Friday launches the second half of the season with a gigantic 14-game main slate and a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo MLB DFS picks today, including the Tampa Bay offense and RHP Tyler Glasnow up against the Royals in Kansas City, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays taking batting practice in Toronto against RHP Ryne Nelson.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Primary Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo vs. Detroit Tigers — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $9,700 | Yahoo $41
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool feels underappreciated as the season resumes since most of the rotations have now been reset back to the aces for today and through the weekend. After not pitching in the All-Star Game, RHP Luis Castillo has had a full week off since holding the Astros to just one earned run across seven innings in Houston last Friday. Tonight he gets a matchup against a Detroit squad that has slowly been crawling out of basement when it comes to success against right-handed hurlers.
Since the beginning of last season, the current Detroit batsmen have compiled an 85 wRC+ against righties, which is the second lowest. When narrowing the parameters to just the first half of this season, they creep up to a 90 wRC+, and while that is still a bottom-5 figure, it is dramatically better than where they began.
Strikeouts are still plentiful, with the projected lineup carrying a 26.1% rate against right-handed pitching over the last two years, along with an anemic .120 ISO. Kerry Carpenter is the only hitter with an ISO of .160 or better during this timeframe, while Andy Ibanez (18.1%) and Miguel Cabrera (22.8%) are the only hitters below a 23% strikeout rate.
Castillo’s strikeout rate is in line with his 9.8-per-nine career average, and while his 1.26 home runs per nine innings are the most of the last five seasons, that should not be a concern for this matchup. The Mariners are nearly 2-1 favorites tonight to garner the win, and their 30-year-old ace should also be in line for a quality start, which is key for earning the FanDuel bonus.
Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Kenta Maeda at Oakland Athletics — 2.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $7,200 | Yahoo $36
In three starts since returning from a triceps injury, RHP Kenta Maeda has allowed just three runs — two of them being unearned — across 17 innings while notching 21 strikeouts. Yes, two of the games were against Detroit and Kansas City, but he also held his own in a road game against Atlanta.
Tonight’s matchup is pristine against the Athletics in Oakland, which presents not only a ballpark upgrade for the 35-year-old hurler, but also a matchup against one of the most pitiful offenses in the league. Maeda tallied 83, 82 and then 87 pitches in his last trio of tilts, and he should be in that range again tonight. That makes him one of the best point-per-dollar options, and it is clear the salary algorithms are overweighting his 10 earned runs in three innings of work prior to his injury layoff.
The Athletics have plated the fewest runners in the league this season, and they are eight behind Kansas City and 17 behind Detroit. It should be no surprise that the A’s are last in total bases, with a .221/.299/.353 triple slash line that also features the lowest average and slugging percentage this year.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow at Kansas City Royals — 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $10,100 | Yahoo $48
Technically RHP Tyler Glasnow should be the secondary option and Maeda the Wild Card. However, the salary chasm between this duo and the potential for precipitation in Kansas City have the Rays righty slipping a slot. Glasnow left his last start with a cramp in his left hand, but it should not impact him tonight. Tampa Bay has not pushed Mr. Glasnow much beyond 85 to 89 pitches, though he did toss 102 in Seattle against the Mariners back on July 1.
The most appealing thing about the 29-year-old is his 13.8 strikeouts per nine innings for the season. While he will allow his share of longballs while challenging hitters, Glasnow brings so much fantasy goodness that we can overlook the one performance weakness.
This season the Royals projected lineup has only two hitters with a .150 ISO or better against right-handed pitching, with four batsmen striking out north of 28%. Tampa Bay is currently listed as a -300 favorite to land a victory tonight, so if the Rays bats can get it going early, Glasnow should be able to close out the fifth inning and be in line for the win bonus.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Toronto Blue Jays vs. RHP Ryne Nelson — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
Just when it looked like RHP Ryne Nelson had turned a corner, he fell into his old habits of leaving too many pitches over the plate. Prior to his meltdown of seven earned runs in three innings against the Mets last Thursday, the 25-year-old put together a three-start stretch in Milwaukee, San Francisco and Anaheim where he had a sterling 2.33 ERA, 3.38 FIP and 18 strikeouts across 19.1 innings, accompanied by 18 strikeouts. He has decent stuff across the board, but nothing in his repertoire is going to wow anyone. Expect to see him in The Show for the next decade as a back-of-the-rotation option, and continue to target at will when he is facing power-laden lineups.
For his career, Nelson has ceded a .232 ISO against 233 opposite-handed batsmen, while righties have also done damage. Brandon Belt is a prime option tonight, even though it will cost us the first base slot on DraftKings ($3,100) and Yahoo ($9). Sadly, outfielders Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier are the only other lefties in the lineup.
Fortunately, that verklempt feeling will be short-lived when realizing that Bo Bichette, George Springer, Matt Chapman and reigning Home Run Derby champion Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are all outstanding in same-handed matchups. Considering the Yankees are in Coors Field and a trio of terrible pitchers in RHP Michael Kopech at Atlanta, RHP Graham Ashcraft versus Milwaukee and RHP Trevor Williams at St. Louis is also on the docket, the overall popularity of the Toronto offense is barely a blip on the radar.
Evening Slate Target: Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Alec Marsh — 5.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool loves the Tampa Bay offense, and it is popping in all metrics tonight against RHP Alec Marsh. This will be just the third start in The Show for the rookie who has been pressed into action with RHPs Zack Greinke and Brad Keller on the injured list, and frankly he is probably as good as, if not better than, struggling Jordan Lyles. Kansas City has a weak and overworked bullpen, which was not helped by dealing RHP Aroldis Chapman.
DraftKings and Yahoo have at least boosted the salaries for most of the key hitters in the Tampa offense, but there should not be too much of a challenge navigating this path with the cheap pitching options highlighted above. Yandy Diaz is on the paternity list, but the All-Star’s absence just means a discounted bat will be in the lineup taking his place.
The Rays have the second-best record in the league, behind only Atlanta, and they are tops in the American League with a two-game lead over Baltimore and a five-game cushion ahead of Texas. The team has posted top-3 marks in home runs, total bases and steals. Seven different hitters have 11 or more home runs, and Wander Franco (28), Taylor Walls (20) and Josh Lowe (19) have been running wild on the base paths.
Isaac Paredes should be in a prominent batting order position with Diaz away from the team, making him a nice differentiation option, as his elevated salary on Yahoo ($21) and overall lack of name recognition are likely to have gamers skipping the super-utility infielder.
Luke Raley has been stellar and actually leads the team with his .573 slugging while contributing 32 extra-base hits, 15 home runs and nine steals. This is rather impressive considering he has only 125 career games under his belt. The soon-to-be 29-year-old is a bit of a late-bloomer, though he has already become a mainstay in the middle of the order.
Randy Arozarena is coming off his first All-Star appearance, and he rounds out the obvious options. For differentiation, Jose Siri has some serious pop in his bat and rookie Jonathan Aranda stands out as a minimum salary player across the main DFS sites. Catcher Christian Bethancourt is a solid way to check that box on DraftKings and Yahoo. Finally, even slumping Brandon Lowe is worthy of our attention, as his demotion from the middle of the order and falling salary make him a viable lottery ticket.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP J.P. France — 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
On the late slate, it will be interesting to see how many gamers end up angling towards the Angels. Mike Trout is out with a broken wrist, and, of course, the DFS sites apparently do not have the technology to offer RHP Shohei Ohtani as a hitter when he is also the starting pitcher. Clearly they will not be overlooked, with the highest team total among the six squads in the player pool, but differentiation is clearly available for those savvy gamers who seek it out.
Rookie RHP J.P. France has been solid for the injury-ravaged Astros, and he has allowed more than three runs only twice in his 11 starts and no more than three in his last half dozen appearances. The main knock is the lack of strikeouts, which tends to keep opposing teams seemingly on the verge of a big inning at all times. In his last 39.1 innings, France has just 22 punchouts, which is far from intimidating, even for the K-happy Halos.
Veterans Hunter Renfroe and Taylor Ward will be popular in the top half of the order, along with rookie Mickey Moniak. Oft-injured Anthony Rendon will likely be in the cleanup slot or the three-hole, but skipping the slumping veteran is an easy way to gain differentiation from other Anaheim stacks.
It will be interesting to see if both Mike Moustakas and Eduardo Escobar find their way into the lineup, though the former is likely to lose out to Rendon, while the latter at least should corral an infield slot with his glove work and switch-hitting skills at the plate.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
While it is rarely fun rooting for unders, it does make one feel alive. Tonight RHP Brayan Bello looks like intriguing option in the sports wagering market tonight. The new True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows Bello is -160 to stay below the six strikeouts needed to win the under on 5.5 that is currently posted on most sportsbooks. We can see that the “true” odds are closer to -200, which is like getting a 6% to 7% boost due to an inefficient line. Typically these will tighten up as more bets come in and other books post their odds. The 5.5 milestone is unlikely to change, but the -160 is likely to push closer to -200 throughout the day.
Across his 14 starts, the 24-year-old right-hander has six or more strikeouts on four occasions (8, 6, 7 and 6). The projected lineup for the Cubs has a 22.5% strikeout rate against righties over the last season-plus, but during that same timeframe, Bello has struck out hitters just 20.7% of the time. Furthermore, Bello has a paltry 16.2% strikeout rate against lefties, and there are five projected to be in the Chicago lineup tonight.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, July 14 | MLB DFS Picks
There are weather issues up and down the East Coast as well as in the Midwest. Kansas City and St. Louis look to have the best chance of getting games in, with Chicago all but sure to be dodging rain drops and hopefully showers for the latter portion of the game. Atlanta, Baltimore and New York are looking at humidity showers, though the coverage area is not certain at this time. Be sure to keep tabs for updates from your favorite DFS weather sources, as there are plenty of “weather safe” games on Friday’s gargantuan 14-game slate.
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