB Player Props: A Lot of Value in Charlie Morton's Strikeouts (July 31)

The new MLB week starts with a 10-game slate and some odd lines coming in across the industry. That is leading to some strong value spots in the MLB Bet Pro model and thus some great opportunities to make money via MLB player props. Let’s dive into the best plays for Monday, July 31, including a couple of pitchers getting pretty high lines (too high maybe?).

But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has dozens of other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!

Free MLB Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | July 31

3. Nick Pivetta O/U 6.5 Strikeouts

After a couple of high-strikeout games earlier this month, Pivetta has quieted down to just a strikeout per inning, rather than the two he was putting up. It is a bit hard to gauge Pivetta as a starter since he has not been one since May 16. Instead, he has been Boston’s long reliever, recording high-end strikeout numbers in the process (29.4%, 11.1 per nine). That said, Pivetta made eight starts at the beginning of this season and only struck out seven-plus one time. It is perfectly reasonable to expect his whiff rates to drop a bit as he goes faces a lineup multiple times, even if that lineup is the Seattle Mariners and their 26.2% strikeout percentage (second highest in MLB).

It is also worth noting that the reason Pivetta was moved to the bullpen was his affinity for getting shelled in starts. He allowed three earned runs or more in all but one of the eight and at least four runs in four of those. There is blowup potential and longevity concerns, so take the under. MLB Bet Pro projects Pivetta for 5.6 strikeouts and a 55% chance of falling short of 6.5.

Best MLB Player Prop: Nick Pivetta Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-112, FanDuel)

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2. Jean Segura O/U 1.5 Total Bases

It has been a truly brutal season for Segura at the plate. He is somehow managing to hold onto a starting spot in the lineup despite being a below-replacement player on a Marlins team that would make the playoffs if the season ended today — and he is rewarding Miami’s grace by batting .222 with a 56 OPS+ (44% below league average). The month of July has been slightly better but only enough to get Segura a couple ticks above the Mendoza line. He still only has three extra-base hits this month and is slugging well below his career average.

Segura is averaging exactly one total base per game in 2023, and he has gone over 1.5 total bases in just 26.8% of games this season. In other words, the only reason his total bases line is 1.5 today is because of reputation. The matchup with Taijuan Walker is about neutral, so MLB Bet Pro is projecting Segura for his season average of 1.0 total base. That gives the under on 1.5 a whopping 68% win expectancy and solid 4% EV despite massive juice at -190.

Best MLB Player Prop: Jean Segura Under 1.5 Total Bases (-190, PointsBet)

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1. Charlie Morton O/U 7.5 Strikeouts

Fading an elite strikeout pitcher with a 7.5 line worked out yesterday, and MLB Bet Pro is liking a similar play today. Morton is not putting up quite the rates Jesus Luzardo has been, down to 9.5 per nine innings and 24.3% overall, but his results in recent seasons are leading to a line commensurate with some of the best pitchers in the game. Morton has gone over 7.5 in just six of 20 starts this year and zero times since June 18. And though 9.5 strikeouts per nine is a good mark, that pace would get Morton his eighth strikeout in the eighth inning, where he has thrown exactly zero pitches in 2023.

Now, the Angels being injured in key spots and posting a high-ish strikeout rate is enough to boost Morton’s projection a little, but 7.5 is too much. MLB Bet Pro projects him for only 6.4 strikeouts and gives the under a slate-high 6% EV.

Best MLB Player Prop: Charlie Morton Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125, PointsBet)

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.