A 2-1 night on Thursday is certainly workable — the only miss was the highly risky play on a bad pitcher getting a spot start. Today MLB Bet Pro is sticking with some players who have a bit more track record from which to work, and these guys are all earning expected ROIs north of 15%. Without further ado, let’s analyze the best MLB player props for Friday — like a struggling star failing to make waves with his new team.
Please note that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | June 9
3. Ben Lively Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+105, DraftKings)
Lively has been pretty effective as an innings eater this year. Despite nominally being the fourth or fifth starter for the Reds since moving out of the bullpen last month, he leads the rotation in ERA and has made it into the sixth inning in all four of his starts. And he is not merely surviving — Lively has struck out at least five in all four starts as well. Now, his 4.33 FIP against a 3.03 ERA suggests he is getting a bit lucky in terms of runs allowed, but the strikeouts and longevity are there right now.
This is not a great matchup for Lively, as the Cardinals are better than league average in strikeout rate and power numbers. That said, one of Lively’s two eight-strikeout games this year came against St. Louis three starts ago, and he made it through six innings despite allowing two home runs. MLB Bet Pro projects Lively for 5.5 in this matchup and gives the over on 4.5 a 57% win expectancy.
2. Logan Allen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118, PrizePicks)
Keep in mind that all odds are implied -118 on PrizePicks.
Despite their reputation, the Astros have not exactly been chasing pitchers from games all that much this year. They rank near the bottom of the league in strikeout rate, but they are also below league average by most other hitting metrics. And yes, the Astros do improve against lefties, dropping their team strikeout rate to about 17% and increasing their ISO about 30 points; that said, this is a tough pitcher for them.
Allen has proven to be very steady this year. He has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any game (eight starts), he has made it through at least five innings in all but one, and he has hit this over in five of eight. That includes a 10-strikeout game against a solid Orioles lineup just two starts ago. Good lineups have struggled to get to Allen, and this Astros lineup is not nearly as fearsome as it seems. MLB Bet Pro projects Allen for 6.0 strikeouts against them, leading to a 16% expected win rate and a huge 18% EV.
1. Trea Turner Under 1.5 Total Bases (-122, Underdog)
Turner’s batting average and on-base percentages have been on a steady downward trajectory all season. He is starting to improve his power a little bit, but that is still only amounting to a five-year-low .154 ISO, plus slugging and hard-hit rates that are his worst since his rookie season. It does not matter much to MLB Bet Pro that Turner’s matchup against Michael Grove is very exploitable (Grove has an 8.14 ERA); Turner’s power numbers against righties are quite poor, with just a .377 slugging and .126 ISO. Also, he is striking out 26.4% of the time against righties and walking just 3.8% of the time.
No matter the opponent, Turner is not seeing the ball well enough against righties to merit an over on 1.5 total bases. MLB Bet Pro gives this bet a whopping 66% win expectancy on Underdog, leading to it earning the only EV north of 20% in the model at the moment.
