There are 10 games tonight, including a Coors Field game, so that means plenty of strong hitting options. Pitching is a bit weaker, so we may have to get creative with the arms to get to the good bats. With the help of Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, let’s dig into some of the best MLB DFS value plays tonight, starting with said Angels-Rockies matchup.
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MLB DFS Advice: | June 23
Game of the Day: Los Angeles Angels at Colorado Rockies
This game is the clear make-or-break game on tonight’s slate. It has an 11.5 total and two of the top three stacks on the slate. The Angels’ top stack percentage in the Top Stacks Tool is currently more than double the next-closest team, as is their stack score. They are also second in top value percentage because, outside of Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, they are not very expensive. They will be facing Kyle Freeland, who has allowed a .220 xISO and .364 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this season and has just a 13.4% strikeout percentage. He has been much better against lefties, but Ohtani is the only left-handed hitter in the Angels’ projected lineup, and he is the best baseball player on the planet, so it does not really matter what Freeland has done against other lefties.
The Rockies are not as appealing or as popular as the Angels, but they still have plenty of upside. They have a 5.2 implied run total against Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval’s strikeout numbers have dropped this season, as he has only struck out 17.3% of the hitters he has faced after striking out 23.7% last year. The Rockies do not have many exciting hitters in their lineup, but they are relatively inexpensive and rank second to the Angels in stack score.
Finally, if not playing the Rockies, Sandoval actually offers upside as a contrarian pitcher in tournaments. Despite his decrease in strikeout percentage, it isn’t crazy to think that his strikeout numbers will improve as the season goes on since he has been well below his career average strikeout percentage of 22.8%. He has struck out at least six hitters in each of his last two starts, and prior to those games, he had only done that one time this year. Sandoval is only $6,800 on DraftKings and is projected for 4% ownership, a 7% chance of being a top-2 scoring pitcher and a 12.5% chance of being a top-2 value pitcher in the Top Pitchers Tool. He is a useful option if trying to find ways to differentiate a popular Angels stack.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Batters
Taylor Ward (LAA): $4,400 on DraftKings
Elias Diaz (COL): $4,200 on DraftKings
Starling Marte (NYM): $3,700 on DraftKings
For more top hitters, check out our Top Batters Tool!
Taylor Ward: Ward is likely to lead off for the Angels tonight against Freeland. He did not get much of a price increase for Coors Field, as he sits at just $4,400 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel. He has a .340 xwOBA and .150 xISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season, and Freeland has allowed a .364 xwOBA to right-handed hitters this year.
Elias Diaz: Diaz looks like one of the best catching options tonight, as he is likely to be hitting in the middle of the order for Colorado against Sandoval. Sandoval has not been bad at limiting power this year, holding right-handed hitters to a .150 xISO, but he has also only struck out 17.7% of righties. Diaz has produced a .330 xwOBA and .177 xISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season.
Starling Marte: Marte is very inexpensive on DraftKings at just $3,700 tonight. He gets a favorable park shift as he faces Taijuan Walker in Philadelphia. Citizens Bank Park has a 106 park factor for right-handed home runs over the last three years, which is the ninth highest in baseball, compared to the Mets’ home of Citi Field, which ranks 21st with a 96 park factor over that time. Walker is a solid pitcher but does allow some power, as righties have a .168 xISO against him this season. Marte also offers stolen base upside in addition to whatever he produces at the plate.
MLB DFS Advice: Top Pitchers
Joe Musgrove (SD): $8,800 on DraftKings
Kodai Senga (NYM): $10,200 on DraftKings
Emmet Sheehan (LAD): $6,500 on DraftKings
For more top pitchers, check out our Top Pitchers Tool!
Joe Musgrove: Musgrove looks like the best combination of projection, ceiling, salary and matchup tonight as he takes on the Nationals in San Diego. Musgrove has not been great this year and has a 20.9% strikeout percentage and 4.17 xFIP, but those numbers make him one of the better pitchers on this particular slate. He has a tough strikeout matchup against Washington, as the Nationals active roster has only struck out 18.4% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, but it also only has a 92 wRC+ and will be playing in a pitcher-friendly park in San Diego.
Kodai Senga: Senga is only projected for 8% ownership in a dangerous matchup against the Phillies, who have about a 4.8 implied run total. Senga is a strong GPP play, however, because his 28.3% strikeout percentage is the highest on the slate and the opportunity cost at pitcher tonight is not very high. There is a case to be made for paying down at pitcher, but Senga is a high-upside way to be contrarian if he can fit into lineups.
Emmet Sheehan: Sheehan did not allow a run in his major league debut, but he also only struck out about 15% of hitters and was extremely lucky on balls in play. He has a tough strikeout matchup tonight against the Astros, but they are missing their best hitter in Yordan Alvarez, so the lineup is considerably weaker. Sheehan struck out about 41% of hitters at Double-A this year and projects for a 22 to 23% strikeout percentage in the majors according to most publicly available models. Since the top-end pitching on tonight’s slate does not inspire much confidence, paying down for Sheehan and hoping for the best is not a bad approach.
