The MLB Bet Pro picks are hitting this week, and tonight we get a full slate of games from which to take some strikeout props. Lines are moving and value is going to shift, however, so get these picks in quick. Let’s dive into the best MLB player props in the strikeout market for Friday, June 23.
But remember that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has several other strong value options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Free MLB Strikeout Props From MLB Bet Pro | June 23
3. Emmet Sheehan Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105, BetMGM)
With just one major league start in his career, Sheehan is still a wild card. He is not an elite prospect, ranking fourth among Dodgers pitching prospects on MLB.com and profiling as a mid-rotation starter, but he did go six scoreless innings in his debut. Still, Sheehan only struck out three in that game. And though he averaged 15 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, feelings seem to be somewhat mixed about his punchout stuff at the big league level. This matchup with the Astros is also not great since they strike out at MLB’s seventh-lowest rate.
General concern with Sheehan is his average breaking ball, and if that proves to be a problem, Houston can make pitchers pay. MLB Bet Pro is wary of Sheehan despite a modest line, projecting him for 4.2 strikeouts and giving the under a 55% expected win rate.
2. Logan Gilbert Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-110, BetRivers)
Gilbert’s 4.31 is a bit uninspiring given expectations, but his 1.07 WHIP and 3.60 FIP suggest he is getting unlucky more than anything. Those are both above-average metrics, as are his solid 9.5 strikeouts per nine and 26% strikeout rate. At these clips, Gilbert only needs to go five innings on average to get to five strikeouts; he has gone that distance in 11 of 14 starts and hit five-plus strikeouts in 10 of 14.
Perhaps Gilbert is getting his line bumped down due to pitching on the road against an Orioles team that does not strike out all that often, but 4.5 has gone too far in that direction. MLB Bet Pro projects him for 5.4 strikeouts and to clear 4.5 57% of the time.
1. Kodai Senga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-136, FanDuel)
Senga is in a way the opposite of Gilbert, posting a strong ERA of 3.53 but a WHIP over 1.3 and FIP of 4.24. This suggests that his fielding is actually bailing him out a bit more often. That said, there is no denying Senga’s strike throwing. His 21.7% swinging-strike rate ranks 21st in all of baseball and his 28% looking-strike rate is 18th. This has helped get his strikeout percentage up to 28.3% and his per-nine clip to 11.0 — elite numbers.
The only thing holding Senga back on 5.5 strikeouts being an easy over is his volatility — he has given up at least four runs five times in 13 starts. However, Senga is still 10-for-13 on this over, and the Phillies strike out above league average. This is easily a gettable lineup for Senga.
MLB Bet Pro projects him for seven strikeouts, and the over has a solid 63% win expectancy. But get this one in quickly — the line is almost certain to move.
