Since the dawn of time, running back has been the most important position for fantasy football drafts. With training camps almost here, let’s get into this year’s running backs most likely to bust for 2023 NFL Best Ball leagues, using projections and Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings.
Looking for more NFL Best Ball rankings and content? You are in the right place! Check out all of Stokastic’s Best Ball stories and videos for free. Premium subscribers also get access to Stokastic’s Best Ball rankings — and the underlying projections that power them. Sign up for Stokastic’s Best Ball and season-long fantasy football package for the flat rate of $39.95!
2023 NFL Best Ball Running Backs
Best Ball Running Back: David Montgomery (Detroit Lions)
David Montgomery has an ADP of 78.8 on Underdog Fantasy. This puts him at RB24 on the platform, which ranks just ahead of Rachaad White, James Conner and Isaiah Pacheco. With touchdown leader Jamaal Williams off to New Orleans in free agency, the Lions signed Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million dollar contract, which they can get out of after two years without much penalty.
The problem with ranking Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery at RB13 and RB24 does not have anything to do with each player individually. They are both simply getting drafted at their ceiling. The Detroit Lions will be better in 2023; their win total has climbed to 9.5, with -120 juice on the over. However, sustaining two top-24 running backs is much easier said than done. For reference, the Lions were the only team to do this last year, and it took 17 rushing touchdowns from Williams to get there. Williams finished as the RB8, and Swift was RB22 in half-PPR.
As for Montgomery individually, there is more downside than Gibbs. First of all, the Lions drafted Gibbs at 12th overall, suggesting a heavy workload immediately for him. Montgomery will play the Williams role, which is touchdown reliant. With that said, it is no guarantee that Montgomery will get 100% of those high-value carries. If this becomes a split in any way, Gibbs immediately will be the back to draft over Montgomery.
With the field ridiculously bullish on both Detroit backs on Underdog Fantasy, Stokastic’s rankings peg Gibbs as the RB16 and Montgomery as the RB32. With more downside on the Montgomery profile, he embodies the dead-zone running back.
Best Ball Running Back: Kenneth Walker (Seattle Seahawks)
Kenneth Walker has an ADP of 52.6, making him the RB16 in Underdog drafts. This puts him just ahead of Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins and Alexander Mattison. With that said, drafters finally began drafting Joe Mixon just ahead of Dobbins.
As a rookie in 2022, Walker turned in an efficient season, rushing for 1,050 yards and nine touchdowns on 228 attempts. He also caught 27 passes for another 165 yards while playing 15 games. This put him as the RB16 overall last year and the RB14 in points per game. Despite this efficient play, Seattle still saw the need to spend a second-round pick on Zach Charbonnet from UCLA.
Charbonnet is 6-foot-0, 214 pounds, and ran a solid 4.53 40-yard dash. He rushed 195 times for 1,359 yards and 14 touchdowns in his final year of college, along with catching 37 passes for 321 yards. He also posted efficiency numbers that rivaled Walker the previous year.
Similar to Detroit, drafters are snagging Walker as the RB16 and Charbonnet as the RB33, with an unknown split. Seattle passed the ball 59.4% of the time last year (13th), deviating from their run-heavy ways. Ultimately, this team still expects to be solid and has an 8.5-win total. However, both Walker and Charbonnet are coming off the board slightly early and likely will need an injury from the other to hit a ceiling.
Stokastic’s rankings currently slot in Walker as the RB18 and Charbonnet as the RB41. Both come in behind ADP.
Still haven’t registered for Underdog Fantasy’s Best Ball Mania IV? You’re missing out on a lot of fun, but don’t worry — first-time users at Underdog can still get their first deposit matched up to $100! Check out the special offers widget above for more details and disclaimers.
Best Ball Running Back: A.J. Dillon (Green Bay Packers)
Green Bay Packers running back A.J. Dillon has an ADP of 102.2, making him the RB34 drafted on average. This puts Dillon ahead of Samaje Perine, Rashaad Penny and Brian Robinson. However, the offensive expectations have changed severely in Green Bay, pointing to some bust potential for Dillon.
With Aaron Rodgers under center last year, Dillon still managed a mediocre 770 yards and seven touchdowns on 186 carries. He also caught just 28 of 43 targets for 206 yards in the pass game. In total, Jones finished as the RB9 in points per game, while Dillon lagged at RB36 last year.
From an efficiency perspective, Dillon also struggled. His 2.90 yards after contact ranked 26th among 46 qualifiers last year. He also forced just 23 missed tackles, which ranked 35th among that same group. Considering Dillon weighs 250 pounds, these numbers are putrid.
Finally, the changes in Green Bay project to benefit Jones more than Dillon. Dillon is not a strong pass catcher, evidenced by his five drops last year. The Packers’ win total has dropped to 7.5 without Rodgers. More time trailing likely means more Jones on the field over Dillon. Dillon currently slots in at RB35 in Stokastic’s rankings, which puts him behind ADP on Underdog Fantasy.
