Friday welcomes the end of the workweek with a 10-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. And as always, Stokastic tools are a great help in identifying today’s MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Joe Musgrove vs. Washington Nationals — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $8,900 | Yahoo $45
It seems that the DFS salary algorithms are continuing to punish RHP Joe Musgrove for his 3.1-inning outing where he allowed three home runs and seven earned runs in his second start of the season. The catch, of course, is that April 29 outing was in Mexico City. The 30-year-old missed spring training and the first part of the season while recovering from a fractured toe — suffered by dropping a weight on his left big toe during the offseason.
Over his last eight starts, Musgrove has logged 45 innings, a 3.00 ERA and 3.54 FIP while serving up just a trio of taters. Yes, we would like to see a higher strikeout rate than his 21.0% this season, and the matchup with the Nationals is likely to help him course-correct towards something closer to one per inning.
Over the last season and change, the Washington offense has done a good job of limiting strikeouts (19.0%) against right-handed pitching with its current collection of batters. Of course, the Nationals also have the lowest walk rate (5.7%) and a dismal .136 ISO. During this stretch, the only above-average hitter has been Jeimer Candelario.
Keep in mind for tournaments that The Masses will be loading up rosters with Musgrove and hitters from the Coors Field Extravaganza, so make appropriate adjustments.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $48
According to the first run of the Stokastic Top Pitcher Tool, it looks like RHP Logan Webb is going to be one of the most popular pitchers of the night. This makes sense given the various pending weather concerns and tough matchups for the other desirable pitching options. The preferred pivot is RHP Chris Bassitt, who has been in dreadful form but gets a home matchup against the anemic Oakland Athletics offense.
The main knocks against Webb are only fantasy related, but obviously that is what is important to you if you are reading this. Arizona has a much-improved offense, and leading Rookie of the Year candidate Corbin Carroll has been a huge difference-maker with the most home runs and stolen bases on the team. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker are borderline All-Stars with their recent play, and that makes any upside for Webb tougher to access, particularly with his good, but not great, strikeout results. If he were 10% to 15% cheaper, he would be listed above Musgrove today.
In summary, Webb is not a bad play, but with sooooooo many amazing offensive matchups on the board, it is going to be hard for him to be a DFS game changer while occupying so much of the salary cap.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Brayan Bello at Chicago White Sox — 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $39
The wild card for today is a tossup between RHPs Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito, who are squaring off in Chicago. Both are in play, though Bello wins out, with the salary discount being the main differentiator. In his last 10 starts, Bello has logged 56.2 innings, a 2.86 ERA and 3.87 FIP, and while he has been lucky, the 52 strikeouts against only half a dozen home runs are the most enticing aspect of his player profile.
On the whole, the ChiSox do not strike out a lot against right-handed hurlers. However — and this is important — Luis Robert Jr. (30.4%), Eloy Jimenez (29.2%) and Jake Burger (34.3%) have been a K-happy trio this season. If Bello can mitigate these key batsmen with his above-average 56.5% ground ball rate … look out!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: San Francisco Giants vs. RHP Zach Davies — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
Yes, absolutely load up on the Angels and Rockies for their Coors Field Extravaganza tonight, particularly with the warm 80-degree weather boosting an already amazing hitting environment, as evidenced by the 12-run game total. OK, now that we have addressed the obvious, let’s look at a couple other options on the West Coast.
There is no “K” in his name and no K’s in his game, as RHP Zach Davies carries a career strikeout rate of 6.7 per nine innings. While he has that up to eight this season, that is just a small-sample alert, as he has accrued only 31.2 innings and has a 7.11 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Walks have also been an issue, and it is just a matter of time before those are accompanied by home runs in the same game.
In his last two starts, Davies has allowed 15 runs (12 earned) in 6.2 innings. In seven starts, he has closed the book on the fifth inning only three times. This should be like batting practice for the Giants, who should feast on the meatballs that Davies is bringing to the party.
Mike Yastrzemski is dealing with a sore hamstring, but if he is unable to suit up tonight, that just opens the door for another discounted hitter. Look to the San Francisco bats with above-average power as core plays for a secondary stack to offset the Coors Field love. Joc Pederson, J.D. Davis, Michael Conforto, Thairo Estrada and LaMonte Wade Jr. all fit that requirement, and even with the sub-60-degree weather in the Bay Area, crooked numbers are in the forecast.
Main Slate Secondary Target: San Diego Padres vs. LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has both the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Diego Padres as desirable options. None of the main DFS sites, even Yahoo, did much to raise the salaries for the Angels and Rockies, which means those two teams are going to soak up a disproportionate amount of the pOWN% across the board.
On FanDuel, the entire Blue Jay’s projected lineup is priced at BOGO (buy-one, get one) rates. DraftKings inexplicably has Brandon Belt at $2,500, and while the opportunity cost is also losing out on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it lowers the average stack salary dramatically. On Yahoo, Belt is actually 12% higher than Guerrero, so while a full six-man stack is spendy, three- and four-man groupings are well within the average household budget.
San Diego, on the other hand, has Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto as two of the five highest salary cap hits on Yahoo. DraftKings has Tatis, Soto, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts with higher salaries than any hitter lacing up the spikes in Coors Field tonight, with the exception of Mike Trout.
Though his 4.89 ERA is the lowest of the last three seasons, LHP Patrick Corbin is just getting lucky, with his 6.31 xERA only a tick below last year’s 6.41 xERA and in line with his career-worst 6.31 ERA. The 5.74 strikeouts per nine innings are 1.3 fewer than the last two seasons, and other than some of his fly balls ending up as screaming line drives, he would be among the league leaders for home runs yet again. In 2021 he led the league with 37 home runs and 111 earned runs, last year it was 107 earned runs and 210 hits, and this year he currently leads the way with 108 hits allowed and has ceded the second-most home runs over this timeframe.
Load up on the aforementioned hitters, along with Gary Sanchez, Nelson Cruz and Ha-Seong Kim, as the antidote for the DFS version of Rocky Mountain fever.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Even after spending a whole segment above besmirching the good name of Patrick Corbin, we can still take to the sports wagering market to hedge out this strategy and have some fun.
Today the southpaw has a strikeout prop of 3.5 that is one to take note of in this matchup against San Diego. Looking at the new true odds feature from OddsShopper, we can see that Corbin stands out, with his -155 odds of notching four strikeouts and a “true odds” probability of -178, which indicates that this line is inefficient by nearly 5%.
The goal with Corbin will be for him to hang around in the game long enough to collect four punchouts. This season Cruz (33.8%), Soto (27.6%), Sanchez (23.8%), and lefties Jake Cronenworth (27.1%) and Trent Grisham (26.9%) all strike out well above league average against lefties. If Corbin can make it through the order twice, he should be able to cobble together four strikeouts.
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Final Thoughts for Friday, June 23 | MLB DFS Picks
The East Coast venues have some rain risk, with Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia carrying the most potential to be impacted by inclement weather. Fortunately, the Nationals are in San Diego; otherwise the notorious Washington decision makers would be adding to the variables. These situations all are in flux at the moment, so following the forecast will be key.
The Midwest has some rain as well, with Cincinnati, Cleveland and Detroit looking at precipitation, though fortunately there should be enough clearing that these games play without any stoppages.
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