MLB Player Props: Burnes, Ohtani on Star-Studded Slate (July 14)

Baseball is back after a long layoff for the All-Star game, and MLB Bet Pro is chock-full of high-EV props to help boost your bank roll. Today is a pitcher-happy slate; three high-end starters in particular are getting the same strikeout line, and MLB Bet Pro likes all three of their props today. Let’s dive into the best free MLB player props, picks, and predictions for Friday and decide whether to back or fade these star arms.

But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!

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Free MLB Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | July 14

3. Shohei Ohtani O/U 6.5 Strikeouts

There are few better strikeout pitchers than Ohtani on a hitter-to-hitter basis. His strikeout rates are 32.4% (third among starters) and 11.8 per nine (fourth), and he has struck out seven or more in 10 of 17 starts this year. Longevity is also not a major issue despite Ohtani’s offensive responsibilities, as he has gone at least six innings in 13 of 17 games and eclipsed 6.5 strikeouts in nine of those. The thing that may hold Ohtani back is his tendency to blow up occasionally — he has allowed four or more earned runs five times and fell shy of this line in three of those starts. But as long as he makes it through six, Ohtani is usually good for this line.

The Astros do not strike out a ton, but they also are basically a league-average offense without Yordan Alvarez. And though they did get to Ohtani for two home runs in a June start, he still managed six strikeouts, just missing this over. So Ohtani will at least get close to 6.5 even when the Astros hit him. That said, MLB Bet Pro does not project this to be that tight, tabbing Ohtani for 7.7 strikeouts.

Best MLB Player Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112, BetRivers)

2. Eduardo Rodriguez O/U 6.5 Strikeouts

This will only be Rodriguez’s second start since May; in his first one on July 5, he went just four innings and allowed five earned runs, though he did strike out seven in the process. It was the worst start of the year for a pitcher who put up All-Star numbers before suffering an injury.

Now there are questions about Rodriguez’s health and how stretched out he is. He only threw 79 pitches in his return, and with the long All-Star layoff, there has not been much opportunity for Rodriguez to build up more stamina. Plus, even with how good he was early in the season, Rodriguez has only struck out seven or more in five of 12 starts. The Mariners are a strikeout-prone team, but the uncertainty about Rodriguez’s ability to go deep enough tonight has MLB Bet Pro projecting him for just 5.4 punchouts. That gives the under on 6.5 a 64% win expectancy.

Best MLB Player Prop: Eduardo Rodriguez Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-136, FanDuel)

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1. Corbin Burnes O/U 6.5 Strikeouts

This sets up as decent strikeout spot for Burnes, as the Reds whiff at a rate slightly above league average and Burnes’ strikeout numbers have been a little better over the last month and a half. However, that is leading to plus money on under 6.5 strikeouts, and MLB Bet Pro‘s projections are actually pretty comfortably favoring that side here despite the matchup.

Burnes has hit this over in fewer than half his games this season (8 of 18, 44.4%), and last month he went 1-for-2 on 6.5 strikeouts in two starts against these Reds. He danced around the line in those two games, with six in one and seven in the other. The other thing to note from those matchups is Burnes walked four Reds in each game. In fact, his walk rate this season is the highest of his career as a starter, his strikeout rate is by far his lowest, and he is also allowing more hits and runs than he ever has. Burnes is certainly not a bad pitcher, but he is not dominant right now. At a rate of 8.6 strikeouts per nine, he needs to go 7.1 innings to punch out seven, which he has done twice this year.

MLB Bet Pro projects Burnes for 5.8 strikeouts and gives the under a slate-high 18% EV.

Best MLB Player Prop: Corbin Burnes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100, PointsBet)

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.