The NBA is back with a monster 10-game slate on Tuesday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, including one super stud in an interesting spot against one of the league’s best teams.
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud — Kawhi Leonard: Los Angeles Clippers-Denver Nuggets
Much has been made of Los Angeles’ struggles since acquiring James Harden, with DFS players pretty much out on the entire Clippers roster. Losers of five straight games, Kawhi Leonard and co. head to Denver tonight in an effort to break that skid and finally get off the schneid. With Leonard, Paul George, Russell Westbrook and Harden all competing for touches, it’s been difficult for any of them to produce with any sort of consistency. However, since he is priced the lowest he’s been all season, Leonard is the best contrarian stud on the slate.
As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Leonard optimal 6.50% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 2.50% of the field expected to roster him, he’s one of the highest-graded leverage plays on the slate. Leonard has struggled in pretty much every area with Harden in the fold, averaging only 32.6 DraftKings points during this current four-game stretch. Despite his recent subpar play, Leonard is a proven DFS commodity with years’ worth of production at much higher price tags than the $8,200 he’s listed at tonight. He has massive upside at this inexpensive tag and is only four games removed from dropping 58.5 DraftKings points. With the Clippers reeling, expect the best he has to offer tonight in a primetime game against the Nuggets.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Zach Collins: San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder
Coming off a four-game slate last night where the good contrarian options were few and far between, there are numerous differentiators tonight with 10 games in play. Knowing that injury news can change pretty much everything in this article, Zach Collins currently stands out as the top contrarian mid-tier play at $6,400 on DraftKings.
Collins has been rock solid for the Spurs this season, averaging 30.3 DraftKings points per game. He is projected for 34.02 DraftKings points but isn’t getting nearly the love he should be getting, and he looks great as a contrarian option in tournaments. Stokastic’s tools currently have Collins projected to be optimal 10.20% of the time this slate plays out. With only 5.60% of the field expected to roster him, however, he stands out even at a loaded center position on DraftKings. With the masses not wanting to spend $6,400 on Collins, he’s a great way to get different without sacrificing any upside.
Contrarian Value — Kevin Love: Miami Heat-Charlotte Hornets
As DraftKings continues to do a much better job of consistently pricing up players, there seems to be a definite lack of viable value pieces priced under $4,000. As such, we’ve had to dumpster dive a bit for value, and that trend continues tonight, with Kevin Love standing out as the clear top contrarian value play on the board.
Love is currently the highest-graded leverage play on the board, with only 1.90% of lineups expected to roster him on DraftKings. Compare that to his 9.40% optimal percentage, and it’s clear why he looks so good as a spend-down option in tournaments. Although it’s unlikely that Love will put up a score that’s needed to win, his $3,800 price tag opens doors to roster construction that otherwise would be shut.
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