We’re back with a massive 14-game NBA DFS slate on Monday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening.
NBA DFS Picks – Contrarian Plays For Today: November 8
Contrarian Stud — Tyrese Haliburton: Utah Jazz-Indiana Pacers
After a week of being one of the highest-owned players on every slate he was on, Tyrese Haliburton is the top contrarian stud on Wednesday. Even with this game having a 242-point total, the field is finding it difficult to build around Haliburton on DraftKings, as his price has risen to $9,800. Despite his price jump, however, Haliburton still grades out as one of the top value plays on the slate and a great “spend up to be contrarian” option in tournaments.
Stokastic has Haliburton projected to be only 9.00% owned on DraftKings. Compare that to his optimal percentage of 12.20%, and it’s clear why Haliburton looks so good in GPPs. Haliburton is averaging 50.8 DraftKings points per game coming into tonight’s action, and that’s right in line with the 52.88 Stokastic projects him for tonight in a pace-up spot against the Jazz. The opportunity cost of rostering Haliburton is certainly real with LaMelo Ball and other really strong plays scattered across his price range. That said, Haliburton’s upside is massive in this spot, and he’s an elite differentiation piece in tournaments.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Jordan Poole: Washington Wizards-Charlotte Hornets
There is plenty to like in Washington-Charlotte tonight, and it is probably the top game from a DFS perspective. From the Wizards side, Jordan Poole is the top contrarian mid-tier play on the entire slate at $7,400 on DraftKings. While his acclimation to the Wizards has been a bit rocky to start, Poole’s upside at this price is undeniable, especially in a game in which Washington is expected to be competitive.
Despite Poole’s on-court antics and less-than-stellar play, Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool has Poole projected to be optimal 5.10% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. The masses aren’t close to getting to Poole at this rate, however, with only 1.20% of lineups expected to roster him. Much of Poole’s poor play and lack of playing time this season can be attributed to Washington’s overall struggles as a whole. With the Wizards only 2.5-point underdogs against Charlotte tonight, those concerns are lessened in what is expected to be a competitive game. Presuming the Wizards can stay in this game for an entire four quarters, Poole is in a great spot to have his best game as a member of Washington.
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Contrarian Value — Julian Strawther: Golden State Warriors-Denver Nuggets
As DraftKings has done a much better job of consistently pricing up players, there has been a definite lack of viable value pieces priced under $4,000. As such, we’ve had to dumpster dive a bit for contrarian value, and that theme continues tonight with Julian Strawther. Strawther, the uber-athletic Nuggets rookie, amassed 21 points (8-for-13, 5-for-9 from 3), two rebounds and one assist across 19 minutes during Monday’s 134-116 win over the Pelicans. With the Nuggets trying to manage without the services of Jamal Murray, it’s likely Strawther’s role will continue to grow, as he’s proven to be a valuable asset for Denver.
Priced at the flat $3,000 on DraftKings, Strawther has a similar optimal percentage as Poole at 5.90%. As is also the case with Poole, the field isn’t buying into Strawther just yet, as only 2.50% of lineups are expected to roster him. While there is definitely some opportunity cost in using a roster spot on Strawther tonight, his $3,000 price tag opens up a completely different lineup construction than would otherwise be available. Better value could emerge as more injury news comes out, but for now Strawther is the top contrarian value play on the slate.
