Titans-Dolphins + Packers-Giants DFS Picks: Monday Night Mayhem Doubleheader! (December 11)

Monday Night Football brings the final doubleheader. Continuing our NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing MNF DFS analysis and picks for the twin bill.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and MNF DFS analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate featuring the Packers at the Giants and the Titans at the Dolphins, so get ready for Monday Night Mayhem, DFS-style!

Titans-Dolphins, Packers-Giants MNF NFL DFS Picks

Quarterbacks

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Tua Tagovailoa as the QB8 on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the full Week 14 player pool. Of course, tonight he is easily the top option, with a median fantasy projection that is 20% more than Jordan Love.

Tagovailoa projects to be on nearly 40% of all tournament rosters, so going another route — while daunting — is an easy way to gain differentiation. Though, considering that he is facing the 30th-ranked passing DVOA, that strategy definitely risks being buried by a multi-touchdown effort, with 300-plus yards on the table.

Tagovailoa has tossed just one touchdown in five of 12 games this season, and while he leads the league in passing yards, in four games he has tallied fewer than 250 yards. Despite being bad against the pass from an efficiency standpoint, Tennessee has ceded just 230.8 aerial yards per effort, while holding opposing quarterbacks to one or fewer scores in five of 12 matchups.

1. Tagovailoa: Wildly popular starting point for lineups.
2. Love: Projects for half the popularity of Tagovailoa but equal to the other two signal-callers combined.
3. Tommy DeVito: He has been sacked 20 times in the last three games, but despite averaging only 26 pass attempts under constant pressure, he has thrown for six scores during this stretch.
4. Will Levis: Topped 200 passing yards once (224) in the last four games, and that took an overtime period to get there.

Running Back

Saquon Barkley gets a great matchup against the Packers, who have allowed six running backs to run for 50-plus yards in the last four games. He does have a path to 20 touches if this game remains close. He has one rushing touchdown on the year, with four through the air.

Derrick Henry has run for two scores in each of the last two games. He is still among the league leaders with the second-most rushing yards this season, and his 70.1 per game is the sixth most among running backs with at least nine appearances. He left the game last week in the fourth quarter with a potential concussion and did not return, which led to Tyjae Spears wrapping up the quarter as well as overtime. Henry is not in the concussion protocol, but that injury and the extra period is what led to Spears getting a season-high 16 carries and six targets. Spears is the clear passing-down back, though Henry sees a couple of targets each game.

A.J. Dillon and Patrick Taylor will be the Green Bay running backs tonight with Aaron Jones out once again. Dillon has just one touchdown this season and even with Jones missing five games, he has been a bust. Taylor is a differentiation play and he has five carries for 40 yards along with two targets for one 4-yard reception. Dillon should get the early work, but Taylor still has standalone value with half a dozen touches as well as potential mop-up duty if the Packers can take care of business.

Raheem Mostert and rookie De’Von Achane are a devastating combo, particularly with teams worried about the Miami aerial attack. Mostert is second in the league with 16 touchdowns, and his 14 rushing scores lead the league. Achane has nine touchdowns in his six games, which is just wild. Tennessee has the best rushing DVOA in the league, but the Dolphins duo can literally score from anywhere on the field.

1. Barkley: Duh.
2. Henry: Still the King, but the reign is coming to an end.
3. Achane: Will be his toughest challenge to date.
4. Mostert: Just a tick behind his rookie teammate.
5. Spears: Nice discount; needs Miami to put points on the board early and often.
6. Taylor: This is the third season for the undrafted free agent. Take the $1,100 discount on DraftKings and the $1,800 savings on FanDuel over Dillon and don’t look back.
7. Dillon: Over the last three games he has 46 carries for 145 yards, which is a pedestrian 3.15 per tote. If he has a monster game tonight, so be it. It has been 16 games since he last topped 100 combined yards, and his touchdown luck at the end of last season was clearly a mirage.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill is likely to be on at least three-quarters of all tournament rosters, with teammate Jaylen Waddle coming in at around half that rate. Adding Tagovailoa to this combo is going to be the popular move.

The Green Bay youngsters are mostly healthy — well, except for Christian Watson, who is out again with a strained hamstring. That solidifies the floor for Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, with a half dozen targets as their baseline. Dontayvion Wicks becomes a tremendous discount dandy who should get a handful of looks and even Malik Heath is in play for tournament differentiation with his popularity projected in the high single-digits.

DeAndre Hopkins has 22 targets over the last three games, and he has logged 12 catches, 183 yards and a pair of touchdowns. The Miami defense will be covering him like a blanket, which means his rookie field general will need to work deeper into his reads, leading to bad throws or hurried passes.

Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt seem to be the most consistent options over the last three games, but Isaiah Hodgins and Sterling Shepard are still seeing the field. Guessing at which New York wideout will be the most productive tonight is probably the key to the entire slate with the massively top-heavy tournaments.

1. Hill: Highest median fantasy projection of anyone suiting up tonight, including the quarterbacks.
2. Waddle: Better on DraftKings with the full-PPR scoring format but still very much in play on FanDuel.
3. Doubs, Wicks and Reed: Sounds like a law firm; this trio has half the projected popularity of their Miami counterparts. Reed also returns punts.
4. Hopkins: Consummate professional in yet another lost season. Titans are all but eliminated from the playoffs.
5. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: Eight targets over the last two weeks are intriguing, particularly with Hopkins commanding all the attention.
6. Hyatt: Most talented, best upside and least experienced.
7. Robinson: Every target is an adventure with this guy.
8. Treylon Burks: Not on the injury report; played 10 snaps last week for his first action after suffering a concussion in Week 9, similar thesis to Westbrook-Ikhine.
9. Slayton and Shepard: Crafty veterans.
10. Chris Moore: Quietly the WR3; tenuous role on a run-first team and with Burks back in action.
11. Braxton Berrios: On the field for 63 offensive plays over the last two weeks, with one lonely target. Returns punts and kickoffs.
12. Cedric Wilson Jr.: Four targets in Week 11, none in the last two games; 105 snaps in these three games.
13. River Cracraft: Two targets last week, first looks since returning from injury in Week 11; 69 plays in this span.
14. Malik Heath: Last player worthy of a mention by name; should get a dozen snaps and a target or two with Watson out.

Tight End

This position is a barren wasteland; closing your eyes and picking any of the starters is probably the best recommendation, as they each project between 5 and 7 fantasy points.

1. Tucker Kraft: Six targets last week and a touchdown in the preceding game land him atop this list with fellow rookie Luke Musgrave on the injured reserve.
2. Chigoziem Okonkwo: The most expensive option, though he won’t bust any budgets. Trending up with 11 targets, seven receptions and 107 yards over his last two appearances.
3. Durham Smythe: He has the best quarterback and three targets in each of his last three healthy games.
4. Daniel Bellinger: Will be on the field a ton, but he has the worst quarterback. In the four games without Darren Waller, Bellinger has 10 targets while playing 85% of the snaps.

Defense and Special Teams

There are solid reasons to roster three of the four defensive units tonight. Sorry, G-Men.

1. Green Bay: The Packers have eight sacks, four fumbles and an interception over the last three games. DeVito has been sacked at least five times in each of his four starts, for a total of 26 quarterback takedowns.
2. Miami: Indianapolis got to Levis six times last week, and the rookie has been sacked at least four times in three of his last five starts. The Dolphins have 12 sacks and six interceptions over the last three tilts.
3. Tennessee: Extreme punt play; the Titans have only three interceptions on the season, though they do have seven fumble recoveries. In the last two games this unit has tallied seven sacks and recovered three fumbles.
4. New York: The last two tilts have been fruitful, with six sacks, six picks and three fumbles. The two games prior to that were no sacks and two picks. Love has been sacked twice in the last two games, and he has gone three games without a turnover.

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