We’re back with a five-game NBA DFS slate on Monday. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, which include Tyrese Haliburton and Shaedon Sharp
NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today
Contrarian Stud —Tyrese Haliburton: Portland Trail Blazers-Indiana Pacers
After beginning the season as one of the most popular players on every slate he was on, Tyrese Haliburton has seen a big price increase and he’s the top contrarian stud tonight on DraftKings. He is coming into tonight’s action averaging 53.8 DraftKings points per game, and matched up tonight with one of the worst teams in the NBA, Haliburton couldn’t ask to be in a better spot than at home against the Trail Blazers.
At his relatively new $11,000 price tag, Haliburton is only projected to be 4.30% owned on DraftKings. Compare that to his 8.10% optimal percentage, and it makes sense why he stands out as a differentiator in tournaments. The Pacers are also catching the Blazers on the second half of a back-to-back, which is icing on the cake for Haliburton. If Portland can somehow keep this game close, he has as high of upside as any other player on the slate.
Contrarian Mid-Tier — Shaedon Sharpe: Portland Trail Blazers-Indiana Pacers
Trail Blazers-Pacers looks like the game of the night from a contrarian perspective, and Shaedon Sharpe is the highest-graded leverage play on the slate. While no one will confuse his numbers with Haliburton’s, Sharpe has been solid for the Trail Blazers in his second season, putting up 16.9 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 0.9 steals en route to averaging 30.4 DraftKings points per game. Although the matchup is really good for Indiana, it’s even better for Portland, as targeting the Pacers has been somewhat of a cheat code for DFS purposes.
As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Sharpe optimal 13.10% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 5.10% of rosters expected to roster him, however, Sharpe is one of the top GPP plays on the board. Portland may rest some guys on the latter half of a back-to-back, so make sure to watch Stokastic’s Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to stay updated on news.
Contrarian Value — Patrick Beverley: Los Angeles Lakers-Philadelphia 76ers
Pivoting off of the Portland-Indiana game, Patrick Beverley is the top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $3,500. While we’re back to dumpster diving a bit, as no one ever wants to roster Beverley, he’s projected to be optimal a whopping 20.40% of the time this slate plays out. With both Jaden Springer and Danuel House Jr. out for the 76ers, Beverley is emerging as arguably the top overall value play on the slate at his close-to-minimum price point.
Despite his cheap price tag and relatively high optimal percentage, only 12.90% of the field is expected to roster Beverley. He is grading out as the third-highest leverage play on the board and played 21 minutes on Saturday; it’s reasonable to think he will get a similar workload tonight. Plus, his $3,500 price tag opens up avenues to roster construction that otherwise would be closed.
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